Imagine a preseason time machine that let us peek ahead.
Right now, the Patriots have the best record in the league, followed by the Rams and Broncos. The Colts, Bears, and Seahawks sit at 8-3. The 49ers and Lions are both 7-4 and third in their respective divisions. If the season ended today, the Bills would squeak into the playoffs as the seventh seed, and the Chiefs would be watching from the outside.
All of that would've felt impossible three months ago. You might assume Anthony Richardson Sr. finally arrived, or that Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II are hurt. Neither is the clean story. Football is messy and unpredictable. Teams exceed expectations, others crater. Our job as fans is to separate what's real from what's noise.
We're over 70% of the way through the regular season now. Teams can only hide weaknesses for so long. The Patriots have rattled off nine straight, and Drake Maye is playing like someone who belongs. Mike Vrabel has assembled something special, and we can recognize that. The Seahawks are balanced and efficient. An aggressive run game, an explosive pass attack, a smothering defense, and playmaking special teams keep them in every game. Ben Johnson's influence on the Bears and Caleb Williams is evident. They're finally collecting the gritty wins that eluded them last year.
As Bill Parcells said, "You are what your record says you are." And the same blunt truth applies at a more granular level. At a certain point, you are what your fantasy production says you are.
Did anyone expect Matthew Stafford to be a top-five QB? Probably not, but he is. The preseason optimism around Tony Pollard, Isiah Pacheco, and Alvin Kamara surviving the dead zone is gone. George Pickens has outscored CeeDee Lamb this year. DeVonta Smith has outscored A.J. Brown. Those outcomes, like the expected team standings, would've been laughable in August. Preseason projections are helpful, but only for so long.
But just like teams reveal who they really are by Thanksgiving, players show us who they are for fantasy. Preseason narratives die. Usage stabilizes. Roles crystallize. Current truth replaces preseason projection.
Those surprises are what make this game both addicting and infuriating. A constant barrage of new information every week leaves us putting together fragmented pieces of a story. We react and reassess throughout the week, only to have a new slate of games overwhelm us with more information. Rinse and repeat for 17 weeks.
Once I finish this article, it feels as if the ink has dried from the previous week. I can turn the page and look at the next slate of games.
I hope you can use this list the same way I do, primarily for waivers and trades. I look at my weakest starter at each position and scan upward for upgrades. I hunt for teams with positional needs and pair my depth pieces into trades that improve my starting lineup. That process cuts through midweek transaction paralysis, and hopefully it helps you, too.
Injury-wise, this week was mercifully quiet after last week's carnage. Less reaction allows for more reflection. "You are what your fantasy production says you are." Expect some of the biggest movers to be informed by that bigger-picture view: Patrick Mahomes II has been dominant, Lamar Jackson has not. Chris Olave is performing like a per-game WR1, Justin Jefferson is not. With fewer headline shocks this week, we can focus on fundamentals.
As always, check Bob Henry's Rest-of-Season Projections for an alternate opinion, with projections fully customizable to your fantasy league's settings.
Each player below includes their current positional ranking; a "+" or "-" showing the change from last week, and "New" next to a name marks new additions to the rankings. Let's start with the quarterbacks.
Quarterbacks
Injuries and recoveries continue to be the primary cause of movements in the quarterback rankings. Joe Burrow is expected to make his return. Jayden Daniels is expected to return to practice. Baker Mayfield might miss some time with a shoulder injury. As for Kyler Murray? Well, your guess is as good as mine.
- QB1 - Josh Allen
- QB2 - Patrick Mahomes II (+2) - One of the things that makes Mahomes so special is his versatility. We have seen him dominate the league in different ways. Early in his career, he was a gunslinger who ripped the ball deep downfield for explosive plays. As he matured, he started taking what the defense gave him, picking teams apart underneath with quick, pinpoint passes. Now, in Year 8, Mahomes is rushing more than he ever has before. His 28.9 rushing yards per game are by far the most of his career, and he has already matched his career-best four rushing touchdowns. With six games remaining, he is only five first downs away from setting a new career high. Mahomes has always been a slippery quarterback who uses subtle moves to evade pressure. This year, he has used his rushing ability more aggressively. The added rushing threat opens up more in the passing game, and his 270.6 passing yards per contest are his most since his 2022 MVP season. You do not need advanced metrics to confirm Mahomes is good at football, but his +78.2 EPA ranks second in the league behind only Drake Maye. All of this is translating to fantasy production, where Mahomes' 22.2 points per game trail only Josh Allen. Mahomes is consistently one of the league's best quarterbacks, but his fantasy output has ebbed and flowed over the years. This season, it is gushing.
- QB3 - Jalen Hurts
- QB4 - Drake Maye (+1)
- QB5 - Lamar Jackson (-3) - He is still a great quarterback, and you are firing him up every week, but Jackson is fantasy's per-game QB13 through Week 12. He started the season hot, averaging a league-high 27.6 fantasy points over the first three weeks. He exited Week 4's game against the Chiefs with a hamstring injury, missed the next four weeks, and is now nursing ankle and toe injuries. While he has been quick to downplay the severity, he has not looked like his old self. The 14.0 fantasy points he has averaged over the last four weeks rank 23rd among quarterbacks. Typically a prolific runner, Jackson has averaged just 6.3 attempts and 17.8 rushing yards per game in his previous four outings, less than half of what he produced early in the year. He looks hesitant to use his legs. While there is hope Jackson can get healthy and return to his dominant form down the stretch, it is perfectly reasonable to bump some of the healthier, hotter quarterbacks ahead of him for now.
- QB6 - Daniel Jones
- QB7 - Dak Prescott
- QB8 - Matthew Stafford
- QB9 - Jaxson Dart (+1)
- QB10 - Justin Herbert (+1)
- QB11 - Joe Burrow (+7) - Burrow nearly played in Week 12 after logging full practices on Wednesday and Thursday. It now looks like he will make his return on Thursday night against the Ravens. The Bengals are 3-8 and backed into a wall. In a similar spot last year, Burrow finished the season as the high-scoring quarterback in football over the season's second half. He might not recapture that exact magic, but he is worth picking up in all formats.
- QB12 - Caleb Williams (+1)
- QB13 - Brock Purdy (-1)
- QB14 - Bo Nix
- QB15 - Baker Mayfield (-6) - While heaving a Hail Mary heading into halftime, Mayfield collapsed, grabbing his left shoulder. He returned after halftime, wearing a sling, while Teddy Bridgewater finished the game in relief. Mayfield suffered a torn labrum and a fracture to his non-throwing shoulder in 2021, which he had surgically repaired in the offseason. As the team awaits an MRI and more information on the severity, Mayfield's rest-of-season outlook looks bleak. Injury aside, it has been a rough season for Mayfield. He started hot, but injuries to his top pass-catchers created a difficult hurdle to overcome. The Buccaneers ran white-hot last year when Mayfield posted career-bests in completion percentage, touchdown rate, and success rate. Regression is hitting hard this season. He is fantasy's per-game QB17. Assuming he misses any time with this injury, he is safely droppable in most single-quarterback formats. Even if the news ends up being positive, fantasy managers in shallow leagues may still want to look elsewhere.
- QB16 - Jared Goff (-1)
- QB17 - Sam Darnold (-1)
- QB18 - Jordan Love (-1)
- QB19 - Trevor Lawrence
- QB20 - Jacoby Brissett (+6) - No one knows what to expect after Week 13. Kyler Murray's IR stint will end, and he could potentially return as the Cardinals' starting quarterback in Week 14. That means next week could theoretically be Brissett's last start. However, the Cardinals may be preparing for a future without Murray and could prefer to keep him healthy through the end of the year ahead of trade discussions or a potential release. If Brissett starts through the end of the season, he will warrant weekly consideration as a starter in all fantasy formats. Since Week 6, his 21.4 fantasy points per game are tied with Jalen Hurts for the third-most among quarterbacks. He has been a plug-and-play starter, and the hesitancy to rank him any higher is solely due to the uncertainty surrounding his role beyond next week.
- QB21 - C.J. Stroud
- QB22 - Bryce Young
- QB23 - Jayden Daniels (+5)
- QB24 - Tua Tagovailoa
- QB25 - Marcus Mariota (-2)
- QB26 - Aaron Rodgers (+1)
- QB27 - Cameron Ward (+3)
- QB28 - J.J. McCarthy (-8) - It is important to extend patience to young quarterbacks. McCarthy has just six career starts under his belt, and it is far too early to panic about his long-term outlook. But for fantasy purposes, there are only five weeks left in the season. McCarthy is expected to miss at least one game with a concussion. The chances of McCarthy showing enough to give you absolute confidence in starting him are extremely slim. In theory, his rushing upside offers some appeal in two-quarterback and superflex leagues. In single-quarterback formats, however, he is not rosterable.
- QB29 - Tyrod Taylor
- QB30 - Tyler Shough (+5)
- QB31 - Kirk Cousins
- QB32 - Kyler Murray (+2)
- QB33 - Geno Smith (+3)
- QB34 - Shedeur Sanders (+4)
- QB35 - Dillon Gabriel (+2)
- QB36 - Max Brosmer (New)
- QB37 - Teddy Bridgewater (New)
- QB38 - Justin Fields (-5)
- QB39 - Joe Flacco (-14)
- QB40 - Kenny Pickett (+7)
- QB41 - Mason Rudolph (-9)
- QB42 - Mac Jones (-3)
- QB43 - Jameis Winston (+2)
- QB44 - Davis Mills (-3)
- QB45 - Malik Willis (-3)
- QB46 - Spencer Rattler (-6)
- QB47 - Joe Milton III (-3)
- QB48 - Jalen Milroe (-2)
- QB49 - Andy Dalton (-1)
- QB50 - Jake Browning (-1)
- QB51 - Russell Wilson (-1)