Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Thomas has remained healthy to start the season and has seen his volume remain steady. He has a great matchup against Campbell and the Jaguars' defense this week, which have surrendered the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including the second-most to the outside and fifth-most to the slot. Thomas lines up on the outside 68% of the time and should see the biggest boost for this offense. Campbell is a good corner but is currently allowing 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 19% of the time. Chris Olave also gets a boost this week, but Thomas should be the main beneficiary of the good matchup.
Most of the Chargers offense has gone through Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, but that could all change this week with a prime matchup for Palmer on the outside. He will see a lot of Watson in coverage this week, who has been picked on 32% of the time and is allowing 0.71 fantasy points per coverage snap because of it. Kansas City has been playing a bend-but-not-break style defense this season and will face their best offense in the Chargers this week. Look for Palmer to get in on the fun for the first time since Mike Williams got hurt.
Seattle can always be tough to predict. There are weeks when Lockett looks like a WR1 and leads the offense. Then there are weeks when he totally disappears and they do nothing but run the ball. This week, we should see shades of the WR1 in what is one of the better matchups of the week. Wilson is being targeted on 25% of coverage snaps and is allowing 0.60 fantasy points per play. He has played more than any other corner in this defense due to injuries but has really struggled at times. Look for Lockett to score early and often in what is a great matchup for Seattle this week.
The entire Rams' group of receivers should get a boost this week against a poor Pittsburgh secondary, but Nacua should lead the list when you factor in price and availability. Cooper Kupp has come back with a bang, and both receivers have been able to coexist in the offense so far. There are plenty of targets to go around, and both have seen the end zone in recent weeks. Nacua has a great matchup against Wallace on the outside, who has been targeted on 28% of coverage snaps and allowed 0.51 fantasy points per play. Both receivers should finish in the top 20 this week, but the price tag on Nacua is significantly lower than Kupp. Look for a big week from the Rams offense.
The struggles of Jackson and New England as a whole have continued through Week 6 and will not get any easier against the Bills. Davis did not look great last week against the Giants, with just two catches and a fumble, but he was coming off four straight games with a touchdown before that. Jackson has struggled on the outside and is currently being targeted on 30% of coverage snaps, allowing 0.40 fantasy points per play. Stefon Diggs may get the most targets in this offense, but Davis has the better matchup this week. Look for him to be a low-cost WR2 option this week.
San Francisco is coming off their first loss of the season against an elite Cleveland defense. This week, they get a break against a Minnesota secondary that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Byron Murphy Jr. is the only corner who is playing every down in this defense, and the rest has been a rotation of players with no one seizing the role. Aiyuk may see an even bigger target share if Deebo Samuel is ruled out and with Christian McCaffrey dealing with an oblique injury. This offense has more than enough power to get through Minnesota this week and Aiyuk could lead the way with the current rash of injuries.
TE Dallas Goedert (PHI vs. MIA)
The Eagles' offense seems to have a different game plan every week and features different players. Goedert has been a main point of emphasis, with 17 combined targets over the past week and 9+ fantasy points in his last three games. Miami has not played extremely well against tight ends and has allowed three different players to top 11 points. Look for Goedert to continue his expanded role and land another double-digit point week.
TE Luke Musgrave (GB vs. DEN)
There are six teams on a bye this week, and there will be streaming tight ends galore. Musgrave is one of the more attractive options with a matchup against Denver. The Broncos have allowed four tight ends to score double-digit points, with two going for over 20. This defense is not playing well and has shown they cannot stop anyone right now. Denver has allowed the most points to opposing tight ends by far, and we should expect that trend to continue this week.
Continue reading this content with a PRO subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE