It's hard to believe that the NFL regular season is already here, with Week 1 kicking off on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several important drafts to wrap up in the next few days. This year, I released my first set of full projections back in February, so I've been analyzing and forecasting this season for over six months. A lot can change in six months—practically a decade in NFL terms. So, before you close out your draft season, I wanted to share the players who have changed my mind and explain why.
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The Tight Ends Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Evan Engram (ADP: TE8) is the best value among the top 10.
- Fade David Njoku (ADP: TE10).
- Brock Bowers (ADP: TE11) is draftable.
- T.J. Hockenson (ADP: TE14) will miss too much time to prioritize him.
- Taysom Hill (ADP: TE18) is a late-round gem.
- Theo Johnson (ADP: TE33) has the stars align.
- Mike Gesicki (ADP: TE28) is finally ready for relevance.
- Colby Parkinson (ADP: TE29) has an early opportunity to star.
- Jelani Woods (ADP: TE41) isn't a deep sleeper.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville
Evan Engram (ADP: TE8) is the Best Value Among the Top Ten Tight Ends
What I Thought: Engram was terrific last year with 114 receptions, but my initial projections viewed him as a fade due to the additions of Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabriel Davis to the roster, which seemed like a reason to significantly discount Engram's 2024 projections compared to last season.
What I Think: In looking at how drafts have unfolded, Engram is available at an ideal spot because the receivers and running backs going off the board in the same area aren't particularly appealing. While Engram's target share is likely to decrease this year, he has positive touchdown regression potential that could more than offset any loss of targets.
David Njoku, Cleveland
Fade David Njoku (ADP: TE10)
What I Thought: Njoku had a career-best season in 2023, finishing as the fifth-ranked fantasy tight end. The Browns' offense could only improve if Deshaun Watson is finally healthy and focused, and Njoku's position in the pecking order seemed unchallenged.
What I Think: Njoku should be fine, but at his ADP, he's the first tight end drafted who isn't genuinely elite. He's the leader of the “dead zone.” Njoku's breakout season was largely due to Joe Flacco's pass-heavy stretch in the second half of the season. Njoku was ranked TE11 before Flacco took over and rose to TE2 during Flacco's tenure. The Browns are unlikely to throw 40 times per game, as they did with Flacco, making it more likely for Njoku to regress to his previous career averages. This means he has an equal chance of finishing outside the top 12 at his position as he does matching last year's performance.
