3 QBs to Avoid at ADP

Photo: Isaiah J. Downing, USA Today Sports

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Every time you hear, "You need to have insert-player-here in this year," there are also players you must avoid. Some players are just not as good as everyone makes them out to be. Maybe they had a stellar end to the 2021 season and are being overrated by the consensus without considering that their circumstances have changed. But most players that you need to avoid in fantasy football are being drafted at an ADP (Average Draft Position) that is too high, typically due to a disparity between their NFL game value and their fantasy football value.

Let's bridge the gap and dive into three quarterbacks who are overvalued from an ADP standpoint.

Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City Chiefs: ADP of QB2

Nobody would ever think that Mahomes, probably the most talented quarterback in the NFL, is overpriced. A year ago, he probably wasn't. But a year ago, he had Tyreek Hill still. While he still has Travis Kelce, the loss of Hill to the Miami Dolphins is pretty big on paper. Since 2016, the duo of Mahomes and Hill ranks second in the NFL in combined passing touchdowns with 41. Remember that Mahomes wasn't the starter until 2018 -- two years later! Another thing to be concerned about is Mahomes only ranked as the QB5 in fantasy points per game at the position in 2021, 3.7 FPPG lower than his 2020 number. He also had 16 interceptions last season, the most in his career.

The new receiving corps is a major question here. The new faces in town include JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore, while Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson have also gone to new teams via free agency. Starting with Smith-Schuster, who has recently struggled to stay healthy, missing multiple games in 2021 and 2019. He has also not been very productive on the field, with his last 100-yard performance coming in Week 8 of the 2019 season. The last time we saw him facing off against the CB1 every week was after Antonio Brown left Pittsburgh in that 2019 season, and he just was not the same player that broke out for over 1,400 yards the season prior. Valdes-Scantling is the burner for this offense. He has ranked inside the Top 5 in the last two seasons in yards per reception but has curiously ranked outside of the Top 40 in target separation. Mahomes' arm talent is just as good as Aaron Rodgers' is, so Valdes-Scantling shouldn't see a drop-off in quality of targets. But the fact remains that Valdes-Scantling was never able to be more than a situational receiver in Green Bay, so how will he stand out in Kansas City? Lastly, Moore is the new rookie in town, drafted in the back half of the second round this year. He is a solid talent that should operate out of the slot to start the year but had very good numbers versus press and man coverage, per Reception Perception. He is only 5-foot-10, but with his history playing the X-role at Western Michigan, he could be moved around the formation as Mahomes gets familiar with his skill set.

There are plenty of good things about this offense, including that Kelce is still around and performing at elite levels. But without Hill to terrify defenses, Mahomes could see a downtick in his efficiency and overall numbers as he gets used to the new faces in the offense this season. There are better options at QB2.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: ADP of QB8

Prescott is an interesting case study here. On one hand, he is another offseason removed from the broken ankle that he suffered in the middle of the 2020 season and theoretically should feel comfortable running more on it, given what we have learned from recent past cases such as Carson Wentz. On the other hand, Prescott's supporting cast has a bunch of new faces, and it is fair to think that they can not give him all the support he has had the past few seasons. Franchise linchpins such as Amari Cooper and La'el Collins are gone, the once-terrifying offensive line is a shell of its former self given Tyron Smith's consistent injury history, and outside of CeeDee Lamb, there is no alpha pass-catcher. Dalton Schultz is still in town and Jalen Tolbert was drafted on Day 2 of this year's NFL Draft, but Prescott will have to put much more of the load on his shoulders this year. Also, the defense gave him a ton of help last year. That usually isn't consistent on a year-to-year basis.

The crux of the argument when attempting to evaluate Prescott is this. Last season, he threw the most passing attempts, most touchdowns, second-most passing yards, and most completions of his career. It was only good for a QB9 finish for fantasy and 11th on a points-per-game basis. How can we justify him being drafted as a top-eight option this season when he has lost all this talent around him, and the only real plus argument is that he will run more? There are a few quarterbacks that you should draft around this spot instead that are going after Prescott, including players like Joe Burrow (QB9).