Photo: USA Today Sports

Gambling on the NFL is big business, especially after a 2018 Supreme Court decision striking down a federal ban on sports betting. Recent estimates suggest that as many as 46.6 million people will place a bet on the NFL this year, representing nearly one out of every five Americans of legal gambling age. As a result, there's been an explosion in sports betting content, most of which promises to make you a more profitable bettor. Given that backdrop, it can be hard to know who to trust.

Fortunately, you can trust me when I promise that I'm not going to make you a more profitable sports bettor. And neither will any of those other columns. It's essentially impossible for any written column to do so for a number of reasons I'll detail over the year. (I'm not saying it's impossible to be profitable in the long-term by betting on the NFL, just that it's impossible to get there thanks to a weekly picks column.)

This column's animating philosophy is not to make betting more profitable but to make betting more entertaining. And maybe along the way, we can make it a bit less unprofitable in the process, discussing how to find bets where the house's edge is smaller, how to manage your bankroll, and how to dramatically increase your return on investment in any family or office pick pools (because Dave in HR and Sarah in accounting are much softer marks than Caesar's and MGM).

If that sounds interesting to you, feel free to join me as we discuss the weekly Odds and Ends.

Looking at the Futures

Hey all, welcome to Odds and Ends! For those who have followed all season, thanks for sticking with us. For those just tuning in during the playoffs, around here, we mostly focus on the nuts and bolts of how Vegas makes its money. We look at which bets are easier to turn a profit (it's player props, but anything where they cap your max bet is a solid choice), we talk about why there's a slight bias towards unders (but not enough to turn a profit) and why futures bets are marginally softer (because your money is tied up for so long you can't really take advantage).

And then, since I think there's a rule somewhere that every football site needs a weekly picks column, we also make weekly picks against the spread. But since weekly picks against the spread are the sharpest lines in all of Vegas and there's absolutely, positively no chance that any of us are turning a long-term profit at it, I try to make it as fun and irreverent as possible. Picking against the spread is a figurative crapshoot. Sometimes, we turn it into a literal crapshoot, too.

Since it's the start of the playoffs, I wanted to kick us off with a look at the current Super Bowl futures for all remaining teams. Last year, I correctly picked the Kansas City Chiefs to win it all. I also incorrectly picked the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, and Miami Dolphins to win it all. You can call me Fox Mulder because I want to believe.

You're all in for a repeat performance because I'm about to correctly pick this year's Super Bowl Champion and also incorrectly pick everyone else.

San Francisco 49ers (+225)
Baltimore Ravens (+325)

They're both armed with a bye, and (at least according to schedule-adjusted points scored and allowed) they both rank in the Top 3 in the NFL in both offense and defense. Of course, they're going to win it all this year. Both of them? Yes, both of them.

Buffalo Bills (+600)

They're balanced, they have a perennial MVP contender at quarterback, they're 5-0 since their bye (with road wins against two AFC playoff teams and a home dismantling of the #2 seed in the NFC), and they're guaranteed to be at home in the elements until at least the AFC Championship game. They're an easy Super Bowl pick.

Dallas Cowboys (+750)

They're 8-0 at home and won't have to travel for anyone except the 49ers. Dak Prescott has arguably been the best and most consistent quarterback in football from Week 1 through Week 18, and Micah Parsons somehow managed to lead the league in pressure rate despite also leading the league in double teams drawn.

Kansas City Chiefs (+1000)

Hello? +1000 odds on the defending Super Bowl Champions? A team with two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes II, first-ballot Hall of Fame head coach Andy Reid, and their best defense since 2016? Am I missing something here? They're a slam-dunk bet.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1500)

Okay, so maybe they're entering the playoffs on a bit of a cold streak. (As long as you consider "1-5 over their last six games" a bit of a cold streak.) The 2012 Baltimore Ravens were 1-4 over their last five games and were taken to overtime by the 7-9 Chargers the week before that, yet they still put up one of the most dominant Super Bowl runs of all time. You don't think Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith are a match for Joe Flacco, Anquan Boldin, and Torrey Smith?

Let's not forget that the Tush Push means the Eagles are the only team in the league that only needs nine yards for a first down.

Miami Dolphins (+1800)

They're the fastest team in the history of football and a threat to put up 70 on any given night. Speed-- as they say-- kills.

Detroit Lions (+2000)

Why on earth wouldn't you pick the Detroit Lions to win it all? They haven't won a playoff game since 1991. They're the best story in football right now. Do you hate fun?

Cleveland Browns (+3000)

Cleveland's defense is terrifying and they allowed the fewest yards in the NFL this year. Their only problem is their offense. Or perhaps I should say their only problem was their offense, because the Browns lost their first game after signing Joe Flacco before reeling off four straight wins to end the season (before a meaningless Week 18 game where they rested their starters). They averaged 8 points more per game in December with Flacco under center than they did the rest of the year (28.6 vs. 20.6). Also, find me any quarterback ever with a better postseason than Flacco's 73 of 126 for 1140/11/0 in 2012. I'll wait.

Los Angeles Rams (+5000)

They've made two of the last six Super Bowls, winning it all the last time Cooper Kupp was healthy for the playoffs. Now they're adding Puka Nacua, fresh off breaking every rookie receiving record worth breaking. Do we think Matt Stafford, Aaron Donald, and Cooper Kupp forgot how to play? Do we think Sean McVay forgot how to coach? No, we do not.

Houston Texans (+6000)

The Texans tied the Cardinals for the worst Super Bowl odds this preseason. The Cardinals! Houston's season-long over/under was set at 6.5, which they topped more than a month ago. I'm pretty sure the harder people doubt them, the better they play. If that's true, then at +6000 to win it all, they're going to be borderline unstoppable.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7500)

Look, if we evaluate things objectively, Baker Mayfield is playing better this year than Tom Brady did last year. Maybe you've heard of that guy? Went to 10 Super Bowls; won 7 of them? If that's how Tom Brady did, imagine how many Super Bowls are going to be won by the guy who is playing better than Tom Brady.

Green Bay Packers (+10,000)

No quarterback in history has ever started 120 games for the Packers and not won a Super Bowl. That's just facts. Jordan Love looked a lot like a 120-game starter to me this year, especially down the stretch, so the only question that matters here is whether he's going to win it all sooner, or later. At +10,000, I'll gladly bet "sooner".

Pittsburgh Steelers (+15,000)

The Steelers have won the most Super Bowls in history. (Tied with the Patriots, but I don't see the Patriots in the field, do you?) They're undefeated this season with Mason Rudolph under center-- in fact, Rudolph already eliminated two teams from the playoffs (the Bengals and Seahawks) and notched a road win against arguably the best team in football (the Ravens). And they're getting +15,000? What are we even doing here?

Lines I'm Seeing