The Guru and the Godfather: Week 18

Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck, USA Today Sports

John "The Guru" Norton and Gary "The Godfather of IDP" Davenport are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2022 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

It's Week 18, which means that in most IDP leagues, the season is over. With that in mind, the Guru and the Godfather have bellied up to the bar one last time to discuss the best and worst of the year that was—and to offer a few tips for fantasy managers who stretched out the campaign for one more week.

1. Looking back at the 2022 season, which defensive lineman smashed your expectations by the widest margin? Which linebacker? Which defensive back?

Guru: I liked Josh Sweat heading into the season, but because the Eagles rotate so many players along the defensive line, my expectations were more along the lines of a decent DL2 or quality DL3. Instead, Sweat piled up career-high numbers in tackles at 31 solos and 17 assists, while his 11 sacks were four more than his previous best for one season.

Drue Tranquill is another player I thought highly of right out of the gate, but again, I viewed him as a high-floor LB3 with a little upside. That was enough for me to pick him up in several leagues, but I certainly did not expect him to be the LB6 on the season.

Jalen Pitre, however, was, to me, the biggest surprise across all positions. I loved his potential and skill set but was concerned that he would be stuck in a Lovie Smith, Tampa-2 style of defense that would limit his opportunity by lining him up way off the ball most of the time. That was not the case at all, and it quickly became obvious that the situation and role would be a positive. That, along with his talent and the marginal competition around him, made Pitre NFL’s leading tackler at the safety position and the fantasy game’s DB1 by a wide margin.

Godfather: For this writer, the biggest smash of 2022 along the defensive line has to be the most obvious—Maxx Crosby of the Las Vegas Raiders. It's not that Crosby's fourth season wasn't expected to be good—he logged 56 tackles and eight sacks in 2021 on the way to the Pro Bowl. But the four-year, $94 million deal Crosby got from Las Vegas looks like a relative bargain after he obliterated last year's numbers with 84 tackles and 11.5 sacks. Entering 2022, Crosby was considered by most a high-floor DL2. In 2023? He'll be in the conversation to be the first defensive lineman drafted.

Tranquill's an excellent call at linebacker, but he had company among surprises in the top-10 linebackers. For most of last summer, the belief was that Shaquille Leonard and Bobby Okereke were the Colts linebackers to roster—in that order. Even once we knew that Leonard wouldn't be ready for Week 1, Franklin was viewed as no more than a stopgap option—a temporary fix. Instead, he emerged as an every-down force who finished the season inside the top five in tackles and fantasy points among linebackers—and even on those brief occasions when Leonard was out there, Franklin was with him.

Pitre was fantastic for fantasy managers this season, but for a big chunk of the 2022 campaign, it was Kansas City Chiefs cornerback LJarius Sneed who led all defensive backs in fantasy points. Sneed isn't just the only cornerback in the league with 100 tackles entering Week 18. He's the only one with 90. The defensive back spot is annually littered with surprises. But Sneed was the biggest of all in 2022.

2. Now that the 2022 IDP campaign is winding down, which defensive lineman was the biggest disappointment? Which linebacker? Which defensive back?

Guru: Disappointment is a relative term. It is disappointing when a key player is injured and misses time, but if he was productive before the injury, that doesn’t necessarily make the player a disappointment to me.

Chandler Jones would be my answer here if not for a late-season surge. Instead, I’ll go with Montez Sweat. This is a guy in a great situation with an excellent supporting cast on a team that entered the campaign with high hopes and grand expectations. His eight sacks are solid at a glance, but Sweat was wildly inconsistent and was feast or famine. His eight sacks came in six games. In nine other games, Sweat posted no more than four points with an average of less than three.

Myles Jack battled an injury late in the season, but his fantasy value was in the dumpster long before that. Out of the gate, it looked like he would be a good fit in a Steelers’ defense that was starving for a leader and playmaker in the middle. The further we got into the season, the more it became obvious that was not the case. Jack’s role and production were heading in the wrong direction well before he was banged up.

My biggest disappointment this year was Marcus Maye. What makes this one tough is trying to figure out if it was injury related or just a poor showing. Maye opened the year with a big game but struggled with nagging injuries nearly the entire season. He was in and out of the lineup, missing six games (seven if you count this week). I’m not giving up on him from a dynasty perspective, but my expectations for 2023 will be tempered.

Godfather: As Mr. Norton said, disappointment is relative. Washington's Chase Young disappointed, but it's hard to fault him given the ACL tear he spent a chunk of the season recovering from. With Trey Hendrickson of the Bengals, though, health wasn't the issue—his reliance on sacks for production was. Given that reliance, the writing was on the wall that a downturn would cause a free fall in fantasy production. Sure enough, after a DL7 finish in 2021, Hendrickson barely cracked the top 50 in 2022.

I won't pretend to be surprised by Myles Jack disappointing—if you've read my work in years past, you know I've never been a fan. But as the season progressed, I had to navigate the Five Stages with Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah of the Browns. As much as I loved the talent coming out of Notre Dame, it hasn't come close to equating to statistical production. He's just not the guy I hoped he'd be. Sigh.

Anyone disappointed by defensive backs deserves to be—it's a position where expectations and letdowns go together like Burger King and heartburn. But seeing both Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates fail to come close to last year's tackle production was more than a little surprising. Bell salvaged some value with a career year in interceptions, but after averaging over 100 tackles a season over his first four years in the NFL, Bates has 35 solo stops and ranks well outside the top 75 at his position.