NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Theory
Vegas has seen the Bills struggle mightily of late – against worse teams than these Buccaneers – but still likes them to win handily at home. In other words, tonight, we target Bills... unless we don't. Plenty of Buccaneers' value is available, both as filler in a Bills-heavy lineup and on its own in a fight-the-current attack.
Injury Roundup
The biggest news of the night will be that of Baker Mayfield's (knee) status. Mayfield hasn't missed a snap all year, and he did return to limited practice this week, but the short turn time could keep coach Todd Bowles from pressing the issue. If Kyle Trask is forced to start, every Buccaneer pass-catcher takes a notable downgrade.
The Bills will again be thin at tight end, with Dawson Knox (wrist surgery) shelved and No. 3 Quintin Morris (ankle) absent from practice. Rookie Dalton Kincaid looks set for a high-usage encore.
Captain Consideration
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