Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
OVERVIEW
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
GAME THEORY
The Washington Commanders are heading to Chicago to take on the Bears as 1-point underdogs. The game total is set at 38, which is likely not low enough. The Bears are averaging 17.6 pass attempts per game, which is 7 attempts less than the next-worst team. They’re rushing at the league’s 5th highest rate. Washington ranks third in pass attempts, and they should have predictable target distribution due to injuries. While it would typically be advised to pivot to the low-rostered Bears offense, it is very unlikely we get burned by the Chicago passing attack. Fields remains viable due to his rushing upside but pairing him with multiple pass-catchers is a risky proposition. The main focus should be on stacking Washington and leaving chunks of salary on the table.
INJURY ROUND-UP
- Carson Wentz – Shoulder – Limited
- Logan Thomas – Calf – DNP
- Dyami Brown – Groin – Limited
- Jahan Dotson – Hamstring – DNP
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
WASHINGTON OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Carson Wentz $10,600 – Captain or Flex
The Carson Wentz experience has been tragic for Commanders fans, but anyone who drafted him in fantasy is thrilled. He’s reached the 300-yard-bonus with multiple touchdowns three times through five weeks. He is fifth in the league in passing yards and second in attempts. This week Wentz is set up well as a slight underdog against a run-heavy team. His team total may be low, but in low-scoring affairs, it does not take much for the quarterback to find his way into the optimal lineup. Wentz is the strongest play of the slate, however unfortunate that may be for viewers.
Continue reading this content with a HALL OF FAME subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football
only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE
