To contextualize the wide receiver landscape in Dynasty leagues, this article will place every wide receiver into a bucket of similar players. Inside that grouping, the players will be ranked with explanations about how each archetype fits the needs of specific Dynasty rosters. Risk, perceived value, and projected production are all critical factors when assessing the current market.
This article is the third of an offseason series, after following similar methods of assessing the running back and quarterback landscapes.
As with previous articles, this is not to be served as a flat list of rankings. Instead, these groupings will help you understand how to handle each player based on other players in similar situations.
Running backs vs. Quarterbacks vs. Wide Receivers
When previously discussing running backs, the volatile nature of those assets made it difficult. Age and talent are the main factors when assessing that position, as situations and opportunities can change instantly. Evaluating before free agency posed an added challenge, but betting on age and talent alleviates the headache of guessing inconsistent workloads.
With quarterbacks, age and talent are also factors. But contracts, teammates, scheme, and public perception also play a role in evaluation. Outside of a small handful, quarterbacks are rarely guaranteed a starting job beyond one year. Beyond the ultra-premium Dynasty assets, quarterbacks are also relatively volatile in Dynasty.
Regarding prospect analysis, the football monolith best evaluates how wide receivers will translate from college to the pros. Because of that, talent, age, and historical NFL production will be the main factors in assessing this position. Contrary to popular belief, situations and quarterbacks aren't that important, mainly because those external factors often change. Young receivers with strong metrics tend to hold value, even if the production lacks. Wide receiver output is tied closer to raw talent, and early-career production indicates long-term success. The longevity of the position adds to their desirability in Dynasty trade markets.
Relative to quarterbacks and running backs, the depth at the wide receiver positions makes them one of the safer positions to invest in.
Running backs are very dependent on situations that provide volume. And the competition for starting jobs at quarterback keeps that position in a consistent churn. Wide receivers are a bit easier to project for and hold their value longer than other positions. Barring extreme circumstances, a productive wide receiver rarely sees his production disappear like a running back or quarterback could.
However, production comes with an important caveat.
Production doesn’t refer to fantasy points but to the underlying rate metrics. Our Jordan McNamara recently wrote an in-depth article about how wide receivers score. Target volume is king, and good receivers earn a healthy dose of it.
But comparing overall target volume among teams is difficult.
For instance, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers attempted 751 pass attempts in 2022 compared to the Chicago Bears' 377 attempts. The Buccaneers were three pass attempts away from doubling the Bears’ total pass volume. In addition to more volume, better accuracy from Tom Brady made for higher-quality targets. Trying to compare receivers’ season-long totals between these disparate systems is a fool’s errand.
The Buccaneers supported two wide receivers with over 125 targets each, a running back with 83 targets, and three other players with more than 50. The Chicago Bears only had two players garner over 50 targets: Cole Kmet with 69 and Darnell Mooney with 61.
Because of the disproportionate situations receivers find themselves in, it’s better to look at share rates and “routes run” metrics. They are tied closely to long-term production, taking the guessing out of the equation. Situations change quickly in the NFL. A hyper-talented wide receiver in an unfortunate situation would quickly land himself in a better ecosystem, boosting his fantasy output.
Marquise Brown is an excellent example of it working out.
Through Brown’s first three seasons in Baltimore, he averaged 6.9 targets per game. He was a first-round pick in the NFL draft and had a phenomenal profile. But he struggled to produce much in Greg Roman’s offense, which had a run-first philosophy and focused on tight ends in the passing game. His target share was in the mid-to-high-20s (borderline elite), his targets per route consistently ranked inside the top 15, and his yards per route run topped out at a whopping 1.85 in 2020. Despite that, he never finished better than WR22. He was taking a huge slice out of a tiny pie.
Then he was traded to Arizona’s Air Raid system in 2022. Stiffer target competition caused all those rate metrics to dip slightly, but a boost in offensive volume allowed him to set career highs in targets per game (8.9) and fantasy output. If we look solely at the split with a healthy Kyler Murray, Brown saw a ludicrous 10.7 targets per game and was the WR5 in fantasy scoring, a ceiling he could never have accomplished in Baltimore.
Dynasty managers pulled their hair out during Brown’s frustrating years in Baltimore. Patient and savvy managers looked at the usage rates and knew he was a changed situation away from a fantasy explosion. While his short-term outlook with an injured Murray looks bleak, there’s still reason to bet on Brown’s profile as a long-term asset.
Kyle Pitts is an example of a player ready to explode in value.
Looking at Kyle Pitts’ underlying metrics gives us a clearer picture of the type of player he is. You aren’t betting on his production. You’re investing in his elite profile.
I know. He’s not a wide receiver. But the principles still apply. His 7.6 PPR fantasy points per game last year ranked 22nd among all tight ends. However, he was #1 in targets per route run. He was #1 in air yards share. He was #2 in target share. The problem? He was 43rd in routes run. The target quality from Marcus Mariota was abysmal. The anemic Falcons offense was the problem, not Kyle Pitts.
But that situation can change quickly. What if the Falcons trade for Lamar Jackson or Aaron Rodgers? What if Desmond Ridder is better than we expect? What if they move up in the draft and land a superstar rookie quarterback? What if Kyle Pitts is traded to the Chargers, where he can be featured in an explosive offense? It's impossible to predict where or who Pitts will be playing with down the road, but his metrics show us that he is a dominant player.
It’s essential in Dynasty to focus on the players you are selecting and not their situations. Where situations can give you a short-term boost in production, betting on talent sets you up for long-term success. And, after all, that’s the point of building a Dynasty.
Let’s dive in, starting with a player who is in Tier 1 all by himself.
The Justin Jefferson Tier
Some people will scoff at Ja’Marr Chase’s omission from this top tier, but Jefferson’s start to his NFL career has been unparalleled. Through Year 3, Jefferson has amassed 476 targets, 324 receptions, 4,825 yards, and 26 touchdowns. Historically, Randy Moss (4,163) and Odell Beckham Jr (4,122) are the next-closest in yardage to Jefferson’s first three seasons. Sure, Jefferson has the added benefit of a 17-game season over the last two years. But even if we pro-rate away those two extra games, Jefferson’s 4,632 yards would be way ahead of any other receiver in the NFL archives. In 2022, Jefferson led the league in fantasy points, snaps, targets, receptions, and yards. He boasts an elite target share of 28.5% (ninth-best), draws a target on 27% of his routes (17th-best), and his 2.70 yards per route run were behind only Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown. Typically, this type of elite target earner sees his volume near the line of scrimmage. Not Jefferson. His average target depth has been above 10 yards every year of his career. He averages nearly 5.0 yards after the catch per reception. He led the league with 28 targets inside the red zone last year. There’s not much more to be said about Jefferson. He’s an athletic receiver that can separate, catch contested balls, and make plays after the catch. He’s got a path to be the best wide receiver in NFL history and deserves a spot in his own tier ahead of the competition. He’s the 1.01 in single-quarterback leagues and is only behind the elite quarterbacks in Superflex drafts. Whether rebuilding or contending, Jefferson should be a target for your Dynasty roster.
Elite WR1
Ja’Marr Chase could technically be in his micro-tier. But this bucket comprises young players who could challenge Jefferson as a single-season WR1. Of the top-eight per-game scorers in PPR last year, Jefferson, Chase, Brown, and Lamb are the only ones on the preferred side of the age curve. With target share being correlated heavily to fantasy production, it should be no surprise that all of these receivers were also top-eight in target share, each eclipsing 28.6% last year. But the main thing that sets this group apart is the perceived value insulation. Chase has already shown fantastic production throughout his short career and is tied to Joe Burrow for years to come. CeeDee Lamb may not have lived up to his draft stock immediately, but he has surpassed 120 targets and 1,100 yards in back-to-back seasons. He is expected to be a part of Dallas’s long-term plans. And remember the story about Marquise Brown in the introduction? Well, A.J. Brown saw his situation change in 2022 as well. He was traded from the lowly Titans to the Jalen Hurts-led powerhouse in Philadelphia. He set career highs across the board and is tied to the Eagles through 2026. While every Dynasty team can’t be lucky enough to have Jefferson, these are WR1s you can feel optimistic about in your lineup. If you’re rebuilding or contending, there’s never a wrong time to add an Elite WR1.
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