OVERVIEW
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
GAME THEORY
The Tennessee Titans are heading to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs as 10.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 46.5. The three things in life we can count on are death, taxes, and frustrating Chiefs Showdown pricing. At running back, we have a three-headed committee with the real lead back (Jerick McKinnon) priced at just $3,000, the fake lead back (Isiah Pacheco) priced just above punt territory, and the third option who is actually the top fantasy producer (Clyde Edwards-Helaire) priced all the way up at $7,000. Wide receiver isn’t much better with Kadarius Toney making his Chiefs debut at a whopping $6,800 while Marquez Valdes-Scantling finds himself at just $5,400 which is even cheaper than Mecole Hardman. The Tennessee offense is easily projectable, especially if Ryan Tannehill plays. Nailing down the best plays on the Kansas City offense is going to be the key to this slate.
INJURY ROUND-UP
Ryan Tannehill – Ankle – Questionable
Jody Fortson – Quad – Out
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
TENNESSEE OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Ryan Tannehill $9,800 – Flex
Davis Mills was so close to being the king we needed on Thursday night. Nonetheless, we’ve got another underdog quarterback sitting at less than $10,000 with an extremely projectable target distribution. Tannehill will be an excellent pairing option with one receiver and no Derrick Henry in a Chiefs heavy stack if he’s able to go.
If Tannehill is unable to play, Malik Willis is getting another starting nod. He was disappointing, to say the least on a main slate in which he found himself carrying a high roster percentage. Some may sour due to his frustrating first performance but I’m guessing the field will be going right back to the well given his rushing upside. His salary is a bit rich given his floor, but he provides nice leverage over a highly rostered Henry.
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