Prop Talk Week 7

Photo: Katie Stratman, USA Today Sports

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Week 6 Recap- 2-3:

2-3 is not ideal in a given week, but not every week can be a winner. Still 18-12, but that’s now two losing weeks in a row, so we need to bounce back here.

Joe Burrow Under 279.5 Passing Yards- Win
C.J. Stroud Over 229.5 Passing Yards- Loss
D.J. Moore Over 60.5 Receiving Yards- Loss
Christian McCaffrey Under 110.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards- Win
Alvin Kamara Under 91.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards- Loss

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Week 7 Props

Desmond Ridder Over 211.5 Passing Yards +110

There’s some massive disrespect considering the last two weeks for the Falcons this week. Over the last two weeks, Ridder has topped 300 yards and is now facing a Buccaneers defense that the way to beat them is through the air. Besides the Week 2 performance against Philadelphia, Tampa Bay has been dominant against the run. Besides D’Andre Swift, they’ve not allowed a running back to top 51 yards, as Alvin Kamara was the only one who barely broke over the 50-yard mark. Meanwhile, last week, the Buccaneers allowed Jared Goff to throw for 353, as they’ve now allowed over 211 in three games this season. With Drake London and Kyle Pitts starting to emerge, expect Ridder to be closer to 300 than 200.

Tyson Bagent Over 183.5 Passing Yards

This one is interesting because the sportsbooks are begging people to take the under here. However, this is one where Bagent comes in outperforms the expectation. This was one where I was at the game, and thought Bagent looked much better than expected as he gets the ball out quickly, and is confident completing 71.4% of his passes last week. The Raiders' secondary has been a much-improved unit than compared to the last several seasons, but with the Bears being down two of their three starting running backs, expect them to continue to throw the ball around 30 times this week which Bagent should be able to get to 183.5 if he throws 30 times.

Deshaun Watson Under 24.5 Rushing Yards

Watson has run for over 24.5 rushing yards just once this season. A healthy Watson and this bet is a no-bet, but with him dealing with this shoulder injury, do we think he’s going to run at all? The only way that he does, this is if there is no defender within 10 yards and he can just slide. Even still, I highly doubt he’s going to want to risk a hit on that injured shoulder which has already caused him to miss essentially three weeks (inclusive of the bye). It just seems extremely unlikely unless there’s a breakdown where he has a wide-open run and can slide that he will top this number.