Bijan Robinson: The Total Football Capstone

Photo: Scott Wachter, USA Today Sports

Many are familiar with the David Montgomery “Running Back Frankenstein” meme.

David Montgomery...AKA “Frankenstein”...AKA the greatest RB we’ve ever seen.

Comps like this are...Cool... #DynastyFootball #NFL #FFD260 pic.twitter.com/S7gD6GJCoH

— Aaron Schill (@aaron_schill) January 7, 2019

A true lesson in aggressive hyperbole.

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We know now David Montgomery was not Running Back Frankenstein. But Bijan Robinson?

Robinson showed his ability in one play against Alabama. Robinson quickly beat linebacker Dallas Turner on a wheel route up the right side. The ball was behind Robinson, who executed a leaping 360 at the 38-yard line. Robinson landed on his feet and immediately transitioned into a run after the catch opportunity, adding 16 yards to end the play. A phenomenal play for any wide receiver, Robinson executed it as 215 lbs running back.

The Atlanta Falcons and fantasy football players are counting on that just being a sample of the whole package. The team needs Robinson to contribute immediately, but what are reasonable expectations for this type of player?

Rookie Running Back Production

Rookie running back production for fantasy is no longer a mystery. I dove into the topic last year with a Breece Hall Spotlight. But running backs hit quickly; a combination of opportunity and natural ability allow for immediate impact.

Robinson is no ordinary running back. Robinson is just the sixth back to land inside the top ten since 2013. How have those backs produced?

Backs have averaged double-digit touchdowns, over 1,500 scrimmage yards, and gone five for five with RB1 seasons. Surprisingly, for one of the few times in his career, Christian McCaffrey brought the group's average down. Without his 14.3 points per game, the group average raises to 19.7, a number that would have finished as the overall RB3 in 2022.

Ultimately it takes a special player to land that kind of draft capital. And a special situation where a team has identified a clear need. The Falcons were one of the most productive rushing teams in the NFL. But they needed to raise their ceiling and boldly chose to do so. Robinson could be the final move in an even bigger offensive picture.

Arthur Smith's Total Football

Late one night, Ted Lasso imbibed in some spirits. A journey through Amsterdam led him to an American theme pub. While watching a replay of Michael Jordan and the 1990s Chicago Bulls executing Phil Jackson's triangle offense. Inspired, Lasso went about reinventing a concept called "Total Football." The theory is rooted in players playing interchangeable roles and eliminating positions, keeping opponents guessing, and working to create mismatches.

Arthur Smith may have inspired it. Maybe Smith drew inspiration from the triangle offense in basketball or the Dutch "Total Football" concept. Or there is no relation, and I am just using the analogy to explain the Falcons' offense at a base level.

The Falcon's intentions are clear. They are going to run it down your throat. The team's 559 rushing attempts were the tenth-highest team total since 1990. Defenses knew what was coming, yet they struggled to stop it as the Falcon's 4.9 yards per attempt were the second most efficient of the group. Amazingly, the Bears finished just behind at 558 attempts with a highly efficient 5.4 YPA.