The Guru and the Godfather: Week 18

Photo: Jamie Germano, USA Today Sports

John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2023 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

This week is unlike any other—a combination of celebration from IDP managers who won championships last week, somewhere between wistful contemplation and blind rage who lost, and a smattering of managers playing Week 18 Championship Games

So, the last Guru and the Godfather will be both a look back at the season that was—and a glance ahead at the week that will be.

It flew by (again). But this is it. Endsville. Where all rail service terminates.

For most IDP managers, the 2023 campaign has concluded—but too few are willing to perform an autopsy on why the season didn't end as they wanted. No fear here, though—which defensive lineman was your biggest disappointment of 2023? Who most exceeded your expectations?

GURU: When it comes to disappointment on defense in 2023, the Philadelphia Eagles are synonymous with the word, especially when it comes to their edge defenders. Take your pick between Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat. Both were top-ten at the position in 2022 when the team piled up 70 sacks. This year, both players were well outside of the top 30 for large parts of the season. For anyone out there who thinks the defensive coordinator and scheme are not all that important, this is your wake-up call.

Los Angeles Chargers edge rusher Khalil Mack was 32 when the season started and had not been a major IDP factor since 2018. I didn't completely write him off before this season but considered him a lame duck and no more than a decent DL2 or solid depth. Mack was just that over the first three games, then came the week four matchup with his former team. Granted, six of Mack's sixteen sacks came in that one monster game, but he also had 52 tackles and 17 assists, his best numbers in that area since 2017, and he forced five fumbles. Had anyone tried to convince me in August that Mack would be a top-three edge, I'd have thought they were looney tunes.

GODFATHER: What's Up, Doc?

John will get that. The percentage of readers who do is depressingly low for someone whose birthday is in a couple of days.

This is going to be one of those weeks where Norton jacks all my calls—Mack has to be viewed as one of the best IDP values up front in 2023. But Justin Madibuike of the Baltimore Ravens has to make the list as well. Madibuike wasn't just low on the IDP radar entering the season—he was off it altogether. The fourth-year veteran has more sacks in 2023 (13) than in his first three seasons combined. Among defensive tackles, only DeForest Buckner of the Indianapolis Colts had more fantasy points this year. Madibuike may well be overdrafted and disappoint in 2024 (Fluke years make the Godfather twitchy), but this year? What a ride.

In 2022, Cameron Jordan of the New Orleans Saints topped 65 total tackles, tallied 8.5 sacks, and finished as a top-15 defensive lineman. Jordan has been an IDP stalwart for years. But Father Time is undefeated, and in 2023, age caught up with the 34-year-old. Jordan's numbers didn't just fall off this season. They plummeted off a cliff—41 total stops, 2.5 sacks, and a fantasy finish outside the top 100 among defensive linemen. Just…ouch.

We'll flip the script at linebacker—which player at IDP's most important position most blew your doors off? Who most left you hanging?

GURU: Terrell Bernard of the Buffalo Bills is a player that I was fairly high on back in July. When he missed much of training camp and was not even assured of a starting job (as far as we knew) heading into the final weeks of the pre-season, my expectations sort of flatlined. Once the regular season started, I was pleasantly surprised to see him not only in the starting lineup but excelling both on the field and on the stat sheets. Even early on, I was expecting a quality LB2. Seeing Bernard in the top five in most formats exceeded my wildest expectations for him.

GODFATHER: The Guru's persistently positive attitude won't allow him to list the biggest letdown at linebacker. Either that or someone burned him so badly that he's still psychically blocking it out.

Hey. It happens—the words Rolando McClain still make me break out in a cold sweat.

It's hard to argue Bernard as the biggest surprise in IDP at the linebacker position, but Robert Spillane of the Las Vegas Raiders crushed expectations as well. I liked Spillane as a value pick over the summer. I even posited that the 28-year-old could out-point Divine Deablo in 2023. But no one saw Spillane piling up 136 total tackles, picking up 3.5 sacks, logging three interceptions, and finishing as a top-10 fantasy linebacker.

Frankly, more IDP pundits (or IDPundits, as the case may be) should have seen Shaquille Leonard's decline coming after all the injuries. The cold, hard truth is we didn't want to. We wanted to believe that the player who tallied over 120 tackles in each of his first four seasons was still there. But he isn't—Leonard went from playing part-time in Indianapolis to being unhappy about that role to being released altogether to essentially filling the same role in Philadelphia. That injury derailed his career to the extent they have is depressing. But that doesn't make it any less so.

The reality in IDP is that defensive backs are a crapshoot (or so the Godfather keeps saying). Which DB most turned out to be a winning dice roll? Which came up boxcars despite lofty expectations?

GURU: A lot of people wanted to write off Julian Love when he went to the Seattle Seahawks. The overwhelming consensus was that he was no more than an insurance plan for Jamal Adams. I stuck to my guns on this one and kept saying that Love was just too good a player not to be on the field, and if he was on the field, he would be productive. There were some ups and downs, including a few games when he was second fiddle to Adams, but once the numbers were in, Love was top five in most formats. With Adams landing in the doghouse down the stretch, it now looks like Love could be the future of the strong safety position in Seattle. Can you say lucky number seven?

Hands down, the most disappointing defensive back to me was Jalen Pitre of the Houston Texans. This guy was the fantasy game's top player at the position in nearly all formats as a rookie in 2022. He was the first defensive back off the board in most redraft leagues. I was fortunate enough not to get stuck with him anywhere because, like The Godfather, I don't draft defensive backs early, but it is still shocking to find his name down around number 70 in the final rankings at DB.

GODFATHER: Pitre is going to get mentioned a lot as the biggest disappointment at defensive back in 2023—as he should be. He's a shining example of why I don't invest in high-end options at the position. The bust rate at the top is just too high—and some guys come from nowhere each and every season to outpoint the supposedly “elite” defensive backs.

Take Minnesota Vikings safeties Camryn Bynum and Josh Metellus. While Harrison Smith got the preseason run, it was Bynum and Metellus who thrived in Minnesota's three-safety looks. Bynum had more tackles this year (130) than any defensive back in the league. Metellus logged 110 and was an IDP game-changer over the second half of the season. Bynum was maybe a deep-league dart throw. Metellus was an afterthought.

Looking for the biggest disappointment at defensive back is like looking for water in the ocean. Kevin Byard's season-long numbers look OK, but he was unstartable most of his time in Philadelphia. Rayshawn Jenkins of the Jacksonville Jaguars went from inside the top five to outside the top 30. Age appears to have gotten to Jordan Poyer of the Buffalo Bills too. And last year's No. 1 cornerback (L'Jarius Sneed of the Kansas City Chiefs) sits outside the top 10.

Don't pay retail for defensive backs—ever.