Week 7 will be a challenge. It is a 10-game slate, and half of the games have a total at or below 40 points. Only one game (Chargers at Chiefs) has a total of 45 or more. This could be a very low-scoring week. At least 20% of the teams on the slate will be missing their starting quarterback. Adding to the difficulty, wind could be an issue on the East Coast with three games forecast to have sustained winds of 15 MPH and gusts to 25 MPH.
The good news is that the lack of obviously outstanding spots means there are more players worth seriously considering than usual. We know we probably will not need a massive score to take down a tournament, so some mid-priced guys with 20-point upside are more in play than usual. We will look at both the top overall plays and some spots in lower-scoring games that many will overlook, which could put up tournament-winning scores in Week 7.
Quarterback
The forecast calls for rain and sustained winds upwards of 15 MPH on the East Coast on Sunday, complicating things. Josh Allen ($9,000) and Lamar Jackson ($8,000) are two of the three highest-ceiling quarterbacks on the slate — with Patrick Mahomes II ($9,200) being the other — and both could be in bad weather environments. Mahomes is the safest play on the slate but has not been putting up the GPP-winning fantasy numbers of past years. Plus, he is priced way up. If the slate plays out such that the top quarterbacks do not hit their ceiling, we may only need 20 points or so from a more affordable quarterback. That brings players like Geno Smith ($7,000), Russell Wilson ($7,200), and Deshaun Watson squarely into play.
Top Plays
Justin Herbert, Chargers ($8,300)
- The more I dig into the numbers this week (and factor in the weather), the more Herbert moves up my GPP rankings. The Chiefs-Chargers matchup has shootout potential, and even if the Chargers can get out to an early lead, there is no game script in which Herbert will not be forced to be extremely aggressive.
- Herbert has been somewhat inconsistent this season, but we know he has a strong ceiling as a passer and runner. He threw for a season-high 405 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 3 against the Vikings. The next week, he carried it 12 times for 27 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Raiders.
Geno Smith, Seahawks ($7,000)
- Smith has only gone for over 20 FanDuel points once in his last nine games. However, the matchup at home against a fading Cardinals defense, which has allowed the sixth-most (20.3) fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, is strong enough to consider Smith a top GPP option in Week 7.
- Part of the attraction to Smith here is that he is priced very affordably and should have a very solid floor. On a slate that is expected to be low-scoring overall, we may not need 25 or 30 points from our quarterback like we do most weeks. If Smith can give us 20 and nobody else has a huge week, there is a clear path for Smith to be on a tournament-winning roster.
Others to Consider
Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($8,000)
- The Lions defense is tough, and there is the chance of wind and rain on Sunday in Baltimore. If Jackson were just a passer, it would be hard to back him this week in tournaments. However, we know Jackson is much more than that. His rushing ability means there is no game script in which he cannot go for 20-plus fantasy points, even if Baltimore is forced to go more run-heavy. Furthermore, the price is extremely affordable. There is very little gap in salary between Jackson and the bargain-priced quarterbacks like Joshua Dobbs ($6,600) and Baker Mayfield ($6,600).
Deshaun Watson, Browns ($7,500)
- This play carries some risk. It looks like Watson is set to return after a two-game absence due to a bruised rotator cuff. The risk of re-injury is a bit scary, but we want to build our tournament rosters with a mindset focused on upside, not risk aversion.
- The Browns offense carries some intrigue this week. We simply do not know how good this unit can be. 40% of their games were played without Watson in the lineup. In another 40% of their games, the weather was bad, and the defense held the opposition (Cincinnati and Tennessee) to just three points. The offense did not need to flex its muscles in either of those games. Facing a mediocre Colts defense indoors, this is the best game environment the Browns offense has been in all year.
Continue reading this content with a HALL OF FAME subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football
only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE