This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup
WR Gabe Davis (BUF vs MIN) vs Cameron Dantzler
Despite the 7-1 record, the Minnesota secondary has been one of the worst in the league. They are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points but are also allowing 9.4 yards per target which is the highest in the league. Dantzler was injured last week, and rookie Akayleb Evans stepped in. This should bump both Davis and Stefon Diggs on the outside. Diggs will likely see a healthy dose of Patrick Peterson, who has been one of the lone bright spots for this secondary. We cannot discount the revenge game narrative for Diggs after how his time in Minnesota ended, but Davis has the better matchup and should be targeted early and often by Josh Allen.
WR Courtland Sutton (DEN vs TEN) vs Terrance Mitchell
The Denver offense has not clicked so far this season, and Sutton has seen his numbers dip significantly due to the play of Russell Wilson. However, they are walking into a matchup against a Tennessee secondary that is allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and the sixth-most to those lined up on the outside. Mitchell has not played well this season and currently allows 0.40 fantasy points per coverage snap. Sutton has the best-projected matchup of any Denver receiver this week against a secondary known for giving up points.
WR Christian Kirk (JAX vs KC) vs LJarius Sneed
The Kansas City secondary may have held the Titans receivers without a catch last week, but that will not be the case against Jacksonville this week. Kirk has played well this season and seems to be a favorite target of Trevor Lawrence, and the offense is currently flowing through Travis Etienne. The Chiefs are allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to the slot position, where Kirk lines up over 76% of the time. Look for Lawrence to try to exploit this matchup in what may be a surprisingly high-scoring game this week.
WR Tyler Lockett (SEA vs TB) vs Carlton Davis
The Tampa Bay secondary has been solid this season but will face one of its tougher tests when DK Metcalf and Lockett come to town. Davis has been the weakest link in the secondary, allowing 0.44 fantasy points per coverage snap. While Jamel Dean and Davis have been asked to shadow in the past, they have primarily played their own sides so far this season with 95%+ snaps on the outside and the rest in the slot on their same side. Both players should see a mix of Metcalf and Lockett this week, with Davis projected to see more of Lockett. The slight advantage goes to Seattle on that side and has Lockett poised for a solid performance this week.
WR Diontae Johnson (PIT vs NO) vs Paulson Adebo
It has been a tough season for Pittsburgh so far, especially the offense. After trading Chase Claypool to the Bears, there will be excess targets to be absorbed through George Pickens and Johnson. New Orleans is a tough defense, but they have been without the services of Marshon Lattimore since an injury in London against the Vikings. That leaves Adebo on the outside, and he has struggled mightily. He is currently allowing 0.68 fantasy points per coverage snap and will have to contend with two big-bodied receivers this week in Johnson and Pickens. The quarterback situation will limit the ceiling for Johnson, but the great matchup makes him worthy of flex or sleeper in daily fantasy consideration.
WR D.J. Moore (CAR vs ATL) vs Cornell Armstrong
While the quarterback situation in Carolina is murkier than ever, with Sam Darnold recently brought back from injury, they are expected to stick with P.J. Walker. This is good news for Moore, who has seen his targets, yards, and touchdowns grow with Walker under center. He was always the best receiving option on the team and never clicked with Baker Mayfield. This week he has a great matchup against a young corner that is allowing 0.70 fantasy points per coverage snap. Look for Walker to try to make a statement this week to keep his job, and his best weapon is Moore in a great matchup on the outside.
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