Thursday Showdown Week 9

Photo: Troy Taormina, USA Today Sports

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Philadelphia Eagles are heading to Houston to take on the Texans as 14-point favorites. The game total is set at 45. This will be a tale of two halves as the Eagles have more points in the second quarter than multiple teams have on the year, but they’re near the bottom in second-half scoring because they’re consistently nursing a lead. For those of you accustomed to pre-season DFS, this game is right in your wheelhouse. On most slates, we try to avoid chalky 3-3 lineups because although they’re the most likely outcomes, they’re also the most duplicated. With a 14-point favorite, we’re likely to see far more 4-2 or 5-1 lineups, which lets us play 3-3 builds more comfortably. Roster percentages will be diluted as the field expects the Eagles' backups to get involved. We can build strong lineups around Houston, somehow managing to cover the spread.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Nico Collins – Groin – DNP

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Jalen Hurts
2. Miles Sanders
3. A.J. Brown
4. Dameon Pierce

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts $11,800 – Captain or Flex

The 8-0 Eagles have won some nail bitters this year, but the field is going to focus on Week 7 as a clear indication of what Philadelphia will do with a sizable lead. Jalen Hurts has played 100% of the offensive snaps in every week except last week, where the backups played 18%. While the Eagles are massive favorites, it’s difficult for any team to comfortably cover 14 points early enough to rest their starters. Week 7 was the only game in which Hurts rushed less than nine times. If the Texans can push the Eagles even slightly, Hurts should hit nine rushes with nearly 30 attempts. I’m choosing to build lineups around the Texans, somehow keeping this game within 10, which makes Hurts a must-play.