Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Thursday Night Special
Tom Brady MORE than 284.5 passing yards
Lamar Jackson MORE than 209.5 passing yards
- We start with a positive correlation play on Thursday night. The angle here is the idea that the greatest quarterback of all time and one of the best young quarterbacks in the game bring out the best in each other, and both top relatively modest passing totals.
- Over the last four weeks, Brady has averaged 317.3 passing yards per game and thrown for more than 285 yards in all but one of those games.
- The Ravens have given up the fourth-most passing yards (280 per game) this season, which bodes well for Brady.
- Leonard Fournette has been one of the least efficient running backs in the league (-66.3 rushing yards above expected), and the Tampa Bay offense has been getting almost nothing on early-down rushes. This led to a testy exchange with offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich when questioned by a reporter about the abysmal numbers on first down runs. Expect this offense to look different in the coming weeks as pressure builds on Leftwich.
Tom Brady ended his brief retirement and the #GoBucs went all in on the roster and salary cap in 2022. The result has been an atrocious offense, and coordinator Byron Leftwich is looking more and more like the fall guy. https://t.co/8LWPlGluiK
— Sports by Tampa Bay Times (@TBTimes_Sports) October 23, 2022
- The numbers all suggest the Buccaneers should be more aggressive throwing the ball on early downs and we could see the team lean more heavily on Brady’s arm.
- Lamar Jackson has topped 210 passing yards in four of seven games.
- The Buccaneers allowed a 126.5 passer rating to P.J. Walker last week on over 8.0 yards per attempt.
4: Field Day
Justin Fields MORE than 14.5 fantasy points
Dak Prescott MORE than 19.5 fantasy points
- We are going with another positive correlation play projecting two productive quarterback performances.
- The fantasy point over is extremely attractive here, given what Fields has been doing with his legs. He has run for at least 47 yards in each of his last five games.
- Over the last two weeks, Fields has averaged 11.5 fantasy PPG as a runner. The Cowboys have given up the ninth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks.
- Fields is showing noticeable improvement, and the offensive design is finally starting to better cater to his strengths.
Justin Fields made some strides in the right direction on Monday night. Luke Getsy made some strides in the right direction as a play-caller on Monday night. They may be onto something.
— Patrick K. Flowers (@PatrickKFlowers) October 26, 2022
More in this week's Fields Film: https://t.co/5nGfr9Kwkm
- Expect for Dak Prescott to carry more of the offensive load with Ezekiel Elliott out. While Tony Pollard is a capable fill-in, he has never carried it more than 14 times in an NFL game. Pollard is also likely to see more touches in the passing game than Elliott.
- Prescott is due to get more involved as a runner. The Bears have given up the second-most rushing yards and three touchdowns (tied for most) to opposing quarterbacks.
3: New QBs in Indy
Jonathan Taylor MORE than 17.5 fantasy points
Taylor Heinicke MORE than 14.5 fantasy points
- The storylines here would be quite different with Carson Wentz returning to Indianapolis to face his hand-picked replacement, Matt Ryan. Instead, we get Taylor Heinicke versus newly-elevated Sam Ehlinger.
- The promotion of Ehlinger has a chance to be a huge boon to Jonathan Taylor. Ehlinger is a major threat with his legs. He ran for 1,903 yards and 33 touchdowns in college at Texas. His athleticism should help open up lanes for Taylor.
- This Washington defense is fresh off of allowing 28.6 fantasy points to Aaron Jones.
- Footballguys projectors Maurile Tremblay (16.3), Justin Freeman (15.5), and Jason Wood (14.7) are unanimous in projecting Heinicke for more than 14.5 fantasy points.
It was really easy to pick up on an increased level of enthusiasm from the Commanders offense this past Sunday. Whatever the reason for that — Taylor Heinicke's addition to the lineup, better third-down success, etc. — hopefully it continues https://t.co/KEI2YMyrnt
— Pete Hailey (@PeteHaileyNBCS) October 27, 2022
- Heinicke performed well last week, bringing a spark to a unit with an underrated stable of playmakers.
2: Elite WRs
Davante Adams MORE than 18.5 fantasy points
Chris Olave MORE than 14.5 fantasy points
- We know that Davante Adams is an elite fantasy wide receiver. We may soon need to start viewing Chris Olave in a similar way.
- Olave leads the NFL in air yards (912), with only Tyreek Hill within 195 yards of his league-leading total.
The cool thing about Chris Olave's impressive rookie year production is that they aren't running him on many slants and he doesn't get a lot of "gimmes." Very few mickey-mouse routes, just big-boy NFL WR1 type duties.
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 26, 2022
- Olave is Top 10 in the NFL in receiving yards despite missing a game and a half with a concussion. He has 13-plus targets in half of his career games. His opportunity has been massive.
- Adams is averaging 19.7 fantasy PPG and has a great matchup against a Saints defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
- Over their last four games, the Saints have allowed the following receiving lines to top opponent wide receivers: DeAndre Hopkins (10-103-0), JaMarr Chase (7-132-2), Tyler Lockett (5-104-2), DK Metcalf (5-88-1) and Justin Jefferson (10-147-0). That is four straight weeks with the opposing WR1 topping 18.5 fantasy points.
1: Sloppy in Seattle
Geno Smith LESS than 240.5 passing yards
Daniel Jones LESS than 199.5 passing yards
- The forecast in Seattle calls for rain and winds of 10-15 miles per hour. If the weather ends up being even a little bit worse than currently projected, it could impact the passing games.
- These are two teams that do not need an excuse to go with run-heavy game plans. Ken Walker and Saquon Barkley have looked like two of the most talented running backs in the league over the last couple of weeks.
Ken Walker III deserves all the praise he's receiving after rushing for 168 yards against the Chargers.
— Corbin K. Smith (@CorbinSmithNFL) October 25, 2022
But the rookie back couldn't have asked for better blocking than he received on his 74-yard touchdown.
A closer look at the play: pic.twitter.com/ynaRQuWb8k
- Daniel Jones has topped 200 passing yards just three times in his last ten starts.
- With DK Metcalf out for Seattle and the Giants missing much of their wide receiver corps, nearly all of the individual wide receiver versus cornerback matchups favor the defense.
