Contract Terms
Ian Rapaport is reporting that Antonio Gibson will sign with the New England Patriots. It is a three-year deal worth just over $11 million but with incentives that could increase the value to $17 million.
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Fantasy Football Impact
Gibson leaves for New England after four seasons in Washington. The team drafted him in 2020, and everyone was quick to paint the receiver-turned-running back into a third-down role. However, he turned heads with his rushing ability as a rookie, rushing 170 times for 795 yards and 11 touchdowns. His receiving ability was evident, adding 36 receptions for 247 yards, but it was an afterthought.
In 2021, he upped his usage to 258 carries and 42 receptions, but his efficiency dropped, and a fumbling issue reared its ugly head. The team added Brian Robinson Jr in 2022, and Gibson took a back seat. He was more involved in the passing game, but not enough to give him real fantasy value.
In New England, he'll play either alongside or behind Rhamondre Stevenson. The distinction between those roles will determine his fantasy value. If he plays a complementary role, he could improve on the numbers we saw in Washington and surprise fantasy managers. If he is a backup or change-of-pace back, his value will remain flat compared to what we've seen the last few seasons.
To levy a decent guess at Gibson's role in the offense, let's look at new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt. Van Pelt spent the last four seasons as the offensive coordinator in Cleveland and has experience with a two-back system. The duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt held down the Cleveland backfield from 2020 to 2022, and after Chubb went down last year, it was a two-back system again with Hunt and Jerome Ford.
In his first two seasons, the duties were pretty straightforward. Chubb was the runner, and Hunt handled pass-catching and third downs. Then, in 2022, a shift occurred. Chubb, the clear better back, took over the feature role, and Hunt became more of a change-of-pace backup. Hunt only out-targeted Chubb 44-37. It was a similar story in 2023 when Ford out-carried and out-targeted Hunt.
Why does this matter? Because outside of 2020, when Chubb missed four games, Hunt never finished better than the RB39 in fantasy. While Van Pelt's system will utilize two backs, the better back holds the fantasy value, and in New England, that is Rhamondre Stevenson. Gibson could face a situation identical to the one he left in Washington, and he hasn't finished better than RB28 in the last two seasons.
The Fantasy Football Fallout
Putting it bluntly, Washington replaced Gibson with Austin Ekeler, a better version of Antonio Gibson. The only real fallout there is that there will likely be less passing work for Brian Robinson Jr than last year.
In New England, it will all come down to how they use Gibson and Stevenson. Stevenson has a stockier build, but both backs play between 220 and 230 lbs. Both have also shown proficiency as pass catchers, though we saw a significant dip in volume for Stevenson last season. As mentioned, Alex Van Pelt comes over from Cleveland and has a history of two-back systems.
The most likely scenario is that Stevenson is the primary runner, ceding some passing game work to Gibson. If that means a Nick Chubb-esque role for Stevenson, it should pay dividends in fantasy.
New England has Kevin Harris, JaMycal Hasty, and Ke'Shawn Vaughn behind these two. Harris suffers the most, as he might have had a chance to complement Stevenson entering his third year but will be relegated to the bench again. The better special teams player between Hasty and Vaughn will make the team but have no fantasy value, as Van Pelt's system focuses on its two primary backs.
The addition of Gibson should also benefit the quarterback. The team brought back Jacoby Brissett, who played with Gibson in Washington last season, but they are also expected to grab a high-profile rookie quarterback with the third overall pick. Whoever starts will benefit from having two capable pass-catching running backs.
Stock Watch
Risers
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Jacoby Brissett
- Or whichever rookie quarterback is drafted by New England
Fallers
- Antonio Gibson, probably flat to his last two years in Washington, but not an improvement
- Kevin Harris
- JaMycal Hasty
- Ke'Shawn Vaughn
- Brian Robinson Jr, because this opened the door for Austin Ekeler
Overview
After one year with Ezekiel Elliott, the Patriots have moved on and paired Rhamondre Stevenson with Antonio Gibson in 2024. Gibson gets a three-year deal in New England.