Expert SuperFlex Rookie Mock Draft

Photo: Brett Davis, USA Today Sports

I was asked to wrangle up some friends of Footballguys to do a dynasty rookie mock draft. I was so excited to run with this idea that I reached out to some buddies, and they were all on board. I scheduled the draft for a Friday morning, and here are the results.

Pre-Combine Mock

I sat down that Saturday afternoon to do my player write-ups and realized I had made a grave mistake. The Combine was on. Kayshon Boutte had just finished his workout, testing terribly and showing a blatant lack of effort on the turf. I was supposed to defend my stance of drafting Boutte at 2.01, and I simply could not.

I was so excited to draft with my friends that I didn’t even realize the Combine was smack dab in the middle of us drafting and me publishing this article.

I sheepishly reached out to the experts who helped me and said we needed to draft again. Luckily, they all understood and agreed (and probably laughed at me behind closed doors).

As much as I’d like to say that I planned this, the reality is that I had a lapse in scheduling. But then I figured I could spin this into a positive and make some fun content!

We often say that the Combine is just a small piece of the puzzle. But Anthony Richardson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Darnell Washington improved their Draft stock with their workouts. And for worse, Jordan Addison and Kayshon Boutte impacted theirs.

So I stumbled upon a fun opportunity to write a unique article. The same experts in the same draft order picking just two days apart, with the Combine as the only external factor. This gives us a good visualization of how much weight we should put into Combine performances and at which positions it matters most.

Here are the results from Sunday’s mock.

Post-Combine Mock

Players who moved up

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1.07 to 1.04)
• Anthony Richardson (1.06 to 1.05)
• Zay Flowers (1.11 to 1.07)
• Josh Downs (1.12 to 1.11)
• Devon Achane (2.08 to 2.01)
• Darnell Washington (undrafted to 2.05)
• Roschon Johnson (2.10 to 2.07)
• Zach Evans (2.11 to 2.08)

Players who moved down

• Jordan Addison (1.04 to 1.08)
• Jahmyr Gibbs (1.05 to 1.06)
• Will Levis (1.08 to 1.12)
• Kayshon Boutte (2.01 to 2.04)
• Sean Tucker (2.04 to undrafted)
• Dalton Kincaid (2.05 to 2.06)
• Tyjae Spears (2.06 to 2.10)
• Tank Bigsby (2.07 to 2.11)

This isn’t a perfect reflection of how the consensus will adjust for the Combine. Different analysts have different preferences. And while Sean Tucker plummeted out of this mock, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be a third-round pick in all rookie drafts. Nick passed on him at 2.04 for a sliding Boutte, and every analyst after him simply preferred other prospects. But this is a good demonstration of how every draft board differs, and players can be drafted where you least expect them.

Participants were asked for a quick write-up on their picks from the latter mock. Let’s dive in!

Dynasty SuperFlex, PPR, no premiums at any positions

1.01 - Bijan Robinson (drafted by DaveKluge)

I don’t have to defend this selection too aggressively. Bijan Robinson is the consensus and near-unanimous 1.01 in all dynasty formats. His production, size, film, and projected draft capital will make him close to a can’t-miss prospect. He’s got the build for a three-down role, is a powerful and decisive runner, and displays surprisingly soft hands in the passing game. He looked fantastic at his Combine workout and locked in his role as the class’s RB1. Unless a clear QB1 emerges, Robinson probably sticks where he is atop rookie drafts. Now, if Anthony Richardson goes No. 1 overall to a favorable landing spot, we might have to revisit this. But for now, Robinson’s a phenomenal prospect and deserves all the hype he’s getting.

1.02 - Bryce Young (drafted by LucasWencl)

I’m so ready for Anthony Richardson to make me look like an idiot with this pick, but I’m sticking with who I believe is the best quarterback prospect in this class: Bryce Young. Concern around his frame is understandable. However, Kyler Murray also came into the league at 5-foot-10 and was only three pounds heavier than Bryce Young. Young is well-polished in almost all facets of his game. He can deliver the ball accurately at all three levels, has tremendous pocket presence, and possesses play-extending mobility he can rely on. Because of that, I believe he has more upside than C.J. Stroud and is a more secure asset than Anthony Richardson in fantasy football.

1.03 - C.J. Stroud (drafted by SC_FFB)

Quarterbacks come at a premium in Superflex leagues, and the cheapest way to acquire them is in the draft. Although you are not required to start two quarterbacks, it is usually the preferred route, given quarterbacks typically outscore skill players most weeks. Like other positions, you want to have depth at quarterback to account for injuries and bye weeks. The only problem is there are only 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL, creating a discrepancy between supply and demand. At 1.03, there was only one quarterback off the board (Bryce Young), ultimately making the decision for me. With the third overall pick, I decided to make a hometown selection with Ohio State’s own C.J. Stroud. For much of the draft season, there had been consensus Top 2 at quarterback. However, after the combine, Anthony Richardson joined the conversation and made an even stronger case for himself. Stroud gets the nod over Richardson for me as the more established player and a greater body of work. After backing up Justin Fields as a redshirt freshman, Stroud has been nothing short of spectacular as the starter leading the Buckeyes to a 21-4 record (84%-win percentage) from 2021-2022. In his last two seasons, Stroud threw for over 8,000 yards (8,123) and 85 touchdowns, compared to just 12 interceptions. He was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year twice and became the first two-time Heisman Trophy finalist in school history. One of the most appealing things about Stroud’s profile is his ability to keep his composure and perform on the big stage. After trailing by 14 in the 2021 Rose Bowl, Stroud led his team to a 48-45 victory, throwing for the most yards (573) and touchdowns (6) in the game's 108-year tenure. Per PFF, his highest-graded career game was his final one, against Georgia, in the college football playoffs. Matched up against the best defense in the nation, Stroud put on a show, throwing for 348 yards and four touchdowns. He also flashed some upside as a rusher, tacking on 70 yards on the ground (excluding sacks). Although he didn’t take part in the athletic testing this weekend, Stroud put on a clinic as a passer elevating his stock. NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah stated it was one of the best throwing sessions he’s ever witnessed at the combine.

1.04 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (drafted by P2WFantasy)

At the 1.04, I was presented with what may be a tough decision following all of the Anthony Richardson Combine hype… jump on that hype or pivot to my WR1. I ended up selecting Jaxon-Smith Njigba, who, pre-Combine, I juggled with Jordan Addison as my WR1. However, I am now comfortably ranking Smith-Njigba as the WR1 of the class. His 2022 season was cut short to just three games due to injury, but it is the 2021 season that put the nation on notice. Nationally that season, Smith-Njigba ranked #3 in receiving yards (1,606), tied for #9 in receptions (95), and averaged a healthy 123.54 yards per game. At the combine, he absolutely smoked the 3-cone (6.57) and 20-yard shuttle (3.93). He projects to be a clear first-round selection and can turn into a team’s WR1 with high fantasy football implications. Smith-Njigba could end up as a top-12 dynasty wide receiver in the future. This is more of a clear impact on my fantasy football dynasty team than the shot I would be taking on Anthon Richardson or anyone else at this spot.

1.05 - Anthony Richardson (drafted by InHarmsWay19)

Baseball changed how they viewed plate appearances a few years ago, and we’ve seen a DRAMATIC uptick in the swinging-for-the-fences mentality. Fantasy football isn’t all that different, primarily how the quarterback position has dominated fantasy in today’s era of football. Richardson is the biggest "What if?" in the draft. Not much experience starting in college, but he’s the most athletic quarterback prospect since, maybe, ever. For a player that I think not only has a high floor in the NFL, for fantasy, but the highest upside in the entire draft, getting him at 1.05 is a STEAL.

1.06 - Jahmyr Gibbs (drafted by coreyspala)

The first six picks seem set in stone; I was left with Gibbs. What is not to like regarding a speedy (4.36) running back with acceleration and burst? When he gets in the open field, he is able to make defenders miss with ease. He is able to run between the tackles, but he brings a mouthwatering skill set for fantasy points with his receiving ability. Starting his career at Georgia Tech, he finished the season as his team's second-leading receiver. Finishing college at Alabama, Gibbs finished the 2022 season as their leading receiver. Oh, yeah, I forgot he is a running back too. Targets (1.59) are worth more than carries (.58) for fantasy points, per Scott Barrett. This was a PPR league and an easy decision to make.

1.07 - Zay Flowers (drafted by FantasyBluechip)

In the first go around, I had surprisingly gotten Jaxon Smith-Njigba and was thrilled because I think he’s by far the WR1. But slightly against ADP (for now), I have Zay Flowers as my WR2. Unlike Addison or Quentin Johnston, Flowers has both polish and enough athleticism to play in the slot and the outside. My initial comp was Diontae Johnson due to his elite route running and separation skills. But after listening to Daniel Jeremiah and seeing his Combine numbers, I believe he’s closer to Tyler Lockett. There’s so much fantasy upside in a player that can make big plays and has a skill set for a safe PPR floor.

1.08 - Jordan Addison (drafted by JohnBoschFF)

Drawing the 1.08 spot in the mock was an immediate disappointment. In the first mock, I felt nearly forced to take Will Levis because passing up a quarterback in the Superflex first round when there is no other quarterback of interest after him feels wrong. Drafting him felt worse. I would have been happier if I had taken Quentin Johnston, my WR3. Lesson learned. I was stoked about getting Devon Achane at the 2.08. He is my RB3, so it felt like stealing.

1.09 - Zach Charbonnet (drafted by JCJDynasty)

Zach Charbonnet has been my RB2 throughout the predraft process. While Charbonnet isn’t particularly elite in any one category, he does everything you want a running back to do well. He boasts a solid frame (6’0 214), can run in any kind of scheme, has good contact balance, and can stay on the field for all three downs. A big-ten recruit, he transferred to the Chip Kelly zone scheme at UCLA and flourished. The area he lacks is breakaway speed. He clocked a 4.53 40 with a 1.54 10-yard split, so his speed is fine. He’s a well-rounded running back that will have a long future in the NFL. With my first-round picks, I want a guy who will be a producer. I’ll take upside shots later on. Charbonnet is the kind of back NFL teams value and will feed touches to. I love his value here at 1.09.

1.10 - Quentin Johnston (drafted by FFMuzio)

Standing at 6-foot-3 and 208 pounds, Quentin Johnston is an up-and-coming wide receiver with impressive athleticism, currently ranking #3 out of 44 in the 2023 wide receiver position based on his 111.1 athleticism score at PlayerProfiler. Johnston has proven to be a vertical threat with his speed and separation and ranked 5th among the FBS in yards per catch. With his athleticism and speed, Johnston has the potential to become a dominant receiver in the NFL.

1.11 - Josh Downs (drafted by FF_Worm)

Although coming in a bit smaller than I would have liked at the combine, I was thrilled with drafting Josh Downs at the 1.11. Landing in the 97th percentile for college target share and the 87th percentile for breakout age, Downs backed up these numbers with two years of rock-solid production in college. Pair that with being an early declare and he should be a lock for day two draft capital. Downs is a route-running technician with great hands who can easily find himself as a steady WR2 in fantasy if put in the right position. Finding that at the backend of a draft is a major win.

1.12 - Will Levis (drafted by 4WhomJBellTolls)

At some point, it is just getting cute. While the aim of playing dynasty is playing scout and general manager, it is easy to go too far. There are reasons to be concerned with Will Levis. His delayed development. He's an older rookie, turning 24 before his rookie year. But the physical traits are undeniable. Every indication has him in the top half of the NFL draft. Outside of the top six, no player comes close to his upside in Superflex formats. A player who should have gone much higher; fading him to this level is ludicrous—a smash at 1.12.

2.01 - Devon Achane (drafted by DaveKluge)

Initially, I took Kayshon Boutte at 2.01, but his poor testing and apparent lack of effort at the Combine, combined with declining college production, has severely impacted his draft stock. Boutte went from a potential top-10 pick to a likely Day 3 pick in a calendar year. As Boutte fell due to his Combine performance, Devon Achance saw his stock jump. We knew Achance was a speedster, but a 4.32 40-yard dash time places him inside the 99th percentile for NFL running backs. He’s a bit small but still showcases power and balance in between the tackles. There’s certainly a risk that Achane falls in the Draft due to his size, but it’s hard to ignore his big-play upside. He was one of the risker selections at this spot in the mock draft, but a good landing spot with a creative coaching staff could play to his strengths and allow him to make an immediate impact on an NFL field.

2.02 - Michael Mayer (drafted by LucasWencl)

It’s been long touted that this 2023 RB class is deep. Here’s the problem though: After the top 3 (Robinson, Gibbs, Charbonnet), they all could be an Isaiah Spiller for fantasy. They could also be Tyler Allgeiers for a more positive outlook, but with my top 5 WRs off the board as well in this draft, I would MUCH much rather take the sure-fire prospect in Michael Mayer at the most desolate position in fantasy football. Mayer is physical, sets up defenders extremely well, and has exceptional ball skills. Projected to be a mid-to-late first-round pick in the NFL Draft, let's imagine his fantasy impact on a team like the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, or even sliding to the Cincinnati Bengals at 28. He’ll take time to develop like all young tight ends, but with comps like Jason Witten and T.J. Hockenson, Michael Mayer is destined for fantasy production.

2.03 - Jalin Hyatt (drafted by SC_FFB)

In rookie drafts, I prefer to draft for value and trade for need. As a result, when I was back on the clock in the second round, I decided to go with the best player remaining on my board, Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt. Hyatt was one of the biggest surprises of the 2022 season, becoming one of the top wide receivers in the class, seemingly out of nowhere. After failing to eclipse 300 yards or score more than two touchdowns in his first two seasons, Hyatt burst onto the scene as a junior, catching 67 passes for 1,267 yards while setting a school record with 15 touchdown receptions. He became the first Volunteer to win the Biletnikoff award, recognized as the most outstanding receiver in the nation. Heading into the weekend, Hyatt seemed like a virtual lock to go in the first round but posted mixed results at the combine. Although we have seen smaller receivers excel at the next level, Hyatt came in a bit light, weighing only 176 pounds. He ran a 4.40 40-yard dash which isn’t terrible but lower than expected for a player rumored to potentially break the record. He was much better in the other testing drills finishing fourth at his position in the vertical jump (40 inches) and first in the broad jump (135 inches). Even after a mediocre combine, I still expect Hyatt get first-round capital, which is rare to find in the second round of rookie drafts. There is concern about whether or not Hyatt’s game can translate to the NFL. However, I’m willing to take a shot on a player that dominated the SEC, even if most of his production came in a single season.

2.04 - Kayshon Boutte (drafted by P2WFantasy)

Heading into the combine, Kayshon Boutte spoke with tons of confidence about his abilities and how he felt he ranked for this class. Boutte was involved in the LSU offense straight away in his freshman year, totaling the most yards of his college career that season (735). Throughout his career, Boutte averaged 67.52 yards, 4.85 receptions, and .59 touchdowns per game. The Combine definitely could have had a negative impact on his draft stock and how fantasy managers may rank him prior to the NFL Draft. But I still have faith that due to how many regarded him throughout his college career, he will have flex value for fantasy football. The Combine did not do justice to the size/speed combo many have praised on his tape. My draft intention was to pick a potential upside flex fantasy play, rather than throw a dart at one of the tight ends or running backs that followed him in this draft.

2.05 - Darnell Washington (drafted by InHarmsWay19)

An argument can be made that having a top-tier quarterback and a top-tier tight end in fantasy can win you leagues. Washington isn’t a finished product as a receiver, but he was playing behind future top-10 pick Brock Bowers at Georgia. Washington has the athletic profile to improve in the NFL and is a mismatch at 6-foot-7 and 264 pounds. The tight end position in the fantasy is so devoid of clear-cut top guys, and I think Washington brings the ability to emerge as one sooner than people think.

2.06 - Dalton Kincaid (drafted by coreyspala)

The third tight end off the board but the TE1, in my view. I love Kincaid’s ability to bring fantasy points. Michael Mayer and Darnell Washington will benefit their NFL team more than your fantasy team. He is explosive. Kincaid is able to gain yards after the catch and make defenders miss. He is athletic, we can see this in his film. Kincaid did not test at the Combine due to a minor back fracture sustained in his final regular season game, he did play in their PAC-12 title game. As alluded to, he is not necessarily a blocker, which means he will not be on the field as much. However, I do not see why that matters if a tight end is on the field to block… they will not be getting a target then, right? It is plausible to develop in-line blocking skills. We did not get a direct answer to his athleticism from the combine. I hope we are able to find out (with a grain of salt) from his pro day (3/23). Although, I hope he does not test so he can be a value - especially being drafted after other tight ends.

2.07 - Roschon Johnson (drafted by FantasyBluechip)

This is a definite “Why not?” pick after all the tight ends I'd rather have we’re sniped (thank you, Corey Spala), and I’m rolling with a large back with good testing numbers but very little production. His production can be understandable when you consider he played behind Bijan Robinson. No other running back stood out, but Johnson has been generating buzz both at the senior bowl and at the combine. I’m willing to bet on a former quarterback with monster size, pass blocking, and little wear and tear. This isn’t an exciting pick, but without draft capital and a shallow receiver pool, I’ll take a flier on film talent and athleticism

2.08 - Zach Evans (drafted by JohnBoschFF)

Welp… Take 1 was a mock of the mock, and Take 2 took place after the combine. Achane at 2.08 was not going to happen again. Sad face. I learned my lesson in the first mock and was not going to take Will Levis at 1.08 if he was there. He was. But this time, Zay Flowers had jumped into the top seven and pushed Jordan Addison down. FANTASTIC. Happy to take my WR2 at 1.08. As the second round kicked off, Achane unsurprisingly was scooped up right away. My play for the 2.08 would be one of the slew of tight ends or running backs. The tight ends all went prior to my pick, giving me a choice between Zach Evans, Tyjae Spears, Tank Bigsby, and Kendre Miller. Currently, I have those four in that order, but all in the same tier. I took Evans, but if I were currently doing real rookie drafts, I would be sure to mix my exposure to this group. The NFL draft will likely create a more concrete order.

2.09 - Kendre Miller (drafted by JCJDynasty)

Kendre Miller comes in as my RB5 in the class. To get a top-five running back on my board at 2.09, I love the value. He didn’t test at the Combine because he was recovering from an MCL sprain he suffered during the CFP vs. Michigan. Miller still came in at 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds, the same size as Bijan Robinson. I anticipate him testing out comparatively to Bijan during his pro day as well. Miller had a phenomenal season at TCU and presents prototypical size. His analytical profile is incomplete, he only had a backfield to himself for one season. He lacks the receiving profile, but I think it’s something he’s capable of at the next level. What stands out in Miller’s game is his ability to be patient behind the line of scrimmage and allow blocks to develop. It has a certain Le’veon Bell quality. Love him at 2.09.

2.10 - Tyjae Spears (drafted by FFMuzio)

Tyjae Spears is a running back with an athleticism score of 98.3, currently ranked #10 out of 18 for his position at PlayerProfiler. In his final year at Tulane, Spears finished the 2022 season with 1837 scrimmage yards and 21 total touchdowns. He can make sharp cuts in the second level and possesses good field vision. Spears has freak athleticism and will be a solid contributor to any team in the NFL.

2.11 - Tank Bigsby (drafted by FF_Worm)

Tank Bigsby is someone I am more than willing to roll the dice on at the end of the second round. With good size and decent speed for someone with his build, Bigsby could be a useful fantasy asset. If his projected day-two draft capital can hold, he can become a player you can plug into fantasy lineups on a weekly basis. Running behind a brutal offensive line at Auburn, Bigsby still strung together three solid seasons while going up against the SEC. Adding 62 receptions in his college career, Bigsby’s upside far outweighs the cost to take him in rookie drafts.

2.12 - Marvin Mims (drafted by 4WhomJBellTolls)

Mims has a rare ability to impact the passing game at all field depths. At Oklahoma, he ranked near the top of college football with 19.5 yards per reception, repeatedly showing his big play ability. He has an elusive ability after the catch as well. He is a near-lock for the top 60 and should threaten the first round. I do not typically advocate taking receivers this late, instead preferring to load up on running backs. Still, Mims is the player who can be drafted much higher than his current valuation in the dynasty community.

Be sure to follow and support the great analysts who helped us put this mock draft together. Click the links after each pick, and you'll be taken to their Twitter pages.

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