Welcome to Week 15 of the 2023 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Overrated/Underrated 2024 NFL Draft Prospects (see below)
- System or Player? The QB Edition
- The Leave-Add-Start Game
- For Real/Fool's Gold - TE Playoff Edition
Let's roll.
Overrated 2024 NFL Draft Prospects
Matt Waldman: Here is a nice list of prospects who could have a meaningful fantasy impact in 2024.
- Caleb Williams
- Drake Maye
- Michael Penix Jr.
- Jayden Daniels
- Trey Benson
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Malik Nabers
- Rome Udunze
- Keon Coleman
- Brock Bowers
- Blake Corum
- Marshawn Lloyd
- Braelon Allen
- Audric Estime
Pick one from this list you believe is overrated based on his current media buzz.
Christian Williams: Michael Penix Jr. is the most overrated player on this list, not because of talent but because of injury and age concerns that could limit draft capital upside. Penix is a great deep ball thrower operating a well-designed offense, but the injuries he's experienced show up on film (his movement skills are much worse now than when he was a freshman). He's also an older prospect. Penix looks like a second-round pick, at best, giving him a lot less value than some are speculating.
Jeff Bell: Braelon Allen emerged as a true freshman with 1,268 yards. Then, he proceeded not to get much better. Allen never played Penn State or Michigan and posted 215 yards across two games against Ohio State, 75 of which came on a touchdown run down 52-14. Metrics are going to love him; he has size and production. Many will point to increased passing game production, but that was nominal short usage; the team needed to allow him to show the ability to track the ball down the field. I have seen him as RB1 for several people, but he is not there for me.
Daniel Harms: I agree with Jeff. Braelon Allen has been getting talked up for years since he was a freshman. Allen saw his production dip dramatically in his last season at Wisconsin due to a new offensive system implemented by Luke Fickell. Allen is more of a throwback runner who does his best work downhill and in a straight line. His lateral agility could be better, pass protection is a problem, and he struggles to catch the football. He will need to find the perfect fit to be fantasy-relevant.
Zareh Kantzabedian: Marshawn Lloyd is an elusive back with an efficient 2023 season at USC. However, we have not seen a season where he's received many rush attempts or receptions. At 5-foot-9 and 215 pounds, Lloyd has the size to carry a full workload. But being a high-volume running back is a learned skill. It's fine to expect quality production out of Lloyd in the NFL, but we've seen running backs with similar collegiate touch profiles have turbulent NFL careers. Dameon Pierce is the most recent.
Matt Montgomery: Caleb Williams. This may seem like a cheap clickbait pop for views, but we need to settle down on the generational Caleb Williams talk. Yes, he plays a style of football not comparable to many players, but he is also playing with arguably the best offensive coach in the sport who is not in the NFL. The likelihood that Williams goes to the NFL and gets a coaching upgrade is low, not to mention the rookie highs and lows he will experience, which don't bode well for an immediate impact like that of a C.J. Stroud. 2024 will be too early to truly encapsulate what he can be as a pro.