One of the main themes of the 2023 NFL Draft is that outliers are abundant. While many projected top picks lack the requisite size, there are a variety of other thresholds that players fail to meet this cycle.
Over the last two weeks, I've analyzed the running back and quarterback positions, finding an archetype for a top-12 finisher and highlighting what thresholds matter most. The evolution of running backs and quarterbacks was clear. Wide receivers have experienced less change, which offers an even more straightforward archetype for top-12 finishers.
The Sample
With the running back and quarterback positions, a usage shift dictated the sample. The evolution of the NFL game hasn't drastically altered how teams utilize their wide receivers. Therefore, the selection here includes the top-12 finishers from 2018-2022.
The Archetype
Over the last five years, the average top-12 wide receiver looks like this:
Average Demographics
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | DRAFT CAPITAL | RAS | AGE | EXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6'0 | 204.78 | 2.98 | 7.79 | 25.52 | 5.52 |
- Draft Capital refers to the pick the player was selected in his NFL Draft.
- RAS refers to relative athletic score, a metric that takes a player's NFL Scouting Combine measurables and condenses them into a singular number.
Average Statistics
| RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | TGT | REC | RECYD | Y/REC | RECTD | FP/G | FANTPT | TGT/G | REC/G | RECYD/G | RECTD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.28 | 25.12 | 0.28 | 141.98 | 95.45 | 1261.87 | 13.42 | 8.93 | 18.70 | 279.95 | 9.50 | 6.39 | 84.11 | 0.60 |
Main Takeaways
- Over the last five years, the average height of a top-12 receiver is 6'0, and just two receivers (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle) failed to meet that mark in 2022.
- Just four 2022 receivers met the 204.78-pound average, indicating a downward trend in wide receiver size.
- Five 2022 receivers finished in the top-12 while earning fewer than the average of nearly 142 targets.
- Per-game metrics of 6.39 receptions on 9.50 targets for 84.11 yards and 0.6 touchdowns were more correlative to top-12 finishes than raw totals.
The 2022 Top 12 WRs
The top 12 wide receivers in fantasy points per game in 2022 looked like this:
Cooper Kupp Demographics and Statistics
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | DRAFT CAPITAL | RAS | AGE | EXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6'2 | 194 | 3 | 5.32 | 29 | 6 |
| RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | TGT | REC | RECYD | Y/REC | RECTD | FP/G | FANTPT | TGT/G | REC/G | RECYD/G | RECTD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 52 | 1 | 98 | 75 | 812 | 10.8 | 6 | 22.6 | 203.4 | 10.89 | 8.33 | 90.22 | 0.67 |
Justin Jefferson Demographics and Statistics
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | DRAFT CAPITAL | RAS | AGE | EXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6'1 | 203 | 1 | 9.68 | 23 | 3 |
| RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | TGT | REC | RECYD | Y/REC | RECTD | FP/G | FANTPT | TGT/G | REC/G | RECYD/G | RECTD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 24 | 1 | 184 | 128 | 1809 | 14.1 | 8 | 21.6 | 366.7 | 10.82 | 7.53 | 106.41 | 0.47 |
Ja'Marr Chase Demographics and Statistics
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | DRAFT CAPITAL | RAS | AGE | EXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6'0 | 201 | 1 | 9.82 | 22 | 2 |
| RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | TGT | REC | RECYD | Y/REC | RECTD | FP/G | FANTPT | TGT/G | REC/G | RECYD/G | RECTD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 8 | 0 | 134 | 87 | 1046 | 12 | 9 | 20.5 | 246.4 | 11.17 | 7.25 | 87.17 | 0.75 |
Tyreek Hill Demographics and Statistics
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | DRAFT CAPITAL | RAS | AGE | EXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5'10 | 191 | 5 | 9.44 | 28 | 7 |
| RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | TGT | REC | RECYD | Y/REC | RECTD | FP/G | FANTPT | TGT/G | REC/G | RECYD/G | RECTD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 32 | 2 | 170 | 119 | 1710 | 14.4 | 7 | 20.4 | 347.2 | 10.00 | 7.00 | 100.59 | 0.41 |
Davante Adams Demographics and Statistics
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | DRAFT CAPITAL | RAS | AGE | EXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6'1 | 216 | 2 | 7.23 | 30 | 9 |
| RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | TGT | REC | RECYD | Y/REC | RECTD | FP/G | FANTPT | TGT/G | REC/G | RECYD/G | RECTD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | -1 | 0 | 180 | 100 | 1516 | 15.2 | 14 | 19.7 | 335.5 | 10.59 | 5.88 | 89.18 | 0.82 |
Stefon Diggs Demographics and Statistics
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | DRAFT CAPITAL | RAS | AGE | EXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6'0 | 194 | 5 | 6.37 | 29 | 8 |
| RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | TGT | REC | RECYD | Y/REC | RECTD | FP/G | FANTPT | TGT/G | REC/G | RECYD/G | RECTD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -3 | 0 | 156 | 110 | 1455 | 13.2 | 11 | 18.9 | 321.2 | 9.18 | 6.47 | 85.59 | 0.65 |
A.J. Brown Demographics and Statistics
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | DRAFT CAPITAL | RAS | AGE | EXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6'1 | 227 | 2 | 8.75 | 25 | 4 |
| RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | TGT | REC | RECYD | Y/REC | RECTD | FP/G | FANTPT | TGT/G | REC/G | RECYD/G | RECTD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 88 | 1496 | 17 | 11 | 17.9 | 303.6 | 8.59 | 5.18 | 88.00 | 0.65 |
CeeDee Lamb Demographics and Statistics
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | DRAFT CAPITAL | RAS | AGE | EXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6'2 | 201 | 1 | 7.42 | 23 | 3 |
| RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | TGT | REC | RECYD | Y/REC | RECTD | FP/G | FANTPT | TGT/G | REC/G | RECYD/G | RECTD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 47 | 0 | 156 | 107 | 1359 | 12.7 | 9 | 17.7 | 301.6 | 9.18 | 6.29 | 79.94 | 0.53 |
DeAndre Hopkins Demographics and Statistics
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | DRAFT CAPITAL | RAS | AGE | EXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6'1 | 212 | 1 | 5.41 | 30 | 10 |
| RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | TGT | REC | RECYD | Y/REC | RECTD | FP/G | FANTPT | TGT/G | REC/G | RECYD/G | RECTD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 96 | 64 | 717 | 11.2 | 3 | 17.1 | 153.7 | 10.67 | 7.11 | 79.67 | 0.33 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown Demographics and Statistics
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | DRAFT CAPITAL | RAS | AGE | EXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6'0 | 203 | 4 | 7.3 | 23 | 2 |
| RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | TGT | REC | RECYD | Y/REC | RECTD | FP/G | FANTPT | TGT/G | REC/G | RECYD/G | RECTD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 95 | 0 | 146 | 106 | 1161 | 11 | 6 | 16.7 | 267.6 | 9.13 | 6.63 | 72.56 | 0.38 |
Keenan Allen Demographics and Statistics
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | DRAFT CAPITAL | RAS | AGE | EXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6'2 | 211 | 3 | - | 30 | 10 |
| RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | TGT | REC | RECYD | Y/REC | RECTD | FP/G | FANTPT | TGT/G | REC/G | RECYD/G | RECTD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 0 | 89 | 66 | 752 | 11.4 | 4 | 16.6 | 166 | 8.90 | 6.60 | 75.20 | 0.40 |
Jaylen Waddle Demographics and Statistics
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | DRAFT CAPITAL | RAS | AGE | EXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5'10 | 183 | 1 | - | 24 | 2 |
| RSH | RSHYD | RSHTD | TGT | REC | RECYD | Y/REC | RECTD | FP/G | FANTPT | TGT/G | REC/G | RECYD/G | RECTD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 26 | 0 | 117 | 75 | 1356 | 18.1 | 8 | 15.4 | 261.2 | 6.88 | 4.41 | 79.76 | 0.47 |
The Potential Risers
Michael Pittman, Indianapolis
Pittman averaged 8.3 targets and 6.2 receptions per game in 2022, and his 99 receptions eclipsed the threshold of a top-12 archetype. Lower efficiency in a poor offense with subpar quarterback play limited his upside, but the Colts hired new head coach Shane Steichen to change that. The Colts will likely have a rookie quarterback at the helm, and Pittman's efficiency should only increase.
Garrett Wilson, NY Jets
While Garrett Wilson missed the mark on receptions, his efficiency, combined with the 8.6 targets per game clip he achieved, gives him a fantastic shot to break into the top 12 in 2023. Wilson averaged just 64 yards per game, but in an inefficient offense with some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers' inevitable arrival should increase Wilson's target share and efficiency, as well as the passing volume of the offense as a whole.
Chris Olave, New Orleans
Similar to Wilson, Olave found success despite poor quarterback play. Olave was more efficient with his targets. He saw only 7.0 per game but averaged 69.5 yards per game on 4.8 receptions. Derek Carr is a massive upgrade for the New Orleans offense, and few players on the Saints can challenge Olave for targets.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia
Smith averaged 70 yards on 5.6 receptions and 8.0 targets per game in 2022 and just missed the touchdown threshold managers are looking for in a top-12 option. His ability to stay on the field placed him inside the top 12 in overall fantasy points, but any increase in target share would firmly place him among the elite fantasy options in the NFL.
Rookies That Profile Well
While the 2023 wide receiver class is a downgrade from the past few years, a few players could command the volume required to finish inside the top 12. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the consensus No. 1 option here, and his ability to create separation should lead to enough targets to meet these thresholds. Josh Downs is another player who excels at creating separation and winning in various ways, but he doesn't meet the size thresholds. Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers are similar in that regard. Quentin Johnston is a player that needs a good landing spot and a high volume but possesses the highest upside and profiles as a potential top-12 option.
The Dynasty Implications
While the previous installments highlighted the changes in the position, wide receivers have remained consistent over the last two decades. Coveting receivers with 100-reception upside is the easiest path to a top-12 option, and that list is fairly short when looking at depth charts across the league. Leaning into receivers with track records of success remains the wisest option, but coveting young players that could see an increase in target share or efficiency due to new circumstances can also be effective.
Thank you for reading! Please follow and ask any questions @CWilliamsNFL on Twitter. You can also find my articles here. If you're looking for more on wide receivers, check out Dave Kluge's dive into the WR landscape here.
