It's hard to believe that the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. This year, I published my first set of full projections at the end of February, which means I've been forecasting this season for over six months. Much can change in six months; that's like a decade in NFL parlance. So, before you finish the draft season, I wanted to share with you the players who have changed my mind and why.
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The Wide Receivers Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Mike Evans (ADP: WR15) is going to end his 1,000-yard streak.
- Cooper Kupp (ADP: WR16) is preferable to Puka Nacua (ADP: WR8).
- Brandon Aiyuk (ADP: WR17) is signed, sealed, and ready to deliver.
- Malik Nabers (ADP: WR23) is a must-have player at his cost.
- Tee Higgins (ADP: WR27) makes a great option in the fifth round.
- George Pickens (ADP: WR28) will have a massive target share.
- Terry McLaurin (ADP: WR29) is the alpha, by default.
- Rashee Rice (ADP: WR33) is back in the circle of trust.
- Calvin Ridley (ADP: WR34) deserves more respect.
- Jayden Reed (ADP: WR36) isn't the Packers No. 1 option.
- Rome Odunze (ADP: WR39) is going to outperform Keenan Allen (ADP: WR30).
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP: WR40) will be the Seahawks best receiver.
- Ladd McConkey (ADP: WR42) isn't going to be a standout.
- Jordan Addison's (ADP: WR43) low ADP is warranted.
- Jameson Williams (ADP: WR46) could be the best value on the board.
- Brian Thomas Jr. (ADP: WR47) warrants more excitement.
- Khalil Shakir (ADP: WR52) is the Bills receiver to target.
- Jahan Dotson (ADP: WR64) bring valuable depth to Philadelphia.
- Ja'Lynn Polk (ADP: WR68) should be the best of the bunch in New England.
- Ray-Ray McCloud (ADP: WR101) won the slot job in Atlanta.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay
Mike Evans (ADP: WR15) is going to end his 1,000-yard streak.
What I Thought: Mike Evans has an astounding ten straight seasons of at least 1,000 yards and is coming off one of his career-best seasons (79 receptions for 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns). With the entire offensive cast returning intact, he's a safe bet to deliver WR1 value yet again.
What I Think: Call this a vibe check, but I'm beginning to doubt the Buccaneers can repeat last year's success without Dave Canales calling plays. The new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, is a far cry from Canales, and we've seen Baker Mayfield play poorly when he doesn't have a masterful play-caller spoon-feeding him. I think Tampa Bay is on a shortlist for teams set to take the biggest fall, which likely means Evans' streak ends.
Cooper Kupp, LA Rams
Cooper Kupp (ADP: WR16) is preferable to Puka Nacua (ADP: WR8).
What I Thought: Cooper Kupp was hitting the age cliff and was hurt last year, and Puka Nacua took over as the new alpha receiver in Los Angeles.
What I Think: While Nacua remains a compelling asset in his own right, he missed a chunk of the summer, and Kupp was back to his old self. Not only was he healthy, but he looked like the best player on the roster again.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco
Brandon Aiyuk (ADP: WR17) is signed, sealed, and ready to deliver.
What I Thought: Brandon Aiyuk would put up numbers no matter where he ended up, but the uncertainty of his 2024 team made drafting him at ADP a risky proposition.
What I Think: Despite all the back and forth, Aiyuk ultimately signed a new four-year, $120 million extension to remain a key part of the 49ers' dynamic offense. He's perfectly fine to target at ADP.
Malik Nabers, NY Giants
Malik Nabers (ADP: WR23) is a must-have player at his cost.
What I Thought: While we knew Marvin Harrison Jr. was going to be funneled a disproportionate number of targets from Kyler Murray in Arizona, Malik Nabers had a longer path to stardom because the Giants are a team still searching for an identity and, more importantly, a good quarterback.
What I Think: Daniel Jones is still a bottom-five starting quarterback, but he's healthy, and the rest of the Giants roster leaves much to be desired. Meanwhile, Nabers has been lights out all summer and is easily the best offensive player on the roster. He should be in line for massive target volume, allowing him to push for top-15 honors as a rookie, even if the targets aren't always high value.
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