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Welcome to Week 14 of the 2023 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Skittish about December
- System or Player? The WR Edition
- Old or Prime? Aging Top Producers in 2024 Redraft Leagues (see below)
- For Real/Fool's Gold - RB Edition
Let's roll.
Old or Prime? Aging Top Producers in 2024 Redraft Leagues
Matt Waldman: From the list below, give me the player you're most likely to take with a top-24 pick in a redraft format and the player you're least likely to pick in the same range. PPR.
Let's begin with players we'd most likely take.
Dave Kluge: Assuming every player is on the same team and in a similar situation, Keenan Allen deserves to be considered a top-24 pick next year. He's shown no signs of slowing down this year, and the addition of Kellen Moore has boosted his target share to a career-high 32.2%. Pre-snap motions create mismatches to help him get open, and that usage is translating to the best per-game yardage of his season. Of course, the fear with an aging wide receiver is that the floor can fall out from under them, but Allen has yet to display any signs of decline.
Sean Settle: Davante Adams should stay squarely within the top 24. He is a top-five receiver with a revolving door at quarterback and all of the other issues plaguing the Raiders. Aiden O'Connell has shown enough to be given a shot next season to lead this team. Adams should keep his high target share and make plays all over the field. He should be among the top three with Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson on draft boards next season and should see little regression due to age.
Jordan McNamara: Travis Kelce is the most likely player to be taken in the top 24 picks out of a process of elimination. Allen has a huge cap hit and would need to restructure or take a pay cut to return to the Chargers in 2024. Additionally, the team could be with a new head coach and offensive coordinator.
Davante Adams also could be going through a coaching staff and quarterback change. This leaves Kelce as the default option. His production has slowed in recent weeks, but is still the TE1 and has the highest ceiling of any tight end in the league.
Gary Davenport: Keenan Allen admittedly isn't getting any younger—he'll be 32 when the 2024 regular season begins. But we've seen nothing to indicate that he's slowing down. Allen leads the league in targets and receptions, ranks third in receiving yards, and third in PPR points among wide receivers. The Chargers aren't going to spend big money on a wideout in free agency, and while Quentin Johnston should be better (he can't be much worse) he's no threat to Allen's status as the unquestioned lead receiver for the Bolts. There should be another season of targets galore coming from Justin Herbert, and that's worth a top-24 pick.
Sam Wagman: I'm still most likely to grab Kelce out of this list with a top-24 pick. Let's face it, although his production has been more tied to whether Taylor Swift is at the game this season, Kelce is still a top-two tight end by production (and TE1 in points per game) and a massive advantage to have weekly due to his consistency. The tight end position got a little deeper this year, but Kelce can still go off for 100 yards and multiple scores any given week, and that's rare.
Dan Hindery: If forced to pick one...
Waldman: Forced???? Of course, you're being forced. That's the restrictive nature of the question.
Hindery: I just want to make sure Footballguys subscribers know I wouldn't draft any of these guys in the first two rounds next year.
Waldman: [Clears throat...] ATTENTION ALL FOOTBALLGUYS SUBSCRIBERS AND NON-SUBSCRIBERS READING THE FREE PART OF THIS ROUNDTABLE: DAN HINDERY WANTS TO MAKE IT CRYSTAL CLEAR THAT HE WILL NOT BE DRAFTING ANY OF THESE OLD PLAYERS LISTED DURING THE FIRST TWO ROUNDS OF A REDRAFT LEAGUE IN 20204! PLEASE CARRY THIS THROUGH THE INTERWEBS SO HE DOESN'T HAVE HIS FANTASY ANALYST CARD REVOKED.
How's that?
Hindery: Hahahahaha! Pretty good, Matt. It's one of my strongest fantasy beliefs that drafters underestimate age-related risk factors. Most view aging vets as safe simply because of their past track record while mostly failing to account that betting on continued top production from a guy as old as Kelce is inherently risky.
Waldman: So you're saying I'm old and inherently risky?
Hindery: You're middle-aged and inherently riskier. You're also not a pro football player.
Waldman: To borrow from my old friend, Bob Harris, two of these statements are not lies. Who is your choice now that I've twisted your arm?
Hindery: Keenan Allen is my choice. He is less reliant on winning with pure athleticism and has the type of game that will age well. That being said...
Waldman: Yes, we know, you're not drafting any of these guys in the first two rounds next year.
Hindery: At least your short-term memory is still intact, Matt.
Waldman: Sometimes.
Let's Continue with Players We'd Least Likely Take
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