Sunday Showdown Week 17

Photo: Philip G. Pavely, USA Today Sports

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OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to Baltimore to take on the Ravens as 1.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 35. Lamar Jackson is set to miss at least one more game, which has resulted in one of the lowest game totals of the season. Over the last three games, Baltimore is last in the league in pass rate. Pittsburgh doesn’t pass much more often, as they’re bottom ten as well. Each team will be expected to lean heavily on their run game while looking to be efficient on low passing volume. The Ravens are trotting out the league’s worst receiving corps, by a wide margin, which makes all of their tight ends viable, especially if Nick Boyle misses due to illness. Both quarterbacks are still in captain consideration given how little they have to do in low-scoring games to make the optimal lineup.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Lamar Jackson – Knee–Out

Nick Boyle – Illness – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Najee Harris
2. Dionte Johnson
3. Tyler Huntley
4. Kenny Pickett
5. Mark Andrews

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Kenny Pickett $9,200 – Captain or Flex

Pickett was inactive in the matchup against the Ravens two weeks ago. Mitchell Trubisky passed 30 times under similar circumstances. Pickett is averaging just over 33 pass attempts per game. Typically, we’re stacking the passing game of the team favored to win, but the Steelers have far more viable receiving options and are likely to pass more often than the Ravens. Pickett has no multi-touchdown games on the season which would typically keep him out of Captain consideration, but with such a low total he only needs one in addition to some rushing production.