Welcome to Week 14 of the 2023 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Skittish about December
- System or Player? The WR Edition (see below)
- Old or Prime? Aging Top Producers in 2024 Redraft Leagues
- For Real/Fool's Gold - RB Edition
Let's roll.
System or Player? The WR Edition
Matt Waldman: All players are system-dependent to the extent of how teams maximize their volume and quality of targets. The better the offensive line, quarterback, ground game, and other receivers, the more likely we'll see fewer obstacles for target volume and/or target quality.
That said, which player's production MOST looks like a product of his system, and which looks LEAST like the product of his system? Essentially, I'm asking which player is most and least bulletproof for potential declines in fantasy production.
Let's begin with the system players.
Jordan McNamara: I like all the options, so this is a tough question to answer. I will go with DeVonta Smith because A.J. Brown is a dominant WR1, and when Dallas Goedert is healthy, the market share for Smtih can fluctuate in a way that is much less predictable. All five wide receivers are really good, but Smith is the most variant based on the offensive structure.
Waldman: I'd agree that the film matches the data here. St. Brown isn't a traditional No.1 receiver compared to archetypal options like Ja'Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and Justin Jefferson. Still, St. Brown can play multiple roles (slot and flanker) at a high level, making him a player less vulnerable to system changes than others.
Sam Wagman: It feels tiring, but Aiyuk probably qualifies the best for me as to who is the most system-dependent player. He plays in probably the smoothest offensive scheme in the league, maximizing his route running and ability to get open over the middle of the field. This isn't to say he isn't a great football player, because he is. But if he were to be taken out of Kyle Shanahan's system, given the many stop-and-starts he's had so far in his NFL career, his production could downtick.
Waldman: Fascinating. I would say that the demands Shanahan places on route running, knowledge of all three receiving spots, and the strict timing of the traditional West Coast passing game would lead to the idea that Aiyuk is one of the most bulletproof players on the list.
Ryan Weisse: I'm not sure Puka Nacua would have exploded in any system quite like he did with Sean McVay. From the moment he was drafted, the immediate narrative was that he was similar to Cooper Kupp and fit the Robert Woods role. He was tailor-made for McVay's system, and with Kupp injured, he stepped into an immediate high-volume role, an opportunity not afforded to many fifth-round picks. I love everything I've seen from Nacua and mean to take nothing away from him, but 2023 was a perfect storm for his success.
Gary Davenport: I suppose the easy answer for least bulletproof would be Puka Nacua, given the perfect storm he began his career with in Los Angeles, but for the sake of being at least slightly contrarian, I'll go with Nico Collins. It's not so much a matter of the scheme in Houston as the quarterback. C.J. Stroud has spent most of the 2023 season making the wideouts in Houston look like gangbusters. On another team, I don't know that Collins (talented though he may be) enjoys the same type of statistical success.
Sean Settle: DeVonta Smith. While he has a similar build and skill set to St. Brown, he is largely dependent on A.J. Brown on the other side. Smith draws the softer coverage almost every week and gets a free run with teams trying to stack the box and stop the running of Jalen Hurts. Smith is undersized compared to others on the list and would likely struggle if dropped in other situations across the league. Smith is almost a true boom-or-bust player who has a very high ceiling or extremely low floor.
Dan Hindery: I agree with Gary that Nico Collins is the player whose production most looks like the product of a system. In my dynasty trade value article earlier this week, I wrote about the idea of Normalized fantasy production. In other words, what would each player's stats look like if we assumed their offense was exactly league average?
In terms of wide receivers who are getting the most help from their offenses, Collins ranked near the top of the list. He would be scoring 2.7 fewer fantasy points per game if the Texans' passing attack was league average. Another way to think about this idea of the system versus individual player talent is to imagine how big the drop-off in production would be if the player missed. In Collins' case, we do not have to imagine. Collins missed Week 10. Noah Brown stepped into his spot in the lineup and caught seven passes for 172 yards.
Dave Kluge: Nico Collins has been a favorite of mine for years. But two years of intermittent fantasy success followed by a Year 3 breakout likely indicates that he is impacted by his situation. With Davis Mills, Tyrod Taylor, Kyle Allen, and Jeff Driskel under center, Collins struggled. And now, with C.J. Stroud, he is providing top-10 production. We also saw Collins cool off as Tank Dell came on later in the season. I'm a big fan of Nico Collins and am happy with his success this year, but I'd be surprised to see consistent WR1 seasons in the future.
Waldman: Gary, Dave, and Dan, I agree Collins is likely the least bulletproof. He's a good ball-winner but lacks top speed and benefits a lot from Bobby Slowik's scheme that features him on in-breaking routes against zone coverage.
Don't get me wrong, Collins could still help a lot of teams as a starter, but he's not running nearly as many comebacks, curls, and outs as the likes of prototypical No.1 receivers. That's not his game, and that's part of a receiver's game that makes the top receivers bulletproof.
Let's continue with the most bulletproof options.
McNamara: Amon-Ra St. Brown has proven that he is a high-level target earner in his career. He has been targeted 119 times on 403 routes, good for a 29.5% target rate. This is consistent with his 29% target rate last season. Entering the season, he had a 98th percentile performance in target rate among wide receivers with at least 200 career routes. He has the type of elite profile that is extremely trustworthy year after year.
Kluge: Brandon Aiyuk and DeVonta Smith are relatively bulletproof compared to the other players on this list. Both were talented first-round picks who immediately contributed to the NFL. Of course, they both benefit from good quarterback play, but they are competent enough to be productive regardless of their situation. Aiyuk is vying for targets on a team with Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle. It doesn't matter. DeVonta Smith is in the shadow of A.J. Brown on a run-first team. It doesn't matter. These players are in perceived “bad” situations, but their talent more than makes up for it.
Davenport: I have a hard time imagining a situation where Amon-Ra St. Brown doesn't thrive. He's an excellent route-runner, has fantastic hands, and thrives in the red zone. Mind you, most of the wide receivers on this list are pretty situation-proof, but if I have to single one out, St. Brown is the one that stands out. Approximately 31 NFL teams are kicking themselves for not drafting him earlier in 2021. The fourth round? Oops.
Weisse: Amon-Ra St. Brown would flourish on any team in the league. He runs excellent routes, catches everything thrown his way, and excels in the red zone. He's also done all of that for three straight years and is improving every year. In 2023, he is one of only four receivers with 100 targets and a 70% catch rate. He reminds me of Keenan Allen, which is about the highest compliment I can pay a wide receiver. St. Brown would be effective and a fantasy darling regardless of the system or the quarterback.
Settle: The biggest name that should be more or less matchup-proof and not riding on the success of other players is Amon-Ra St. Brown. He lines up all over the field, is the true No.1 receiver in that offense, and is already excelling with Jared Goff throwing him the ball. Goff has done a great job protecting the ball this season but is the epitome of a game manager who can make a few special plays when needed. St. Brown could be even better with a better quarterback and is already a top 8 WR in the league. His ability to stretch the field and make plays across the middle is elite, and you could likely drop him into any offense and see similar results.
Hindery: DeVonta Smith is the least reliant upon the system or his team situation. The Eagles' pass offense is just barely above league average. Smith also must compete for targets with one of the league's top wide receiver talents (A.J. Brown), which may be holding Smith's production back. Smith is only seeing 7.3 targets per game this season. He has had more than eight targets in just 33% of his games. I view Smith as a top talent who is neither being held back nor particularly aided by his current situation.
Wagman: As far as who is less a product of their system, I have the utmost confidence in DeVonta Smith's skillset as a wide receiver. He was incredibly polished coming into the league and is probably the best receiver from a technical standpoint that Alabama has pushed out this decade not named Julio Jones.
The way he moves on the field uses his body to get open despite his lack of critical size, and his do-it-all ability all speak to how natural of a receiver he is, and I have no doubt he'd be the WR1 for a lot of teams in the NFL.
Waldman: As good as Smith is, I agree with Jordan on Smith being one of the least bulletproof on the list. Smith struggled against physical coverage at the boundary against top corners and benefited from A.J. Brown's presence to limit how often Smith had to face the shutdown option of the defense in these situations. I see him as a good starter who needs a true No.1 like Brown to help him reach his ceiling of production potential.
The data may not give a clear indication that Brown helps Smith, but actual football illustrates how the top receiver is the priority for the defense in several ways.
Brown draws the best cornerbacks, and his game often demands teams to have that defender follow him or the zone coverages react quicker to Brown's side of the field when Brown and Smith aren't aligned together. This is why Chase Claypool thrived early for the Steelers and among the reasons it fell apart for him once opponents made him the higher priority for their game plans.
Thanks for reading. If you'd like to see the rest of the topics, once again, you can find them here:
- Skittish about December
- Old or Prime? Aging Top Producers in 2024 Redraft Leagues
- For Real/Fool's Gold - RB Edition
Good luck this week!
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