Photo: USA Today Sports

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Chicago Bears are heading to Green Bay to take on the Packers as 10-point underdogs. The game total is set to 42. By today’s standards, 42 is low, but for this game, it may be generous. Aaron Rodgers struggled to connect with any of his pass-catching options, both new and old. The only bright spot for the Packers was A.J. Dillon, but fortunately, the opportunity was there for Aaron Jones to also thrive. On the Bears' side of the ball, we learned nothing in Week 1 as their first game was played in what looked to be a monsoon at times. Fields completed only eight passes, with two of them going for touchdowns. David Montgomery handled more than 66% of the backfield but gave way to Khalil Herbert in key situations. With hardly any options to feel good about, this game is going to focus even more than normal on projected roster percentage and unique salary allocation.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Velus Jones – Hamstring – Doubtful
• Allen Lazard – Ankle – Game time decision

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Aaron Jones
2. A.J. Dillon
3. Justin Fields
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. David Montgomery

PACKERS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Aaron Rodgers $10,600 – Captain or Flex

Yet another season Aaron Rodgers would like everyone to “relax” after a Week 1 letdown. The tune has changed a touch this year as even Rodgers seems to have no idea who he can trust to catch passes. The Packers had two rookie receivers play over 50% of the snaps in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Doubs caught four passes while Watson caught two. Both failed to reach 40 yards, and Watson outright dropped what would’ve been a 50-yard touchdown. Rodgers remains in consideration due to the lack of viable options on this slate but pairing him is going to be the challenging part.