*Statistics cited are a blend of stats after Week 17 and Week 18 and rankings are reflective of all 32 teams*
These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
The Cowboys are 2.5-point favorites despite being on the road in Tampa Bay in this one. The Over/Under is set at 45.5 as two capable offenses will face off against two of the best defenses in the league. Before building out your roster, decide who you think is going to win the game and then go from there. I've got the Cowboys winning as their +125 point differential on the season is worlds better than Tampa Bay's -45 point differential. But Tom Brady is plenty capable of winning this one at home. Make sure your roster fits the narrative of how you've decided the game is going to play out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady - Captain/Flex
Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich have not been good this season as they've been conservative but somehow Tom Brady still ranks third in passing yards per game (288.1) and 12th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5). Brady leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks seventh in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and seventh in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and somehow there's room for more passing success moving forward. Perhaps Week 17 was a sign of things to come when Brady threw for 432 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Panthers to win the NFC South. The Cowboys defense has been solid this season but they have struggled down the stretch against the pass. From Weeks 12-17, Dallas only ranked 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed. If Bowles and Leftwich get out of their own way and allow the offense to run through the passing game, Brady could have a big performance.
Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End
Chris Godwin - Flex Only
Chris Godwin ranks seventh in targets per game (9.6), sixth in catches per game (7), and 20th in receiving yards per game (69.1). He's the engine of the passing game and with Dallas' pass defense struggling of late, should turn his double-digit targets in this one into a big game. The issue for Godwin is the lack of touchdowns as he has just three touchdowns on the season. Considering his price he is a much better flex play than Captain play.
Mike Evans - Captain Only
Mike Evans put the Buccaneers passing offense in overdrive in Week 17 against the Panthers to win the NFC South by finally having a blowup game by catching 10 of 12 targets for 207 yards and 3 touchdowns. Evans is capable of these huge games because he's the beneficiary of go balls deep down the field from Brady. As already noted, Dallas' secondary is struggling as of late so another big game could be coming for Evans here. Evans does boast a significant amount of risk here based on just one strong performance.
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