The Top 10 from Week 15

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3. Jayden Reed Pre-Draft Scouting Report

Jayden Reed is (and should have been) a #Packer.

One of my favorite WRs in this class. A Stefon Diggs starter package who may not play all three positions, but has the potential to develop that way.

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) April 29, 2023

I gave Reed an Immediate Starter grade (85.5) in my Rookie Scouting Portfolio evaluation process and compared his style and talent along the spectrum of Stefon Diggs as the long-term aspiration, Laveranues Coles as the closest current comp, and K.J. Hamler if the bottom fell out of Reed's game.

Here's my elevator pitch on Reed from the 2023 RSP:

Reed is a difficult boom-bust evaluation, if you define the boom as elite and the bust as valued contributor. From the standpoint of becoming a professional football player, Reed isn’t a boom-bust prospect.

However, if you’re trying to ascertain how good Reed can be the swing between a top-12 producer and receiver who rarely delivers season-long production inside the top 36 receivers is big. This quandary underscores how small the margin is between good and great.

It comes down to this with Reed: If his hands position at the catch point were a little sharper and his release and route game a little more refined against top-tier cornerback prospects, he’d be the top receiver on my board.

Fact is, Reed's pass-catching techniques can remain as they are and he could still deliver as a quality NFL starter. At the same time, a few mishandled targets early in his career could alter his confidence and his team’s and change the perception of his future value.

If he holds up well against top cornerbacks at the catch-point and as a route runner, a few lapses with hands positions won’t be a major concern. If he doesn’t and he doesn’t refine these two areas to razor-sharp precision, he could wind up a bigger version of K.J. Hamler—a compelling athlete with a contributor status off the bench.

If he shuts the doors on these concerns—and his film shows he’s more than capable of doing so—he could earn legitimate comparisons to Stefon Diggs.

Reed consistently wins tight-window targets thanks to his positioning at the catch point. He knows how earn position late in the target’s trajectory and protect the ball when possible. He can take contact and maintain possession—even when making adjustments high, low, or well away from his frame.

The biggest issue with Reed’s pass-catching is that his hands can be too wide of the other and the ball slips through. He’s not a clap-attack receiver as much as he fails to get his hands completely together with targets where he’s making adjustments to earn position.

If ticking off the list of things Reed can do as a route runner, the sum of the parts would place him in the highest tier of the RSP’s evaluation. However, he has to prove he can win more often against physical and savvy cornerbacks during his releases and stems.

Reed also has to do a more to setup defenders on vertical routes in the same way he can with shorter stems. And, his intermediate breaks need more snap when turning inside or outside—especially against defenders capable of tight coverage. If Reed can improve in these areas, he could play all three receiver positions in the NFL.

Reed excels after the catch. He’s a skilled return specialist with kickoffs and punts and his eye for rushing lanes translates well to the receiving game.

Reed is patient with blocks, he anticipates lanes that open with or without blocks, and he’s a mature creator when in tight quarters with unblocked defenders surrounding him. He’ll take what’s given to him downhill, but he knows when to incorporate his toolbox of moves to generate lanes that didn’t appear to exist.

A tenacious blocker when he earns good position early, Reed can get better in this arena when he continues to refine his strikes. He’s an asset with or without the ball and at various spots on the field as a receiver, a runner, and a return specialist.

The difference between good and great is a big swing in terms of production and that’s where Reed’s NFL potential is teetering. I’d be willing to make the investment if his off-field and injury history (beyond what the public knows) checks out.

I'm still not convinced Reed will become an elite fantasy producer. I am convinced he'll remain a good fantasy starter with multiple paths to earning points in a young and promising offense.

If you've been keeping score this past month, I listed Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft as potential role-player saviors for the fantasy playoffs. Both delivered this weekend as leading components of the Packers' passing game. They overshadowed Romeo Doubs in the process, but not Reed.

The reason: Reed's ability to play inside and outside and his potential to touch the ball as a runner. Reed may not be the top candidate in any given week to lead the Packers' passing game, but he has proven that he's the most consistent scorer. He has only led Green Bay's receivers in the box score in 30 percent of this year's games, but he has delivered at least 8 PPR fantasy points in 60 percent of contests, which, at worst, has made him a viable starter in 4-receiver lineups.

Since Week 7, Reed has been PPR WR10. The only rookie who has been better has been Rashee Rice by 0.6 points. A big boost to his value has been his work as a runner, topping all receivers with 121 rushing yards, and his 2 scores on the ground are second to Deebo Samuel's 4. Reed's 12.1 yards per rush on 10 touches (the second-highest total among receivers) is also tops in the league.

I'm in six fantasy leagues. All six squads are in the playoffs. Reed is on half of them — all dynasty or keeper squads.

He has been a reliable starter and a timely sub on receiver depth charts that include Keenan Allen, Puka Nacua, Adam Thielen, Michael Thomas, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, and Chris Godwin. Most of these leagues allow me to start four receivers.

Reed is on two of my three wildcard squads and a big reason I'm looking good to win both those contests.

While I get occasional trolling about my evaluation of Hakeem Butler five years ago, it's worth noting that I've learned a thing for two since then despite it worth mentioning that even before those lessons, I was on top of a lot of players outside the consensus — Cooper Kupp, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Michael Thomas among them.

Still, it's not just about the wins vs losses on players working out. The most important thing is learning the game and how to best apply that knowledge as a scout.

So I studied the work of a wide receiver coach who tutors pro players past and present like Julian Edelman, Wicks, and Olamide Zaccheaus among others. I revised my criteria for studying the position and developed a far greater technical understanding of the position while taking years of data and reprioritizing how I value specific skills, traits, and concepts.

Since Butler? I've touted A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Chris Olave as immediate strong fits when the consensus saw otherwise. I didn't retreat dramatically on Ja'Marr Chase's preseason drops and touted him and Jaylen Waddle as the two most immediately impactful rookies. I never stopped sharing the love on CeeDee Lamb.

I also explained why Chase Claypool's temporary production would be short-lived, why Quentin Johnston needs more work to match his draft capital, why Waddle was a better immediate option than DeVonta Smith, and why Drake London's speed wasn't an issue but Treylon Burks' speed wasn't going to immediately erase his technical gaffes.

I still have misses. I'm still going to have misses. However, I'm still a student of the game and dedicated to continuous improvement with a transparent evaluation process. It's why I'm 19 years strong in this industry as an independent scout, and trust me, if it were just a labor of love, I'd be out of this profession a decade ago.

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