Jacksonville, Team Vibes and Players to Target and Avoid

As we race toward August, Footballguys.com will look at one team per day with our quick-hitting Team Vibes and Players to Target and Avoid, where we check out the overall mood of each team's offense and let you know the players we are in on (because they are great values at the cost it takes to acquire them) and who we're out on (because they are too expensive and won't give you a good return on that investment).

Go Deeper: See in-depth projections for every Jaguars player here >>>

This is a daily series that will stretch through July 31. If you like this and want another, come back tomorrow. Another will be here. And all 32 of them will be free to Insiders. To become an Insider, simply sign up with a free account.

And here are all of the Team Vibes and Players to Target and Avoid articles we've done so far:
Jacksonville | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | Miami | Minnesota | New England | New Orleans | NY Giants | NY Jets | Philadelphia | Pittsburgh | San Francisco | Seattle | Tampa Bay | Tennessee | Washington

Quick Hits

Want a brief overview? Here it is:

• General Vibes - Good
• We're In On at Cost - Christian Kirk
• We're Out On at Cost - Calvin Ridley

Want a longer breakdown of how it's going in Jacksonville? Read on.

Jaguars, Team Vibes

• Good - 11
• Neutral - 1
• Bad - 0

Staffers with Good Vibes

• Andy Hicks: The Jaguars have depth across the board and a rapidly ascending quarterback. In a weak division, they should have a window this season.
• Ben Cummins: Trevor Lawrence took a massive leap last season and will improve again in 2023.
• Dave Kluge: Trevor Lawrence showed flashes of greatness last year and will hope to improve his consistency in Year 3.
• Jeff Tefertiller: Lawrence has turned the corner, but the team is still a few steps behind the top of the AFC.
• Jeff Bell: Adding firepower and key pieces maturing into roles, this offense is up and coming fast.
• Daniel Harms: Year two of Pederson’s offense, and Lawrence looking to ascend as a QB.
• Jeff Haseley: The Jaguars are starting to peak at the right time with weapons all over the field. It would be a surprise if they don't build off last year's division-winning season.
• Phil Alexander: All the key pieces of their top-10 scoring offense return, and they have added talent and depth to the wide receiver and running back rooms.
• Chad Parsons: Trevor Lawrence, with a functional and legitimate coaching staff, will push for the playoffs annually.
• Ryan Weisse: There was already great growth in Year 1 with Doug Pederson, and they get new weapons in Year 2.
• Craig Lakins: Quarterback Trevor Lawrence took a big step forward in 2022. I'd expect that to continue in his second season under Doug Pederson.

Staffers with Neutral Vibes

• Jason Wood: The turnaround last season was remarkable, but this isn’t a team yet at the level of the true Super Bowl contenders.

Staffers with Bad Vibes

• None.

Players We Are Targeting

• Christian Kirk - 6
• Trevor Lawrence - 3
• Tank Bigsby - 1
• Calvin Ridley - 1
• Zay Jones - 1

Reasons to be In on Christian Kirk

• Jason Wood: The doubters were wrong last year, and they’ll be wrong again in 2023.
• Ben Cummins: Christian Kirk’s role doesn’t project to change much at all. He’s a solid value.
• Dave Kluge: He became Lawrence's security blanket through 2022 and will play a similar role in 2023.
• Daniel Harms: Everyone wants Calvin Ridley, but Kirk is going to be heavily involved in this offense.
• Phil Alexander: It is incumbent on Calvin Ridley to siphon targets away from Kirk, not the other way around, despite what the ADP suggests.
• Ryan Weisse: He is remarkably cheap in drafts for being a top-12 receiver a year ago. I don't think Ridley hurts him much.

Reasons to be In on Trevor Lawrence

• Andy Hicks: The team is building strength at every position; Lawrence needs to be the best. Not the finished product, but we will see him move into the elite this year.
• Jeff Tefertiller: Lawrence played very well last year and is excelling under the new coaching staff.
• Jeff Bell: Carries the same upside as many of the elite QB options with a much lower ADP in one-quarterback leagues. He has been sliding on boards if you miss the elite tier of quarterbacks.

Reasons to be In on Tank Bigsby

• Chad Parsons: Day 2 pedigree and a starting-level profile point to a strong ceiling should Travis Etienne miss time.

Reasons to be In on Calvin Ridley

• Jeff Haseley: I have a feeling that Ridley is going to be a big-time producer for the Jaguars. He is healthy, driven, and in the driver's seat in the Jaguars receiving corps.

Reasons to be In on Zay Jones

• Craig Lakins: Currently going in the late 12th round, Jones is coming off of an 82-catch season. I don't think the arrival of Calvin Ridley shoves him to the side completely.

Players We Are Avoiding

• Calvin Ridley - 6
• Travis Etienne Jr. - 3
• Evan Engram - 1
• Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley - 1
• All of the Receivers - 1

Reasons to be Out on Calvin Ridley

• Jason Wood: One elite season many years ago, with injuries, substance abuse, and gambling concerns since.
• Ben Cummins: Calvin Ridley is being drafted a bit too aggressively for my liking.
• Dave Kluge: Two years removed from football, 29 years old, on a new team, and with stiff target competition. The downside is not baked into his cost.
• Phil Alexander: Confusing ADP for a player we haven't seen in nearly two full seasons.
• Chad Parsons: Significant time away and older than most would guess; Ridley has strong competition for targets in Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, both off career years.
• Craig Lakins: Ridley is a great talent, but it's hard for me to spend a 4th round pick on someone that hasn't played football in almost two years.

Reasons to be Out on Travis Etienne Jr.

• Jeff Bell: Doug Pederson has repeatedly said this will be a committee backfield, yet Etienne often holds an ADP above where he finished as the sole back for much of 2022.
• Daniel Harms: Poor goal-line back and the Jags don’t target their running backs enough for him to pay off.
• Jeff Haseley: The addition of Tank Bigsby will slow down the usage and volume for Etienne. A committee backfield is a commonality for Doug Pederson.

Reasons to be Out on Evan Engram

• Ryan Weisse: He scored 48% of his total fantasy points from Weeks 13-16. He was outside the top-15 in Weeks 1-12. Great ceiling but a terrible floor.

Reasons to be Out on Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley

• Andy Hicks: Getting two Jaguar receivers in the fantasy top 20 is possible, but the ball will be spread around. These two are at the absolute top of their upside.

Reasons to be Out on All of the Receivers

• Jeff Tefertiller: With Calvin Ridley's arrival, his targets will come from Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, leading all three to underperform fantasy expectations.