Gambling on the NFL is big business, especially after a 2018 Supreme Court decision striking down a federal ban on sports betting. Recent estimates suggest that as many as 46.6 million people will place a bet on the NFL this year, representing nearly one out of every five Americans of legal gambling age. As a result, there's been an explosion in sports betting content, most of which promises to make you a more profitable bettor. Given that backdrop, it can be hard to know who to trust.
Fortunately, you can trust me when I promise that I'm not going to make you a more profitable sports bettor. And neither will any of those other columns. It's essentially impossible for any written column to do so, for a number of reasons I detailed here. (I'm not saying it's impossible to be profitable betting on the NFL, just that it's impossible to get there thanks to a weekly picks column.)
This column's animating philosophy is not to make betting more profitable but to make betting more entertaining. And maybe along the way, we can make it a bit less unprofitable in the process, discussing how to find bets where the house's edge is smaller, how to manage your bankroll, and how to dramatically increase your return on investment in any family or office pick pools (because Dave in HR and Sarah in accounting are much softer marks than Caesar's and MGM).
If that sounds interesting to you, feel free to join me as we discuss the weekly Odds and Ends.
Looking at the Futures
Hey all, welcome to Odds and Ends! For those who have followed all season, thanks for sticking with us. For those just tuning in during the playoffs, around here, we mostly focus on the nuts and bolts of how Vegas makes its money. We look at which bets are easier to turn a profit (it's player props, but anything where they cap your max bet is a solid choice), we talk about why there's a slight bias towards unders (but not enough to turn a profit) and why futures bets are marginally softer (because your money is tied up for so long you can't really take advantage).
And then, since I think there's a rule somewhere that every football site needs a weekly picks column, we also make weekly picks against the spread. But since weekly picks against the spread are the sharpest lines in all of Vegas and there's absolutely, positively no chance that any of us are turning a long-term profit at it, I try to make it as fun and irreverent as possible. Picking against the spread is a figurative crapshoot. Sometimes we turn it into a literal crapshoot, too.
Since it's the start of the playoffs, I wanted to kick us off with a look at the current Super Bowl futures for all remaining teams. And since I'm a pretty positive person, let's look at reasons to believe in each of these squads.
Kansas City Chiefs (+330)
Buffalo Bills (+400)
Philadelphia Eagles (+500)
The three top teams unsurprisingly have the three easiest cases to make. Two of these teams have Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts at quarterback. The third has Patrick Mahomes II. Two of them have a top defense. The third has Patrick Mahomes II. The Eagles have one of the best wide receiver duos in the league and phenomenal pass-blocking. The Bills have probably the best narrative and motivation of any team in the league right now. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes II. It's just a real toss-up.
San Francisco 49ers (+500)
For years, the 49ers have gotten one of the best EPA (estimated points added) totals in the league from a quarterback who got no respect in Jimmy Garoppolo, who ranked 4th in EPA per play from 2017 to 2021 with 0.202. This year they finally changed it up and decided to get one of the best EPA totals from a quarterback who gets in respect in Brock Purdy, who ranks 6th in the league in EPA per play with 0.196. (One of the five quarterbacks ahead of him is Jimmy Garoppolo.) It's just like normal, only different.
What's not like normal? For starters: San Francisco's defense is allowing 4.6 fewer points per game than would be expected based on their strength of schedule. This is just the second time they're at least four points better than average since they pulled it off three straight years from 2011 to 2013 (making the NFC Championship Game all three times and the Super Bowl once). The other time was in 2019 when they held a 10-point lead with half a quarter remaining in the Super Bowl. A Kyle Shanahan offense paired with a credible defense is a truly terrifying thing for the rest of the league, and the 49ers led the NFL in scoring differential in 2022. Any fan who has ever gotten sick of the "Mr. Irrelevant" tag given to the last pick of the draft should root for a deep run by Purdy.
Cincinnati Bengals (+750)
The Bengals are a much better squad than the team that lost the Super Bowl last year. They've increased their average margin of victory from 4.9 points to 6.0 points despite facing a much tougher schedule (with an average opponent who was 1 point better than average compared to 2 points worse). Their schedule-adjusted margin of victory for the year is actually better than the Chiefs or the Eagles. The team is battle-tested and beat the Chiefs three times during the 2022 calendar year (albeit by just three points each time).
Dallas Cowboys (+1300)
By point differential, Dallas (+125) belongs in a tier with the Chiefs (+127) or Eagles (+133), especially considering they had the hardest schedule of the three. When they're on, they're one of the few teams that pairs a Top 3 defense with an elite quarterback. Their highs are arguably the highest in the league. The problem? They're also the team that lost by 20 to the Washington Commanders despite playing their starters all game last week. "Up and down" is not really the description you want in a single-elimination tournament. But if they can string together 3 or 4 good games in a row, I'm not sure there's a more dangerous team in the league.
Los Angeles Chargers (+2100)
There are few quarterbacks as capable of carrying a team on their back as well as Justin Herbert has. Unfortunately, there are few quarterbacks in the playoffs right now that have to carry their teams on their backs as much as Justin Herbert does. The talent is there to make this team dangerous, and some key players are getting healthy at the right time (although Mike Williams is still not practicing). This is the team that split the season series against the Denver Broncos, but on the other hand, it's the only AFC West team that's managed to give the Chiefs any trouble, and a single-elimination tournament probably plays to their strengths.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2800)
Minnesota Vikings (+3000)
The Minnesota Vikings haven't lost a 1-score game all season. I mean, they're only 2-4 in games that were decided by more than 8 points and they just became the first team in history to win 13 games with a negative point differential. That record in one-score games isn't exactly sustainable. But we should still take a moment to appreciate the fact that Minnesota somehow managed to go 11-0 this year in close games. Maybe that's luck. Given that playoff games tend to be closer and lower-scoring, maybe that's an advantage.
Baltimore Ravens (+5000)
The good: the Ravens are an experienced team with a former Super Bowl-winning head coach and, theoretically, a former league MVP at quarterback. The bad: Lamar Jackson hasn't played since Week 13 and we don't know if or when he'll be back. The kind of good again: if we did know that, the odds for the Ravens would be much better. If the team can make it past the Bengals and if Jackson returns next week, this bet will seem like a bargain. That's a lot of "ifs", but a lot of "ifs" is what +5000 is going to buy you.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5000)
This is a much worse team than the squad that made a surprising AFC Championship game run in 2017 and came a quarter shy of the Super Bowl. But Trevor Lawrence is a better quarterback than Blake Bortles. (At least, for the sake of my friends who are Jaguars fans, I dearly hope he is.) And Doug Pederson already has a surprising Super Bowl championship on his resume.
New York Giants (+5500)
The Giants have won the Super Bowl in two of their last four playoff appearances. Granted, those two Super Bowls came back in 2007 and 2011, but neither of those teams was expected to do much, either. If the Giants, Buccaneers, and Seahawks all win this weekend, then New York faces Tom Brady in the divisional round, which pretty much guarantees them a free pass to the NFC Championship game after a game-winning 4th-quarter drive featuring a spectacular highlight-reel catch, just because of the Rule of Threes.
Seattle Seahawks (+8500)
If not for Damar Hamlin's continued recovery, Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks would be the best story in the NFL these days. Both left for dead entering the season-- the latter after a messy breakup with their former star quarterback, the former after an ugly start to his career and a long stint as a backup. When I say that no one believed in Geno Smith, I include his own team in that list; the Seahawks traded for Drew Lock from Denver and repeatedly asserted that he was the front-runner for the job. After getting mocked in 2014 for saying he'd shown "flashes of being a Pro-Bowl-caliber quarterback", Smith finally made the doubters eat their words, finishing 4th in the league in passing touchdowns and securing that Pro Bowl invitation.
The Seahawks aren't a great team. They might not even be a good team, finishing with a +6 point differential against a slightly below-average schedule and needing a lot of help from the Detroit Lions in Week 18 just to make the postseason. But after opening the season with the third-lowest projected win total by Vegas, no team in the league has as much experience proving the doubters wrong this year.
Miami Dolphins (+10,000)
With Tua Tagovailoa healthy, the Dolphins have been one of the best teams in the league. The team opened the season 8-0 in games Tagovailoa started and finished and 0-3 in games he did not, with wins at Baltimore and at home against Buffalo, plus a game in Cincinnati that stood at 7-6 when Tua was hurt. With three serious concussions so far this season, the question starts to move from "will Tagovailoa return this postseason" to "will Tagovailoa be ready by the start of next year?" Sidney Crosby, after a series of concussions in the 2010-2011 NHL season, sat out most of the next season before he felt right enough to return to action. Brain injuries follow their own timelines.
Can the Dolphins compete without Tagovailoa? They'll turn to Skylar Thompson, who would set the record for the lowest-drafted rookie quarterback to start a playoff game... if Brock Purdy wasn't going to set it instead one day earlier. Like the 49ers, the Dolphins have the kind of stellar offensive weapons and creative offensive scheme that can get good production out of limited or inexperienced quarterbacks. Unlike the 49ers, the Dolphins don't have the kind of defense that can keep them in the game until the offense strikes. But I suppose that's why Miami is getting +10,000 while San Francisco is down at +500.
Lines I'm Seeing
| HOME | ROAD | O/U | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | -10 | SEA | 42 | |
| JAX | LAC | -2.5 | 47 | |
| BUF | -13 | MIA | 43 | |
| MIN | -3 | NYG | 48.5 | |
| CIN | -10 | BAL | 40.5 | |
| TB | DAL | -2.5 | 45.5 |
Revenge Games of the Week
For the first time in history, the NFL features six playoff games in a single weekend that are rematches of regular-season matchups. If one hypothetically wanted to pick the team that lost against the spread last time to win against the spread this time, one would pick:
Seattle (+10) at San Francisco
LA Chargers (-2.5) at Jacksonville
Buffalo (-13) vs. Miami
Minnesota (-3) vs. NY Giants
Baltimore (+10) at Cincinnati
Dallas (-2.5) at Tampa Bay
(The Bills and Dolphins split their two meetings, but the Dolphins covered the spread in both. The Bengals and Ravens also split the season series, but the Bengals covered in both.)
Pick of the Week
Buffalo (-13) vs. Miami
I meant what I said, and I said what I meant. (An elephant's faithful one hundred percent!) The reason I love the NFL more than any other sport is because it makes the best storytelling medium. I'm rooting for memorable storylines and indelible images. Last week I promised I'd be picking Buffalo no matter what silly lines Vegas gave them until either the Bills were eliminated or Damar Hamlin was holding up the Lombardi Trophy at midfield with confetti fluttering down around him. So that's what we're doing.
