Roundtable Week 15: Too Young or Prime? Emerging Top Producers

Photo: Brett Davis, USA Today Sports

Welcome to Week 15 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Skittish about December - Part II
• Too Young or Prime? Emerging Top Producers in 2024 Redraft Leagues (See below)
• For Real/Fool's Gold - QB Edition
• System or Player? The RB Edition

Let's roll.

Too Young or Prime? Emerging Top Producers in 2024 Redraft Leagues

Matt Waldman: From the list below, give me the player you're most likely to take with a top-24 pick in a redraft format and the player you're least likely to pick in the same range. PPR.

• Breece Hall
• Bijan Robinson
• Puka Nacua
• Brandon Aiyuk

Let's begin with players we'd most likely take.

Corey Spala: Breece Hall is the player I am most likely to take in the first round. I wanted to say, Bijan Robinson, I just am working under the assumption Arthur Smith will be the head coach in 2024.

For Hall, we know his coaching staff will consistently utilize him. A major caveat with this question is the emphasis on PPR scoring. Hall is averaging four receptions per game and is averaging 5.9 receptions following Week 6, when the New York Jets increased his snap share above 50% following his ACL recovery. Will this remain true in 2024 with Aaron Rodgers back under center?

I am willing to bet on Hall’s talent as one of the best running backs in the game when paired with coaching tendencies. Hall will likely be 100% healthy for the 2024 season, and we should see a return to his assumed usage and fantasy production.

Jason Wood: Bijan Robinson is the easy pick for most likely; he'll be a first-round pick in 95%+ of drafts next year, barring injury. Many draft pundits viewed Robinson as the surest thing for stardom at the position in years, and he ended up on the Falcons with the same play-caller (Arthur Smith) who made his mark as an OC by running Derrick Henry 1,000 times per season. Robinson has no weaknesses, and you get the sense that the Falcons will at least attempt an upgrade at quarterback in 2024. Even the threat of a league-average passing attack would make Robinson an unstoppable force.

Craig Lakins: If we were drafting a 2024 fantasy team today, I'd take a shot at Bijan Robinson ahead of the others mentioned here. The only reason he isn't a slam dunk to be a first-round pick is the way Arthur Smith used him for the first half of the season. Perhaps due to internal pressure, Smith finally made Robinson the feature-back after a Week 9 loss to the Vikings.

Since Week 10, he's 5th among running backs in average points per game. Questions about his utilization will likely remain throughout the offseason, but one thing that's not in question is his talent. With his elite vision, footwork, and ability to contribute in the passing game, his fantasy ceiling will be high whenever he takes the field.

Phil Alexander: Breece Hall will be one of my favorite top-12 picks in redraft leagues next year. Hall has proven he is still an elite breakaway threat and pass-catcher out of the backfield. Now that we don't have to worry about his recovery from a torn ACL, his upside is undeniable. Hall will presumably continue as the lead back in a much-improved Jets offense led by Aaron Rodgers.

The quality of New York's offensive line can only go up during free agency and the NFL Draft. And we should no longer have to watch Hall come off the field for Dalvin Cook, who performed woefully on an expensive one-year deal. It's understandable if you want to play it safer than Hall with your most important pick, but overall-RB1 is within his range of possible outcomes. Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Jonathan Taylor are the only running backs I would consider ahead of Hall if we were drafting today.

Will Grant: You could make a case for each of these players to be taken at the end of Round 1 next season. I think Robinson is the one I'd most likely take.

The number of top-shelf running backs is small, and if you're going to spend a 1st round pick on a player, you want someone who is going to outperform other players at that position. As a rookie, Robinson is already a top-10 fantasy running back, and by next season, he could easily be in the top five. Robinson also contributes as a receiver, so his floor will be very high when it comes to fantasy production next season.

Let's Continue with Players We'd Least Likely Take