Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 12: Baltimore Ravens

Photo: Vincent Carchietta, USA Today Sports

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Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Baltimore | Cincinnati | Cleveland | Denver | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | San Francisco | Seattle

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

Overview

The Ravens’ defense performed well in 2022. They were one of three teams to allow fewer than four yards per carry on the ground, and the eleven rushing scores they allowed ranked eighth. They gave a lot of completions and yards through the air but shut teams down when they needed to, allowing the fifth-fewest points through via the pass. Baltimore got after the quarterback, with their 48 sacks ranking fifth, and they were fourth in overall points allowed. The only thing this unit did not do well was take the ball away. With nine interceptions and six fumble recoveries, only the Jets and Jaguars took it away less. After a performance like that, there is no need to make many changes, and the Ravens did not. At least not when it comes to adding players. The biggest moves they made were not bringing back aging veterans Calais Campbell, Justin Houston, and Jason Pierre-Paul. Consider that addition by subtraction, if you will, but don’t overlook the fact that those three players accounted for 18 of the team’s sacks.

Defensive Linemen

The Ravens predominantly run a two-gap 3-4, asking their interior linemen to control the line of scrimmage by occupying space and blockers as opposed to penetrating and disrupting. That approach, and the fact that they rotate several guys to keep everyone fresh all but kills any chance of useful production from the inside guys. The makeup of Baltimore’s roster suits this approach but is generally not going to benefit IDP managers very much. Campbell was the only interior lineman to reach six fantasy points per game in 2022, and he is now wearing a Falcons uniform.

Justin Madubuike and Broderick Washington are set to be the starting tackles, Both are powerful big men with the ability to hold ground against double teams and blow up blockers at the point of attack versus the run. Madubuike is the closest thing to IDP relevant that this group has to offer. The 2020 third-round pick did very little statistically over his first two seasons. Last year he managed 42 combined stops with 5.5 sacks and 3 swatted passes. Not big numbers by any stretch, but enough to make him the number 28 tackle. With few leagues starting more than two interior linemen, that makes Madubuike an option as depth. Unfortunately, there is not much upside, and with many managers not even rostering backups at tackle, he is borderline roster worthy for most of us. Washington put up slightly better tackle totals in 2022 but lacks the juice to make an impact as a pass rusher. He was drafted two rounds later than Madubuike in 2020 and has two career sacks.

Veterans Brent Urban and Angelo Blackson provide the depth at tackle. Both are good matches for the scheme and responsibilities so the team could absorb an injury or two without missing a beat.

Michael Pierce was the starting nose tackle heading into last year, but he lasted just three games before being lost for the season. Then rookie third-round pick, Travis Jones, took over and finished the season as the starter. With Pierce healthy, it is unclear who will get the title of starter, but that is irrelevant anyway, as they are likely to share the load.

Speaking of sharing the load, the Baltimore defense faced 1151 plays in 2022. No Ravens interior lineman was on the field for more than 684 of them. Even if the scheme allowed them to be more aggressive, the lack of snaps would make it tough to be statistically productive.

Looking at the Ravens' pass rushers, it is hard to see them reaching 48 sacks again in 2023. They have some young guys with potential but are way short on proven players. Odafe Oweh led the team’s edge defenders with just 666 snaps in 2022. This was not a matter of missing time due to injury but rather a result of the multi-player rotation the Ravens use. In two seasons, Oweh has participated in 1249 plays and produced eight sacks. Hopefully, moving on from some of the veterans will allow more snaps for the young guns on the roster.

Tyus Bowser is the veteran of the group now. The 2017 second-round pick missed ten games last year, but he played a full slate in 2021. That season he put up respectable totals of 33-26-7 with a pair of forced fumbles. Those numbers also represent the best production of his career to date, which is not a good sign for a guy that is supposed to be the team’s best pass rusher.

The organization has high hopes for last year’s second-round pick, David Ojabo, but he has to get on the field first. He is a highly talented player who posted eleven sacks in thirteen games as a junior at Michigan in 2021. The problem is, those thirteen games are all we have to go on for his evaluation. Ojabo missed all but three games in 2020 with an ankle injury, then tore his Achilles’ at the Wolverines pro day ahead of last year’s draft. Considering the moves Baltimore has not made, they must believe in the young man and feel good about where he is with the injury, but he remains unproven until he is not.

In the short term, fourth-round rookie, Tavius Robinson, is an insurance policy that will see a few snaps every game. In the long term, the team hopes he will be a highly productive addition to the rotation. Robinson needs to grow into his frame a little to be a better run defender but he has the tools to be a major contributor. He already has an arsenal of pass-rush moves and, like an old veteran, uses them to set up blockers.

• Edge Tyus Bowser – Potential depth with limited upside
• Edge Odafe Oweh – High upside youngster, talented but unproven
• Edge David Ojabo – Great expectations based on a short resume
• Edge Tavius Robinson – Talented pass rusher that needs to mature physically
• DT Justin Madubuike – Depth in twelve-team leagues starting two tackles
• DT Brent Urban – No impact
• DT Broderick Washington – Marginal value at best
• DT Angelo Blackson – No impact
• NT Michael Pierce – No impact
• NT Travis Jones – No impact