Using Consensus Rankings to Your Advantage

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One of my favorite things to do after uploading my rankings to the Footballguys Consensus is to go through and look for discrepancies. A feature to the left of our rankings shows each player's high and low ranks. Players with significant gaps between their high/low means there are wildly different opinions on this player. While there could be any number of reasons to explain this gap, there is a way for you to use this simple data as an advantage heading into your fantasy draft. There is information here to help you identify sleepers or avoid potential busts.

Let me start by saying that we're not here to judge anyone's rankings. Our staff puts a lot of research into everything they do and can easily back up their stance. We do not need them to explain anything to find value. This data gives a tremendous top-down look at the range of outcomes. It gets even better when you compare that range of outcomes to a player's average draft position. This is where you'll find the value that will help you in your draft.

As of May 31st, 13 staff members have rankings available. I reviewed each position to highlight the discrepancies that caught my attention.

4 Notable Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes II (High: 1, Low: 7)
Our first player is a cautionary tale. No matter his situation, Mahomes' name commands draft capital. Despite losing his best wide receiver, Mahomes is still being drafted as the 2nd best quarterback in the 3rd Round of fantasy drafts. While most fantasy analysts would agree that no quarterback should be drafted that high, Mahomes' cloudy 2022 makes it even more dangerous. He was the 4th best quarterback last year, with Tyreek Hill still on the team. While two of our rankers still have him locked in at #1, two others have him outside of the Top 5. For the draft capital you're spending, a QB7 season would be devastating.

Tom Brady (High: 3, Low: 10), Dak Prescott (High: 4, Low: 13), Jalen Hurts (High: 4, Low: 14)
We will lump this entire group together because their situations, for our purposes, are very similar. Their draft ranking is closer to their floor than their ceiling. When you wait until the mid or late rounds to take your quarterback, your focus is on the upside. These players have rankers who believe they can be a top-5 fantasy option this season without a top-5 ADP. They also carry low risk, as quarterbacks in this range score similarly, so the possible floor outside the Top 10 isn't all that bad. Pay special attention to Tom Brady. He was the No. 3 quarterback last season, and multiple people have him inside their Top 5 again. However, his draft cost is outside of the Top 10. You are getting him at his floor, and you want that value.

3 Notable Running Backs

Leonard Fournette (High: 3, Low: 16)
Like his teammate Tom Brady, Fournette is being drafted at his floor and presents massive upside. With a current ADP of RB12, there is almost no risk and three rankers have him as a top-5 fantasy back. Last year, the 27-year-old running back had his best season since his rookie year, with over 1200 total yards and ten touchdowns. But, by far, the best part of his game for fantasy purposes was his usage in the passing game. Reeling in 69 catches on 84 targets was the type of volume that makes a good back great for fantasy. The team let Ronald Jones II walk, and they are unlikely to entrust a considerable role to rookie Rachaad White. While Fournette will lose occasional snaps to White, Giovani Bernard, and KeShawn Vaughn, it is not likely to be enough to knock him out of the fantasy Top 10.

Antonio Gibson (High: 10, Low: 27)
Gibson was a top-10 running back last season and didn't do anything particularly unrepeatable. His ADP puts him at RB16, but a perceived floor would drop him out of the Top 25. The concern around Gibson stems from two transactions: The return of J.D. McKissic and the drafting of Brian Robinson. McKissic has been a thorn in the side of Gibson's fantasy value. Since 2020, McKissic was targeted 163 times, siphoning work that could have gone to Gibson. Then, the Commanders drafted Robinson in the 3rd Round of the 2022 draft. The coaches have already said they expect to play Gibson and Robinson together and that Gibson's workload will vary weekly. With draft capital as a top-15 running back and a floor outside of the Top 25, Gibson looks like a very risky second-round fantasy pick.