Welcome to Week 16 of the 2023 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Overrated/Underrated 2024 NFL Draft Prospects
- System or Player? The QB Edition
- The Leave-Add-Start Game
- For Real/Fool's Gold - TE Playoff Edition (see below)
Let's roll.
FOR REAL/FOOL'S GOLD - TE EDITION
Matt Waldman: These options have been top-12 producers for the past month at their position.
- Gerald Everett (TE10)
- Tucker Kraft (TE8)
- Hunter Henry (TE9)
- Isaiah Likely (TE7)
Which one will help you the most this week and next?
Ryan Weisse: Hunter Henry has the best Week 16 matchup imaginable, and Week 17 only matters if you win this week. He has scored 38 fantasy points over the last two weeks and gets a Denver team that allows the most points to fantasy tight ends. Just two weeks removed from a two-touchdown performance, Henry could easily find the endzone twice again in Week 16. He takes a small step back in Week 17 against Buffalo, but the Bills have allowed double-digit tight ends scores in each of their last two matchups.
Christian Williams: Tucker Kraft will help you the most this week and next. The Panthers' defense has excelled against quarterbacks, but the Packers have been intentional about getting Kraft the football in critical situations (goal-to-go, third-and-need-it). His role looks more expansive by the week, and I expect that will continue through the fantasy playoffs.
Jeff Bell: Isaiah Likely has stepped into Mark Andrews’s role and hardly missed a step production-wise. His improvisation has played very well as a complement to Lamar Jackson. Baltimore has an important matchup against a San Francisco defense that Trey McBride just exploited, then faces Miami in a potential shootout game script in Week 17. He is the best combination of talent, supporting offense, and schedule matchups out of the group.
Daniel Harms: Isaiah Likely has not only stepped into the Mark Andrews role but has also become one of the most trusted receivers in Baltimore. He’s seen six or more targets in the last three weeks, and they move him around based on the matchup.
Last week against the Jaguars, he lined up more in line to get matched up on linebackers. Trey McBride just picked apart the 49ers from the slot, and that’s where Likely will take most of his snaps this week. Each of the next two weeks figures to be shoot-out-type games, and the Ravens will need to continue to feed Likely, who has become a matchup problem.
Zareh Kantzabedian: Sticking with Isaiah Likely would be the most beneficial decision for the remainder of the fantasy playoffs. The tight end position is fickle when it comes to fantasy. Still, Likely has averaged a 20 percent target share since taking over for Mark Andrews and has accounted for 40 percent of Lamar Jackson's touchdown throws. Trey McBride posted 102 yards on 10 targets against San Francisco in Week 15. Likely is being utilized similarly to the way McBride was in Week 15. I expect solid numbers for Likely in Week 16.
Joey Wright: All four tight ends mentioned here do not have easy roads to delivering dependable fantasy production. During the next two weeks, Gerald Everett and Hunter Henry have tough matchups against the red-hot Buffalo Bills.
However, if you have the means to carry two tight ends, Gerald Everett and Hunter Henry draw a matchup with the Denver Broncos. This season, the Broncos have allowed more fantasy points to the tight end than any other team. Everett and Henry both have a little steam behind them as well.
Henry has been the TE4 over the past four weeks, thanks in part to his rapport with quarterback Bailey Zappe. Everett is fifth in targets over the past four weeks and should see the usage continue, with the Chargers' receiving options dwindling by the week. If you can mix and match the next two weeks, you may have found a sneaky cheat code for your fantasy championship.
Matt Montgomery: Isaiah Likely. We have a proven sample of what this offense likes to do. There is heavy production from the tight end position, and with the injury to Mark Andrews, we are seeing Likely emerge as a threat every time he has the ball. In standard PPR formats, he is averaging 15 points per game. If you're getting this type of tight-end production, it is a huge advantage over your opponents here in these money weeks!
Dave Kluge: Isaiah Likely will help you the most down the stretch. Over the last three weeks, with no Mark Andrews, he has averaged 6.3 targets, 4.7 receptions, 64.3 receiving yards, and 15.1 points per game. That bests Mark Andrews’ output across the board. He’s been providing elite TE1 production, given his new opportunity. While the other tight ends in this group are on respective hot streaks, Likely’s appears the most sustainable.