FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 18

Photo: Denny Medley, USA Today Sports

As it seems to be every season, Week 18 daily fantasy is all about finding the situations where teams and players are most motivated. It is probably the trickiest week of the entire season to play. For a deeper dive into each team’s motivation this week, Jeff Bell wrote a great summary explaining each team’s motivations earlier this week.

It is helpful to break teams down into categories based on some past research by Footballguys’ own Danny Tuccito, who found that teams generally fall into four broad tiers:

Fighting to Make Playoffs

This is the top tier when it comes to fantasy performance compared to season averages and where we ideally want to target teams. Unfortunately, there are very few teams that fall into this category on the main slate:

Pittsburgh stands out as a team with extremely high motivation and a team total comfortably higher than their season average PPG. We will talk about a couple of Steelers in our top plays. The Dolphins would be an obvious target for DFS but for the fact that the team is down to their third-string quarterback (hence the Vegas total being 16% lower than their season average). New England is going to be incredibly motivated, and some will be scared off them because of the tough matchup against the Bills, but this is a sneaky spot for some fantasy upside.

FanDuel has also included the Sunday night game on the main slate this week. Green Bay will definitely be motivated. Win and they are in, regardless of earlier outcomes. The 27.0 implied Vegas total is also much higher than normal. This is a spot we can look to for safety. Detroit is on this list provisionally. If Seattle loses earlier, Detroit is playing to make the playoffs. If Seattle wins, then Detroit falls down into the next group: teams that have been fully eliminated from contention.

Fully Eliminated

It will be a surprise to some, but historically, the second-best grouping of teams from a fantasy perspective is those who have been fully eliminated from playoff contention. While these teams have nothing to play for, they also have no reason to rest players.

As we can in the table above, nearly half of the teams on this main slate fall into this category. Many will quickly pass over these teams when building lineups but there is sneaky potential for fantasy goodness in this grouping. Denver stands out as a team in a great spot to have a better-than-normal showing.

Fighting for Seeding Only

This is a group where we need to be wary of falling into a trap. While improving seeding may seem to be highly motivating from the outside, this has historically been a group of teams that underperforms fantasy expectations in Week 18. It is easy for game script (or the scores in other games) to lead to key starters resting in the second half. The bottom line is that health is often at least as important as seeding, with some caveats we will discuss below.

As we can see, the team totals in this group (outside of Baltimore) are the highest on the entire slate. These are teams we need to be extremely careful with. Players from these games are where we potentially fall into a trap. Viewing Week 18 motivation as a black-and-white thing, as opposed to shades of gray, can lead to mistakes.

In terms of individual teams on this list, the Eagles look like the safest on this list in terms of motivation. Their seeding motivation includes the potential of securing a bye, which is undeniably important. There is blowout potential here (and in San Francisco), but if the Eagles build a big lead, things most likely worked out well from a fantasy perspective. The Bills and Bengals are in a strange spot for obvious reasons. We definitely should be somewhat leery about their motivation, but the strange circumstances last week (which ended up being similar to a bye in terms of playing time) and clear seeding benefits to a win make these spots that are less likely to be traps. The two teams we should be especially worried about are Minnesota and Dallas. A win for either team only improves seeding in the case of a massive upset (Giants over Eagles or 49ers over Vikings).

Locked into Seeds

The worst category for Week 18 fantasy production is teams that are locked into their current playoff seed.

We only have three teams that fit that category this week and one of them is on this list provisionally. The Chargers will be locked into the fifth seed when their game kicks off only if the Ravens (9.5-point underdogs) do, in fact lose to the Bengals in the early game. Both the Buccaneers and Giants fall into the category of obvious teams to avoid in this spot.

Quarterback Positional Overview

Most of the top quarterbacks on this slate fall into the third category above, where they are just playing for seeding. This puts this group at higher risk than normal due to the fact that coaches are likely to pull these guys as soon as the game is secured, and there is added game script risk. Even with the added downside risk, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow stand out as having unmatched ceilings on this slate. Know the risk but we have to be on these guys due to upside. There is also potentially some sneaky upside in targeting quarterbacks from teams that have been fully eliminated. Historically, this group has performed well in Week 18 and many of these quarterbacks will go under-owned this week. We will highlight a pair of top options from this tier below

Top QB Plays

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia ($9,000)

The Eagles hoped that they would be able to lock down the top seed in the NFC and rest Hurts until the second week of the playoffs. That didn’t happen, which sets up a huge Week 18 game with a first-round bye and home field throughout the playoffs on the line against the Giants. It does not hurt that the Giants, locked into the sixth seed, are going to be resting key players. This is a spot where we should expect the Eagles to come out swinging and look to put this game away as early as possible. This is a distinct possibility given the Giants' lack of motivation, and we should not be surprised if we only get three quarters from Hurts. Regardless, the fantasy upside here is undeniable. Hurts has elite weapons and is always live for multiple rushing touchdowns.

Russell Wilson, Denver ($6,900) If the Bengals take care of business as big home favorites in the early game, the Chargers will lock up the 5th seed and have nothing to play for in their late afternoon matchup against the Broncos. Wilson is in a situation where padding in his stats in what could be an otherwise meaningless game has to look tempting. He has been mocked relentlessly throughout the season for his lack of statistical production. Fans have spent months tracking whether Wilson would end the season with more touchdown passes or bathrooms in his house (12).

and now his watch has ended pic.twitter.com/SBIa8QloiT

— Kent Weyrauch (@KentWeyrauch) January 1, 2023

In addition to being motivated to end the season on as high a note as possible against a defense resting starters, Wilson has shown some minor signs of progress of late. He played well in a pair of closes losses to Kansas City over the past month, with three total touchdowns in each game (including a pair of rushing touchdowns last week). This is a spot where taking a flier on Wilson and hoping for three or four touchdowns at a sub-$7K price tag seems worth the risk. Denver’s relatively modest 21.3 implied team total is a slate-high 33% higher than the team’s season average. We should definitely expect to see Wilson have one of his better statistical performances in this spot.

Other QBs to consider

Joe Burrow, Baltimore ($8,200) The playoff implications of this one for the Bengals are complicated due to the “no contest” last week and the NFL’s complicated solution announced Friday. Those within the Cincinnati organization were none too pleased by the announcement that despite clinching the AFC North, the Bengals could still have to play the Ravens on the road in the first round should Cincinnati lose in Week 18 and lose a coin toss. The result of the decision is a highly motivated Bengals team that still has to win to lock up a home game in the first round of the playoffs. Having also played less than a quarter last week, the team is fresh and could be in need of a challenge to get refocused mentally for a playoff push after a very stressful week. In his career, Burrow has played one home game against the Ravens. He threw for 525 yards and 4 touchdowns in that game. Overall, Burrow has played Baltimore three times over the past two seasons and averaged 386 passing yards and 3.0 total touchdowns per game.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland ($6,800) This is a boom-bust play with more upside than we might think at first glance. Watson has been certifiably bad since returning from a long suspension. In five games, he has averaged 174.4 passing yards and 1.0 passing touchdowns per game. He has played in some tough weather conditions and needed to knock some rust off, but the time for excuses has passed. Watson knows that. It is going to be a long offseason for him, given his lackluster performance, massive contract, and lack of goodwill given what he did off the field. Watson has a chance to at least end on a high note by leading Cleveland to a big win over the division-rival Steelers. Watson has obvious rushing upside and has shown a few flashes (including three second-half passing touchdowns last week) of his turning back into the player who was a fantasy force in Houston.

Running Back Positional Overview

Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler look like solid plays on paper, but I don’t trust the spot for either. Both teams have little to play for, and each guy could benefit from some rest with the playoffs on deck. If you are not paying up for either of the two expensive guys, there are still plenty of strong options in the mid tier. Miles Sanders, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Ken Walker III, Cam Akers, and Tyler Allgeier stand out as the best options on this slate.

Top RB Plays

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh ($7,200)

The Steelers are in a sneaky strong spot in Week 18. The Browns will be motivated to play spoiler, but this is clearly a Cleveland team in turmoil. Jadeveon Clowney was sent home, and the general vibe around the Browns is not good. Meanwhile, the Steelers have fought against all odds to get to the point where they have a realistic shot at making the playoffs with a Week 18 win and a little bit of help. The Steelers have leaned heavily on Harris, who has had at least 24 opportunities (carries plus targets) in each game of the Steelers' three-game winning streak. Over that stretch, he has averaged 20.7 carries and 4.0 targets per game. Harris has averaged 101.3 total yards in his last three. Harris is one of the few backs on this slate whose workload is virtually assured and completely without any game script concerns. The Browns defense gives up the sixth-most fantasy points (23.9 FanDuel PPG) to opposing running backs, and Pittsburgh is a home favorite. It is also worth noting that Harris has simply looked better of late as he gets further removed from the foot early-season foot injury.

Najee Harris before the bye:

3.3 YPC
1 rushing TD
7 broken tackles

Najee Harris since the bye:

4.2 YPC
5 rushing TDs
13 broken tackles

Past his foot injury, healthy now, totally different runner. #Steelers

— Alex Kozora (@Alex_Kozora) January 6, 2023

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia ($6,700) The Eagles rushing attack has suffered at least as badly from the absence of Hurts as has the passing attack. Sanders has had a pair of down games lined up next to Gardner Minshew. However, it is worth remembering that in his last four games with Hurts at quarterback, Sanders averaged 95.6 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game and had a pair of 28-plus point fantasy games. With the Giants expected to rest some key defenders and Hurts still nursing a sore shoulder, this is a spot where the Eagles would love to be able to dominate on the ground without having to rely on Hurts’ legs. We have seen the ceiling Sanders is capable of (three games of nearly 30 FanDuel points), and this is a spot where he could post his fourth monster game of the season.

Other RBs to consider

Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta ($6,500) Over his last three games, Allgeier has averaged 116.0 total yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game. The rookie will be motivated to continue to try to prove that he is the long-term answer for the Falcons at the position. While the Buccaneers initially talked about playing to win, we are now hearing that Tampa Bay is likely to rest some key players and plans to play all three quarterbacks on the roster in what is a meaningless final week. Allgeier has a relentless, physical running style that is no fun for opposing defenses, even when they are fully motivated. For a Buccaneers unit with one eye looking forward to a likely first-round matchup against the Cowboys, it is easy to imagine a game script where Allgeier has a big second half against backups.

We will say it again...Tyler Allgeier is good at football

📺 FOX || NFL+ pic.twitter.com/RZCcqaizmi

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) January 1, 2023

Ken Walker III, Seattle ($7,700) Seattle has as much to play for as anyone on the slate. A loss eliminates them from playoff contention. A win puts them in a position where they would need just a little bit of help (a Lions win). Walker has been on a tear in recent weeks. He has 240 rushing yards over the last two weeks, including 133 last week against a stout Jets run defense. The Seahawks are a healthy 6-point home favorite against the Rams. Walker was off to a hot start against the Rams in their previous meeting (36 yards on just three carries) before getting injured. Los Angeles gives up the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing backs (20.8 FanDuel PPG).

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams ($7,300) Akers has been just as hot as Ken Walker III over the past couple of weeks. He has 241 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns over his last two outings. He has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise disastrous season for the Rams. Looking to carry his momentum into the offseason, this is a spot where we should see a heavy dose of Akers with the Rams looking to eliminate their division rivals from the playoffs. Seattle allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs (25.5 FanDuel PPG).

Wide Receiver Positional Overview

We do not need to pay up at running back this week, which means we have some cap space to play around with this week at wide receiver. Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb and the Eagles duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith all stand out as players worth potentially paying up for. You can easily fit one of that group into your lineup, and it is unusually easy to fit in two top wideouts this week.

Top WR Options

Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati ($8,500)

In three career games against the Ravens, Chase has averaged 125.3 receiving yards per game. The Bengals are going to be motivated to make a statement against the Ravens. First, to show their displeasure with the NFL’s novel solution to the situation to the canceled matchup against the Bills that opened the possibility of the Bengals having to play at Baltimore in the first round despite winning the division. Second, it is a chance for a dress rehearsal against the defense the team is very likely to be facing next week. Chase has generally been excellent this season, especially of late. The Cincinnati offense seemed to finally find its footing midway through the Week 6 game against the Saints. Since that game, Chase has averaged 7.8 catches for 102.8 yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game. He has been especially good at home, averaging 128.0 receiving yards per game in his last nine home starts.

Lots of talk in the #Bengals locker room today, about the NFL's postseason changes (below).

As Ja'Marr Chase's interview was finishing-up... Ted Karras walked by & shouted:
"Let's settle it the real way and f***ing win."

If the Bengals win this Sunday, there is no coin flip. https://t.co/rb5k3LvVJv pic.twitter.com/x6nO6qL2QK

— Caleb Noe (@CalebNoeTV) January 6, 2023

Jahan Dotson, Washington ($5,900)

The Commanders have been eliminated from playoff contention and will be starting rookie quarterback Sam Howell. The Cowboys have limited motivation in this matchup, especially if the Eagles are taking care of business against the Giants backups (a Philadelphia win locks Dallas into the fifth seed). With Washington looking to build some momentum going into the offseason, a big game from the rookies Dotson and Howell should be the goal. Dotson has played at least 75% of the snaps in four straight games. Over that stretch, he is averaging 4.5 catches for 68.0 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. Those are great numbers for a player priced under $6K. On a slate where we are not as desperate for value as usual, it is still helpful to save some cap space on our WR3. Dotson opens the door to high-dollar stacks like Hurts-Brown, Burrow-Chase, or Allen-Diggs. From a narrative perspective, Dotson also has a shot to set a franchise record for rookie touchdowns.

Jahan Dotson on being one touchdown away from tying the franchise rookie record

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) January 6, 2023

Jerry Jeudy, Denver ($6,600)

Jerry Jeudy has averaged 8.9 targets, 6.8 receptions, 77.1 receiving yards, and 0.7 touchdowns per game in his last six healthy games. There is a budding connection with Russell Wilson, and the duo needs to keep building off of the recent momentum as both head into pivotal 2023 seasons. The Chargers are likely to rest key starters on both sides of the ball with a high likelihood that they will be locked into the fifth seed regardless of what happens in this game. Stacking Wilson and Jeudy is a low-priced stack with decent upside. We saw Jeudy’s upside with an 8-73-3 receiving line in a Week 14 home loss to the Chiefs.

Other WRs to Consider

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota ($9,000) It is hard not to get caught up in the narrative angles in Week 18. Jefferson is 194 yards away from breaking Calvin Johnson’s all-time record for most receiving yards in a season. He is also 229 yards away from being the first wide receiver ever to hit 2,000 yards. Would the Vikings risk a heavy usage day from Jefferson in a likely meaningless game on the eve of the playoffs? I am dubious, which is why Jefferson is not a slam dunk top play. However, we should at least be open to the possibility. Jefferson was obviously frustrated after being virtually shut out last week against the Packers (one catch that came late in the game) and made clear afterward that he wanted to be moved around the formation more to make it harder for teams to take him away. Against a Bears defense that is incredibly banged up, Jefferson might be able to name his number.

Bears cornerbacks vs. the Vikings on Sunday:

Jaylon Johnson - IR
Kindle Vildor - IR
Kyler Gordon - Questionable
Jaylon Jones - OUT
Josh Blackwell - IR
Harrison Hand
Breon Borders
Mike Ojemudia

Hand, Borders, and Ojemudia have combined to play 43 snaps this season.

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) January 6, 2023

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets ($7,100) The Jets offense has collapsed down the stretch, scoring just four touchdowns over their last 56 possessions. The offensive struggles have directly led to the Jets being eliminated from playoff contention and turning to Joe Flacco in Week 18. New York can still play spoiler against division rival Miami and Wilson will be motivated to end on a high note. A big game may even be enough for him to win offensive rookie of the year. Wilson averaged 6.0 catches, 71.3 receiving yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game in Flacco’s three previous starts. He faces a Dolphins defense that gives up 27.5 FanDuel PPG to opposing wide receivers.

Tight End Positional Overview

It is ugly at tight end this week. Not a single player projects for more than 10.0 FanDuel points. Plus, the top three guys on the slate (George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson) are at risk of spending much of the second half of their games on the bench. As noted above, it is tough to trust teams that are only playing for seeding at this point of the season. Unfortunately, there are not any other true standout options. Dallas Goedert is at a bit less risk of an early trip to the bench than the other top guys because the Eagles are at least playing to lock up a bye and would be able to rest him next week instead. That is enough to make him the top overall play at the position this week.

Top TE Options

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia ($6,200)

Goedert has not played with Jalen Hurts since Week 10. In his last two games with Hurts prior to getting injured, Goedert put up 11 catches for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has been decent in two Gardner Minshew starts since returning from the injury, averaging 3.0 catches for 56 yards. In a brutal week for tight end options, Goedert has a solid enough combination of floor and ceiling.

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota ($7,200)

Since coming over to the Vikings in a midseason trade, Hockenson has seen a whopping 85 targets in just nine games. His full-season pace with the Vikings extrapolates of 111 catches for 950 yards and 6 touchdowns. In a season where tight end fantasy production has been elusive and very few players at the position have seen targets consistently, Hockenson’s massive target numbers stand out as a rare bright spot. We do have some motivation concerns in this spot. Minnesota is locked into the third seed unless either Philadelphia or San Francisco suffers a massive upset, so this is a higher-risk play than it may seem at first glance. That being said, every tight end on this slate comes with a relatively low floor.

Other TEs to consider

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh ($5,500) Freiermuth has scored just one touchdown since Week 2 and has not shown a massive ceiling. He is still one of the safer low-priced plays at the position. He has at least three catches in 12 of 15 games this season and is averaging 4.2 receptions per game. Freiermuth did catch seven touchdowns as a rookie, and it feels like there is more of a ceiling here than the recent production numbers might indicate.

David Njoku, Cleveland ($5,400) The theme has been that we are grading on a curve at the tight end position this week. That continues with David Njoku. He had a big game in his first start with Deshaun Watson (7-59-1 in Week 14), but the duo has struggled to find consistency since. Getting Watson on the same page with their talented, high-priced tight end who is also signed long term is likely a Week 18 priority for the Browns.

Top Defenses

Minnesota Vikings ($3,700)

The Vikings may not have much to play for in Week 18. However, a matchup against Bears backup Nathan Peterman is tough to ignore. This Chicago offense is almost entirely dependent on Justin Fields making plays to move the ball. With Fields out, do not expect the Bears to put many points on the board.

Miami Dolphins ($3,500)

The Dolphins are at home against the struggling Jets offense and 37-year-old Joe Flacco. The Jets implied team total of 17.3 is one of the lowest on the entire slate and Miami is a solid home favorite. Getting a home favorite facing a backup quarterback for just $3,500 is always going to be enticing. Add to that the fact that the Dolphins have generated multiple sacks in eight straight games and this is a great spot to target.

Denver Broncos ($3,600)

Las Vegas clearly expects the Chargers to be resting key starters in this game. The Broncos are three-point home favorited, and the Chargers implied team total of 18.3 points is well below their season average. If the Ravens lose in the early game, the Chargers will be locked into the fifth seed, and we could see Chase Daniel instead of Justin Herbert.