Navigating Crowded RB Rooms in 2022: Buffalo Bills

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The NFL draft has come and gone. We are finally starting to get a clear picture of what the NFL team’s depth charts will look like for this upcoming season. As a dynasty manager, you should be starting to realize just how muddled the running back position has become. Outside of Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, and DAndre Swift, the dynasty running back landscape is tough to distinguish between, and even Harris and Swift have question marks. There is no clear consensus for the position, and with a vaunted 2023 class coming next year, it makes it even harder to identify running backs that you want to acquire for your dynasty rosters. However, the 2023 class isn’t here yet, and we need to win leagues this year. With that in mind, in this series of articles, we will be looking at five crowded running back rooms and just how you should be attacking each this season. Next up is the Buffalo Bills.

Offensive Scheme

Since 2018, the Buffalo Bills will have a new man running their offense. This offseason, former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll was hired as the Giant’s new head coach. Under Daboll, the Bills reached new heights as an offense. After a lackluster 2018 season with a rookie quarterback Josh Allen the Bills offense improved considerably. In 2019, the Bills' offense scored 314 points and ranked third. The following year, it all came together for Daboll’s scheme, and in 2020, the Bills offense put up 501 points, good for second in the league, and, in 2021, they scored 483, putting them in third overall. With Daboll leaving, there are more questions than answers regarding Bill’s offensive scheme moving forward.

The Bills chose to promote quarterbacks coach Ken Dorsey to offensive coordinator. Dorsey has been the team’s quarterbacks coach since 2019 and their passing game coordinator in 2021. While that serves the passing game well, the key question is how the rushing offense will look under Dorsey. Under Daboll, there were subtle hints that McDermott wasn't happy with the lack of balance within the offense and wanted them to establish a more balanced attack on the ground. That balanced attack is something that we did see more of in the last four games of the season:

• Week 15: 27 rushes, 119 yards, 1 TD
  Top Fantasy Performer: Devin Singletary RB7, 16.6 FPTs

• Week 16: 28 rushes, 114, yards, 1 TD
  Top Fantasy Performer: Devin Singletary RB10, 18.8 FPTs

• Week 17: 44 rushes, 233, yards, 4 TDs
  Top Fantasy Performer: Devin Singletary RB5, 23.0 FPTs

• Week 18: 33 rushes, 170 yards, 1 TD
  Top Fantasy Performer: Devin Singletary RB3, 25.2 FPTs

The more volume the Bills gave their running backs, the better they finished each week in fantasy. Devin Singletary was an RB1 the last four weeks of the regular season, with top ten finishes each week. While that is a small sample size, it is telling that McDermott was vocal about a more balanced attack before Week 15, then the Bills’ implemented it. With Ken Dorsey being on the staff, it’s easy to assume that the trend will continue in 2022. The Bills’ have selected a day two running back in three of the last four seasons, showing their willingness to use draft capital to find a true RB1. The want is there; the question is will Ken Dorsey’s offensive scheme enable the Bills’ to have a fantasy relevant running back?

Offensive Line

Before diving into the depth chart, we have to look at the Bills offensive line. Brian Daboll took offensive line coach Bobby Johnson with him to the New York Giants. Ken Dorsey immediately hired Aaron Kromer as their new offensive line coach. Kromer spent last season out of football but was the Los Angeles Rams run game coordinator and offensive line coach for the four years before that. From 2015 to 2016, he was the Bills offensive line coach. The hiring seems to point all directions toward emphasizing the run game. In his two seasons with the Bills, the team led the NFL in rushing yards. From 2017 to 2020, as the Los Angeles Rams offensive line coach/run game coordinator, the team ranked in the Top 10 for rushing in three of those four seasons.

The Bills also added left guard Rodger Saffold who is coming off a Pro Bowl season in 2021. Adding Saffold to left tackle Dion Dawkins who also earned a Pro Bowl trip, gives them one of the best-left sides in the NFL. The Bills also return veteran center Mitch Morse and brought back right guard Ryan Bates, who can play all five positions, and right tackle Spencer Brown. That all bodes well for the rushing attack. The Bills should have a top fifteen offensive line in 2022 and could find themselves in the top ten.

Josh Allen Effect

Josh Allen’s rushing ability always needs to be considered when looking at the fantasy reliability of the Bills backfield. Last season, the Bills rushing offense finished with 2,209 yards and 20 touchdowns on 461 attempts for an average of 4.8 yards per carry. However, Josh Allen (122 carries, 763 yards, six touchdowns) inflated those statistics. He also had seven rushing attempts inside the five-yard line tying Devin Singletary for the team lead. He saw seventeen carries within the ten-yard line showing that his rushing upside will also be a detriment to the fantasy ceiling of Bills running backs unless they are home-run threats, something that neither Devin Singletary nor Zack Moss has shown to be throughout their respective careers. Josh Allen has not had less than 102 carries in the last three seasons, and it doesn't look like that trend will end anytime soon.

Devin Singletary

• Contract Status: 1 year, $2,540,000 contract
• Dynasty ADP: 12th Round RB37

Over the course of three seasons, Devin Singletary has been a frustrating fantasy asset to have on your roster. In 2019, the Bills selected Singletary in the third round, and he looked poised to be the lead back in that backfield. At Florida Atlantic, Singletary rushed for over 4,000 yards in his career and sixty-six touchdowns. There was hope that those numbers would translate well to the NFL, but in three seasons, he has finished as RB32, RB31, and RB24.

Devin Singletary looked to be a dead dynasty asset up until Week 13 last season. Until then, he averaged 8.8 fantasy points per game and was not startable in fantasy leagues. After Week 13, however, Singletary was a league winner. He finished as the RB3 in PPR scoring over the season's last six weeks. He averaged 17 fantasy points per game and looked like he was finally living up to his draft expectations. The question for 2022 is which Singletary will show up to start the season? The league winner or the unplayable fantasy asset. The answer probably lies somewhere in between. Singletary will most likely be the day one starter and will hold back-end RB2 status early in the season, but with the addition of Georgia running back James Cook in that backfield, his long-term outlook is unknown. It seems likely the Bills will move on from Singletary after this season, and there is no guarantee that he’ll be the RB1 on any other NFL roster, especially with the 2023 class of running backs entering the draft. If you have him, you should look to ride him out early in the season and then ship him for other assets if you are not a contender.

Dynasty Meter: Hold/Sell

James Cook

• Contract Status: 4 years, $5,832,057
• Dynasty ADP: 8th Round RB23
• Rookie ADP: 1st Round

James Cook has immediate value as a PPR option in fantasy this season. He will likely get most of the third-down work out of the backfield, and his big-play potential could fill the scoreboard in fantasy leagues. The Bills selected Cook in the second round of the NFL draft, and you can't ignore that draft capital. Cook became the highest-drafted Bills running back since they selected C.J. Spiller in Round 1 in the 2010 NFL draft. Teams don't use that type of draft capital without a plan. Cook tested well at the combine, recording a 4.42 40-yard-dash, and he had a 33-inch vertical. While he never produced huge numbers at Georgia, he did show that he could be a complete back last season, rushing for 728 yards and catching 27 balls for 284 yards. The Bills will utilize Cook in the passing game, and we could see him in a hybrid role in that offense. We’ve already seen the beat reporters in Buffalo talk about how the team views Cook as not only a running back but also a receiver. The issue with Cook is his size.

List of sub-200 pound running backs drafted over the last 5 years:

James Cook
Kyren Williams
Tyler Badie
Demetric Felton
Jason Huntley
Raymond Calais
Justice Hill
Darwin Thompson
Kerrith Whyte Jr.
Myles Gaskin
Nyheim Hines
Boston Scott
Trenton Cannon
Justin Jackson

— Christian Williams (@CWilliamsNFL) June 5, 2022

You can see from that tweet above James Cook has an uphill battle as a prospect considering his size. But given the draft capital and how the Bills plan to use him, he still has high-end RB3 upside, and if he can earn targets within this passing offense, he could be a relevant fantasy option in Dynasty. Much more relevant than Devin Singletary and Zack Moss moving forward. He is the best long-term option in that backfield with the safest ADP among running backs in that range. If the Bills do decide to move on from Devin Singletary, then your investment into James Cook will pay off and he becomes a much better asset in 2023.

Dynasty Meter: Long-Term Dynasty Buy

Duke Johnson Jr

• Contract Status: 1 year, $1,120,000
• Dynasty ADP: 31st Round RB115

The Bills brought back Duke Johnson Jr after losing out on J.D. McKissic in free agency. With the Miami Dolphins last season, Johnson had two 100-yard games at the end of the season, and the 28-year-old will provide his new team with valuable veteran depth. Johnson does have the pass-catching ability and could be the team’s best receiving option if Cook was to get hurt, which would make him a fantasy add in PPR leagues. He holds very little dynasty value outside of that. He will be competing with Zack Moss for the RB3 role in the offense.

Dynasty Meter: Hold/Sell

Zack Moss

• Contract Status: 2 years, $2,118,000
• Dynasty ADP: 23rd Round RB81

The Bills drafting James Cook tells you everything you need to know about Zack Moss. Moss was a healthy scratch in multiple games last season and last saw over ten carries in a game in Week 4. Moss was given the opportunity early on but failed to capitalize and finished the season with just 345 yards and two touchdowns. Moss will be competing with Duke Johnson Jr for the RB3 in the offense and, in my opinion, could be a cut candidate. If you have Moss in Dynasty, you have to hope he can get an opportunity elsewhere to help his value.

Dynasty Meter: Hold

Raheem Blackshear

• Contract Status: 3 years, $2,575,000
• Dynasty ADP: Not Drafted
• Rookie ADP: Not Drafted

The 5-foot-9, 200-pound Blackshear signed with the Buffalo Bills as an undrafted free agent after the NFL draft. Blackshear averaged 4.7 yards on 410 carries and added 123 receptions for 1,213 yards in 50 games over five seasons in college. He also averaged 19.3 yards on 37 punt returns. He ran for 14 touchdowns and caught seven touchdown passes. Blackshear is the prototypical Bills player. The Bills love versatility, and he has it. His special teams upside could also allow him to make the 53-man roster come the fall, but he could make his way onto at least the practice squad. Blackshear is an excellent taxi squad stash in deep dynasty leagues.

Dynasty Meter: Deep Dynasty Stash

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