NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to Miami to take on the Dolphins as 7.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 45.5. The Dolphins have fallen off dramatically since losing Tua Tagovailoa to various injuries. I’m choosing to approach this game similarly to their first three games in hopes that Tagovailoa picks up right where he left off. The Steelers are getting Kenny Pickett back after a one-game absence though it has not mattered much. In Pickett’s first start he did pass 52 times, but it was in a blowout against the best offense in the NFL (Buffalo Bills). If we expect the Dolphins to rack up the points, then Pickett can be expected to pass more. I doubt the field learned its lesson with Andy Dalton on Thursday night, so Pickett will be rostered less than he should be. Heavily stacking the Steelers I a stretch but we can get unique by pairing Pickett with one of his pass-catchers.
Jaylen Waddle – Shoulder – Questionable
Durham Smythe – Hamstring – Questionable
Kenny Pickett $9,200 – Flex
Kenny Pickett has played only one full game, and it was a blowout loss to the Bills in which he passed 52 times. The bad news is that we only have a one-game sample size, but the good news is that we’ve got a similar game environment to his first start. Pickett will likely pass an egregious amount while remaining largely inefficient. He projects eerily similar to Andy Dalton on Thursday night where Dalton was far less rostered than any Quarterback should be. I’d like to think we all learned from our mistakes, but that’s doubtful. Pickett will still be underutilized in a game where he will be forced to pass, and he’s got rushing upside to make us feel a bit better.
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