Welcome to Week 14 of the 2023 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Skittish about December
- System or Player? The WR Edition
- Old or Prime? Aging Top Producers in 2024 Redraft Leagues
- For Real/Fool's Gold - RB Edition (see below)
Let's roll.
For Real/Fool's Gold - RB Edition
Matt Waldman: These backs have been top-24 producers for the past month.
In re-draft formats with PPR scoring and thinking about taking a runner to be your RB1 and/or RB2...
Which two are most likely worth a top-48 pick next year?
Jordan McNamara: Kyren Williams is trusted by the Rams as an elite volume running back. His profile did not suggest that coming into the NFL, but his usage shows a level of confidence in Williams that suggested he could be a part of the team's offensive future. Jaylen Warren would be the other player, given his efficiency and what should be an improving Pittsburgh offense, but I do not feel great about his long-term future.
Ryan Weisse: I'll take Kyren Williams and Jaylen Warren as my running backs next year. Williams is just 23 years old and seems to have a firm grip on the job, assuming Sean McVay returns. The Rams have cleared the path for him to start multiple times this year by trading Cam Akers and immediately cutting Darrell Henderson when Williams was healthy. Williams is a top-five fantasy back on a points-per-game basis and could be a steal in drafts next season.
While the top 48 feels high for Warren, of the players mentioned, he would rank second for me. He has proven himself more efficient than Najee Harris and more proficient in the passing game, adding to his fantasy value. We'll need to monitor who Pittsburgh hires as a new offensive coordinator, but Warren's pass-catching role should remain safe in 2024, making him worth a look as your RB2.
Sean Settle: The back most likely to be a top 48 pick next year will be Kyren Williams. The Rams showed so much faith in the young runner that they let go of Cam Akers and have cleared the way for him to be the lead back of the future. He can catch the ball out of the backfield and do special things in space. Williams also shows enough power at the goal line that he is unlikely to have touchdowns poached by a bigger back.
The Rams are an offense built to throw the ball, and Williams fits the scheme well from the backfield. Look for him to sneak his way into the first round with a strong finish of the season and to be the RB 1 for a lot of teams next year.
A lot of the same things can be said about Chubba Hubbard. There is not a lot going right in Carolina right now, but since he has taken the lead back duties he has excelled. Bryce Young was not given enough weapons and time to develop to be successful, but Hubbard has been around long enough to finally get healthy and get his chance.
Carolina is unlikely to move away from his low price tag and instead invest in a better line and upgrade the receivers to try and make this team competitive. Hubbard is in a good spot to move up draft boards going into next season if he can finish strong and Carolina makes the right moves in the offseason.
Dave Kluge: Ruminating over next year's running back values is difficult, as the offseason volatility can quickly change things. A deep free-agency class will assuredly flip the market on its head. But for the sake of discussion, we'll assume that situations next year are similar to this year. And assuming that, Kyren Williams deserves to be inside the top 48. Dare I say he likely belongs inside the top 20?
There were some concerns about his efficiency early in the season, but he's put those to rest. He has a stranglehold on passing-down and goal-line work, making him a precious asset in fantasy football.
Jaylen Warren would be my other favorite of the remaining three running backs. Despite sharing a backfield with a first-round pick in Najee Harris, he has been too great to ignore and has carved out a meaningful workload. The situation is oddly reminiscent of Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler on the Chargers, where Warren's ability in space adds a layer to the offense that the coaches nurture. Harris is a good running back, but Warren packs a big-play punch and will retain a steady workload.
Dan Hindery: Kyren Williams is the easy answer as the player most likely to be worth a Top 48 pick next season. He is doing all of the little things right for the Rams. He is also outproducing the other three players on this list by a massive amount. Williams is averaging 21.2 fantasy points per game (PPR). Each of the other three on the list is averaging fewer than 12 fantasy points per game.
While I do not see Hubbard being worth a Top 48 pick next season, he is the best of the rest. The Panthers' offense can't be much worse, and Hubbard has significantly outplayed Miles Sanders. Unfortunately, the Panthers guaranteed a significant chunk of Sanders' 2024 compensation, and he will likely remain on the roster next season.
Gary Davenport: There's only one back on this list I'd spend a top-48 pick on next year, and that's a guy no one was beating the drum for much of the summer—Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams. Williams is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, he's been an effective receiver out of the backfield, he's found the end zone 10 times, and best of all, there's no reason to think he won't be the unquestioned lead back in Los Angeles next season.
The first four rounds might be pushing it for Jaylen Warren of the Steelers, but he'd be my second choice among this quartet. Warren has been a more effective player than Najee Harris on a per-touch basis for some time now, and it appears the Steelers finally noticed. The problem is that Harris will probably still be around for at least one more year, which caps Warren's value.
Sam Wagman: Kyren Williams is the clearest answer here. He warned his doubters that they would be wrong about him after letting him slip to Day 3 of the NFL Draft, and it seems as though he was right. Williams runs with authority, catches passes with punishing YAC ability, and is an able runner who can make you miss if he needs to. Sean McVay is comfortable giving him the ball all to himself, and without any other clear answers, he should be the top dog in that backfield next season.
The other back I would draft in this range would be Chuba Hubbard. We haven't seen it all - due to his offensive line and the playcalling issues in Carolina this season - but Hubbard has sneakily looked solid as a runner and receiver.
Which two are least likely?
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