Wild Card Weekend Games
- Saturday Slate:
- Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans - Over/Under 44.5 - Spread Browns -2.5
- Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 44 - Spread Chiefs -3.5
- Sunday Slate:
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 35.5 - Spread Bills -10
- Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys - Over/Under 50.5 - Spread Cowboys -7.5
- Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions - Over/Under 51.5 - Spread Lions -3.5
- Monday Slate:
- Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over/Under 44 - Spread Eagles -2.5
Browns at Texans
- Browns:
- Offensive Rankings in Joe Flacco starts
- EPA/Play: 16th
- Dropback EPA: 19th
- Rush EPA: 18th
- Points per game: 28.6 (Would rank 3rd over full season)
- Yards per game: 387.8 (Would rank 4th over full season)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 1st
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 1st
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 22nd
- Points per game allowed: 21.3 (19th most)
- Yards per game allowed: 270.2 (32nd most)
- Point Differential Ranking: +34 (9th)
- Offensive Rankings in Joe Flacco starts
- Texans:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 15th
- Dropback EPA: 15th
- Rush EPA: 23rd
- Points per game: 22.2 (13th)
- Yards per game: 342.4 (12th)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 15th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 23rd
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 5th
- Points per game allowed: 20.8 (22nd most)
- Yards per game allowed: 330.7 (19th most)
- Point Differential Ranking: +24 (12th)
- Offensive Rankings
Browns
NFL Playoffs are by far my favorite time to play DFS because we can dive deep into the matchups and the identities of each team. And having conviction not only on specific plays but on how entire games will play out is an absolute requirement. The first game of the weekend is a tough one in terms of having conviction on who is going to win. The Texans are at home but the Browns have one of the best, if not the best, defenses in the NFL. Despite the brilliance of rookie C.J. Stroud, the lean here is Cleveland moving on to the Divisional Round partly because of their defense and their surging offense with Joe Flacco ($6,100) at the helm. The most shocking statistic above is the Browns' offensive rankings in points per game and yards per game under Flacco. Even more mind-boggling, Flacco ranks first in the NFL in both passing yards per game (323.2) and pass touchdowns per game (2.6) this season. Despite this, Flacco is the 10th-most expensive quarterback on the entire Saturday-Monday slate. He's a strong quarterback option with a relatively favorable matchup on tap.
Correlating with Flacco are Amari Cooper ($6,800) and David Njoku ($5,600). Both have had spike weeks with Flacco. Throughout the entire season, Cooper ranks 15th in targets per game (8.5) and Njoku ranks 25th in targets per game (7.7). That's a super impressive number for Njoku considering he's a tight end. In fact, at the tight end position, Njoku finished the regular season ranked third in targets (120), fifth in receptions (81), and sixth in receiving yards (882). Both are in play as one-offs or on Flacco stacks but Njoku is the preference in a good matchup against a Texans defense that allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game (11.5) to the tight end position this season.
The Texans defense is strong against the run and Jerome Ford ($5,500) and Kareem Hunt ($4,700) are in somewhat of a timeshare. Neither are priority plays.
Texans
C.J. Stroud ($6,800) has been a rookie revelation. He ranks fourth in passing yards per game (274.6) and 13th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5). There is some tournament appeal here as Stroud is the home quarterback in a game with a 44.5-point total that has more of a shot to shootout than the field realizes. Plus, Browns safety Grant Delpit is out and cornerback Denzel Ward is questionable. Nico Collins ($7,000) pairs nicely with Stroud and is in play either way as the clear-cut WR1 with Tank Dell long gone and out for the year. A big play machine, Collins ranked 13th in receiving yards per game (78.7) in weeks 1-17 and then dropped a whopping 9-195-1 line on the Colts in Week 18. Noah Brown ($5,100), if he plays, makes sense as a large-field tournament punt play option as he's shown the ability to post spike weeks this season paired with Stroud. And although it's not a favorable matchup for him, Dalton Schultz ($4,400) is in play as a tournament-tight end who could find the end zone.
A shocking and important development occurred in Week 18 when Houston was fighting for their playoff lives. Dameon Pierce ($4,500) did not see the field at all. Instead, Devin Singletary ($5,700) played on 88% of the offensive snaps and handled 25 opportunities and touches. Singletary is a strong tournament leverage play, especially in Saturday-only contests. Many will want to avoid Cleveland's defense but their unit has struggled against the run as of late.
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