Contract Terms
Tom Pelissero reports that AJ Dillon is re-signing with the Green Bay Packers. Financials are currently unavailable, but the deal is rumored to be for one year, pending a physical.
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Fantasy Football Impact
It has been a busy week for the Green Bay backfield. First, they signed Josh Jacobs and released Aaron Jones shortly after. That left Jacobs and Emmanuel Wilson as the only running backs on the roster with a professional carry. With Jacobs likely to carry a heavy workload, it might have been tough to entice a new face to Green Bay. Instead, they brought back a familiar face: AJ Dillon.
While Dillon was only unemployed for just over 24 hours, the role he is signing up for in 2024 could be very different than the one he has held down over the last three seasons. The Packers drafted Dillon back in 2020, and after a quiet rookie season, he has been in a 50/50 split with Aaron Jones ever since. Since 2021, Dillon has averaged 183 carries and 36 targets per season. The issue is that every season since his rookie year also represents a drop in efficiency, going from 5.1 yards per carry in 2020 to 3.4 last season.
With Jacobs' pedigree, we can assume he'll carry the ball more than the 142 carries we saw from Aaron Jones last year. In fact, over his career, Jacobs averages 261 carries per season. Green Bay will want him healthy, so he's unlikely to hit the 300-plus carries he handled in 2022, but 250 feels like a nice round number. It's under the pace he was on last year and should keep him fresh. For more on what Jacobs could mean to the Packers, check out Bob Harris’ reaction to his signing.
Over the last three seasons, the Packers have been remarkably consistent backfield rush attempts, falling between 370 and 410 running back attempts. If we figure 390 attempts, with 30 or so going to the third and fourth back on the depth chart, that only leaves about 110 attempts for Dillon, and that assumes Jacobs caps at 250. That is 70 fewer attempts than he's handled over the last three seasons, and for a guy that only scored two touchdowns as the lead back in 2023, it's volume he can't afford to lose.
Dillon was the RB42 with almost 180 carries last season. Ideally, with less work, we'll see his efficiency improve, but until we see that in action, he'll be a tough pick in a true backup role moving forward.
The Fantasy Football Fallout
Green Bay was always going to bring someone in to play behind Jacobs. In the grand scheme, it's better for Jacobs' fantasy value that it's AJ Dillon and not one of the higher-rated rookies from the draft. Dillon might vulture a touchdown here or there, but the bulk of the work will still go to Josh Jacobs. His value takes no hit and might even be better now.
Dillon's redzone work does present a problem for others who might have hoped to get more involved this season. Last year, he carried the ball 36 times inside the 20 and added one target. Green Bay's rookie tight ends, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, combined for 14 targets and eight receptions. If Dillon had signed elsewhere, that role might have expanded, but it's likely to stay stagnant now, slightly hurting their fantasy appeal.
Stock Watch
Risers
Fallers
Overview
Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and after one day apart, the Packers and AJ Dillon are reunited. Even with the familiar face, it will be a new-look backfield for the Packers. They released Aaron Jones after signing Josh Jacobs to a four-year deal in free agency. Dillon might slot in as more of a backup than the complementary role we've seen him play over the last three seasons.
