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Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Thursday Night Special
Carson Wentz MORE than 225.5 passing yards
Justin Fields MORE than 165.5 passing yards
- We are taking advantage of the Thursday night boosted odds (3.5X instead of 3X) and going with a correlation play based upon both quarterbacks having better than expected passing nights.
- There is a narrative element here for Fields and the Bears coaching staff. Fields personally and the passing scheme generally have been under intense scrutiny. Playing in primetime is a major opportunity to change the narrative with a strong passing performance, especially considering how low the bar of expectations (and the passing prop) are.
- Fields is coming off of a strong performance against the Vikings last week. He ranked 13th in passing EPA (1.21) and 11th in points earned per play (.196).
"That's not going to be the best I ever play in my life."
— Bears Talk (@NBCSBears) October 12, 2022
Justin Fields played well against the Vikings, but he didn't view a stellar half as an arrival. He and the Bears believe bigger things are coming (via @Schrock_And_Awe)https://t.co/piZgT5UG76
- Washington has given up the 13th-most passing yards this season (255 per game).
- Wentz’s production has been feast or famine this season. He struggled against two of the league’s hottest defenses (Dallas and Philadelphia). However, in his other three games, he has thrown for 313, 337, and 359 passing yards.
4: Star Runners
Nick Chubb MORE than 89.5 rushing yards
Rhamondre Stevenson MORE than 75.5 rushing yards
- Nick Chubb has been the best back in the NFL in 2022. He has rushed for 113 or more yards in 80% of his games this season.
- Chubb has faced the Patriots defense once in his career and rushed for 131 yards.
You can't keep saying its just bad tackling when every time you watch Nick Chubb he breaks off one of these runs. #Browns #Patriots pic.twitter.com/UFEeHgBHWK
— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) October 11, 2022
- Rhamondre Stevenson is coming off of a breakout performance in Week 5 against the Lions. He carried the ball 25 times for 161 yards and played 90% of the offensive snaps.
Rhamondre Stevenson is in line for a significant workload Sunday against a Browns defense that has allowed 440 rushing yards over the past two weeks. pic.twitter.com/Xp1ZAltA23
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 12, 2022
- With Damien Harris sidelined for the next couple weeks, Stevenson should dominate backfield snaps and rushing attempts for the Patriots. New England is 9th in the NFL with 138 rushing yards per game.
3: Receivers in Pitt
Chris Godwin MORE than 65.5 receiving yards
George Pickens MORE than 50.5 receiving yards
- Last week, we doubled up on passing/receiving prop overs in the Pittsburgh-Buffalo game and all four legs hit. We will continue to target this Steelers pass defense and rise the surprising productivity of rookies Kenny Pickett and George Pickens with positive passing-game correlation plays.
- The Steelers have allowed a league-high 1,106 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers (221 yards per game).
- The Steelers gave up 424 passing yards to Josh Allen last week and it could have easily been 500-plus if the Bills did not play it conservative in the second half.
- The task is no easier this week for Pittsburgh’s beat up pass defense. Next to Allen, no quarterback has been hotter than Tom Brady. He has back-to-back games with at least 350 passing yards.
- It is no coincidence that Brady’s leap in production has coincided with Chris Godwin’s return to the lineup. Over the last two weeks, Godwin has caught 13 of 16 targets for 120 yards. As his health continues to progress, expect Godwin’s production to increase moving forward.
Great route by Chris Godwin. Fully sells the out then stomps upfield.
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) October 12, 2022
Watch way he rips his shoulder down immediately after the catch. This turns him into a missile. Protects himself AND hammers the DB.
Ultra quick trigger from catch-to-power through contact. pic.twitter.com/AgqhPHYy6F
- George Pickens has emerged over the past two weeks as the Steelers best offensive player. He has 185 receiving yards over his last two and now has 164 receiving yards in six quarters of football with Kenny Pickett at quarterback.
George Pickens is going to be a stud in the NFL for a long time.
— Luke Sawhook 🪚🪠(@lukesawhook) October 12, 2022
pic.twitter.com/rzoTjj4Ot5
- The game script sets up perfectly again for Pickens. The Steelers are 8.5-point underdogs and likely to be playing from behind. Pittsburgh can’t run the ball (29th in rushing yards) and is going to be forced to throw aggressively.
2: Another Seattle shootout
Marquise Brown MORE than 75.5 receiving yards
Ken Walker MORE than 65.5 rushing yards
- Over the last two weeks, Seattle has scored 80 points and given up 84 points. That is an average of 82 points per game. The Seahawks’ last meeting against the Cardinals was another high-scoring affair, with Seattle winning 38-30. This is a correlation play based upon a belief that Seattle will again be involved in a game with more offensive production than expected.
- The Seahawks have rushed for 386 yards over the last two weeks with both Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker putting up big numbers. Penny suffered a season-ending injury, which opens the door for Walker to dominate rushing attempts moving forward.
Watching some tape for my Week 6 film room piece at ESPN…#Seahawks rookie RB Ken Walker III.
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) October 12, 2022
This looks like his college tape at Michigan State.
Zone scheme. Find open daylight. And show the explosive play ability. pic.twitter.com/Wb5qp7hbOh
- Walker looks the part of a potential breakout star. He won the Doak Walker award for best college football running back last season and was drafted 41st overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. He is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt. Walker ran a 4.38-second forty-yard dash at the NFL Combine and that speed is evident when watching his NFL film. He is a bit play waiting to happen.
- There is one more week until DeAndre Hopkins comes back to siphon some targets away from Brown. Until then, expect Brown to continue to see massive opportunity. He has seen at least 10 targets in each of his last four games.
- Brown has three straight games with at least 78 receiving yards.
1: Mostert emerging
Kirk Cousins MORE than 18.5 fantasy points
Raheem Mostert MORE than 11.5 fantasy points
- First things first. Check the injury status of Mostert before locking in this play. He was held out of practice on Wednesday with a knee injury but as of Thursday morning, it is entirely unclear whether this is an actual issue or just a minor ailment and pseudo veteran’s day off.
- Assuming we get positive reports about Mostert’s health, this is a great spot for him and he should top 11.5 fantasy points. Over the past two weeks, he has played 72% and 69% of the snaps and dominated backfield touches for the Dolphins.
Raheem Mostert still has the juice 🚀
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) October 12, 2022
spoke about it on Stats vs. Film (timestamps included)
With Skylar Thompson starting, expect him to see ~15 touches against the Vikings, coupled with Mike McDaniel's creativity pic.twitter.com/R3CD8IuyFB
- For his career, Mostert has averaged .94 fantasy points per touch. He has averaged 18 touches per game over his last two outings.
- The Vikings have given up the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
- Miami is allowing 22.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, fourth-most in the league.
