Week 7 will be a challenge. It is a 10-game slate, and half of the games have a total at or below 40 points. Only one game (Chargers at Chiefs) has a total of 45 or more. This could be a very low-scoring week. At least 20% of the teams on the slate will be missing their starting quarterback. Adding to the difficulty, wind could be an issue on the East Coast with three games forecast to have sustained winds of 15 MPH and gusts to 25 MPH.
The good news is that the lack of obviously outstanding spots means there are more players worth seriously considering than usual. We know we probably will not need a massive score to take down a tournament, so some mid-priced guys with 20-point upside are more in play than usual. We will look at both the top overall plays and some spots in lower-scoring games that many will overlook, which could put up tournament-winning scores in Week 7.
Quarterback
The forecast calls for rain and sustained winds upwards of 15 MPH on the East Coast on Sunday, complicating things. Josh Allen ($9,000) and Lamar Jackson ($8,000) are two of the three highest-ceiling quarterbacks on the slate — with Patrick Mahomes II ($9,200) being the other — and both could be in bad weather environments. Mahomes is the safest play on the slate but has not been putting up the GPP-winning fantasy numbers of past years. Plus, he is priced way up. If the slate plays out such that the top quarterbacks do not hit their ceiling, we may only need 20 points or so from a more affordable quarterback. That brings players like Geno Smith ($7,000), Russell Wilson ($7,200), and Deshaun Watson squarely into play.
