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NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest owned player.
GAME THEORY
The Los Angeles Chargers are heading to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs as 3.5-point underdogs. The game total is set at 54.5, with room to climb before kickoff. These are the games we live for as Showdown connoisseurs. With both teams having a realistic shot at 50-point team totals, there is volatility in how they get there. For tournaments, throw median projections out the window and focus more on projected roster percentage. The field will dictate our direction, as margins for success will be razor-thin. If by Thursday night it feels like the world has the warm-and-fuzzies for Chiefs stacks, then it will be a great slate for Chargers onslaughts and vice versa.
INJURY ROUND-UP
- Keenan Allen – Hamstring – Not likely to play
- Donald Parham – Hamstring – Not likely to play
- Justin Watson – Chest – Likely to play
- JuJu Smith-Schuster – Shoulder – Likely to play
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
CHARGERS OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Justin Herbert $11,200 – Captain or Flex
There are not many data points to separate Justin Herbert from Patrick Mahomes II. The only real difference is that Mahomes is home and Herbert is not. Giving a slight lean in roster percentage to the Chiefs means that the Chargers will give us better leverage. The Chargers also have better value options as they will be without Keenan Allen and Donald Parham. Fading either of these teams is terrifying. But we can at least justify stacking the Chargers as it allows us to cram in more quality mid-range options. Herbert’s willingness to spread the ball around paired with a high team total is what we love in Showdown.
RUNNING BACK
Austin Ekeler $10,200 – Captain or Flex
Austin Ekeler got off to a slow start in Week 1 after spending all offseason promising fantasy managers he was worth the top overall pick. The main concern with Ekeler was his usage, as he logged less than a 50% snap share. His targets were also down as he recorded only four receptions. On a positive note, the rest of the running back snaps were split evenly between Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel, neither of whom made good on their opportunities. Ekeler should see more work this week as the Chargers battle to keep pace with the Chiefs. Ekeler can rival the ceiling of Herbert and Mahomes but is less expensive and carries a lower roster percentage.
RECEIVER
Mike Williams $9,000 - Captain or Flex
Mike Williams is too expensive relative to his Week 1 production but too cheap compared to his seasonal projection. He was targeted only four times with a 93% snap share. Allen is expected to be out with a hamstring injury, so Williams will function as Herbert’s top target. He projects similarly to JuJu Smith-Schuster and is $1,000 more expensive, so his roster percentage should be reasonable even with his role increase. He fits well in Chargers stacks, especially in lineups excluding Ekeler.
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