Contract Terms
Baker Mayfield confirmed multiple reports that he and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are close to finalizing a new contract. The quarterback's deal will be for three years and worth a reported $100 million, with $50 million in guaranteed money and another $15 million available in incentives.
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Fantasy Football Impact
Mayfield joined the Bucs last year after splitting 2022 between the Panthers and Rams and went on to have an impressive 2023. The former first-round draft pick threw for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions while helping spark Tampa Bay to a third straight NFC South title and an appearance in the NFC Divisional Round.
He'll now get a chance to build on that along with wide receiver Mike Evans, who signed a new two-year deal with the team earlier this week.
"I wanted a chance to come back," Mayfield said via Adam Schefter of ESPN. "I love coach [Todd] Bowles and the staff. I'm happy to be here and I want to win more in the postseason."
By agreeing to a deal with Mayfield on the eve of free agency, the Bucs avoided starting over at QB again. More importantly, fantasy managers now have something concrete to work with at every position in Tampa.
It all starts with Mayfield, whose 28 touchdowns during the regular season were the seventh most in the league. Per ESPN.com, his 2.8 touchdown-to-interception ratio tied with San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy for ninth-best in the league. Those 4,044 passing yards were also ninth-best and the most in a single season of Mayfield's career.
He also posted a career-best 64.3 percentage completion percentage and finished the season as fantasy's QB11 in total scoring. His per-game total (16.1 fantasy points per game) was less impressive, but the upside he brought was obvious.
Nonetheless, Mayfield, who has passed for 20,322 yards with 130 touchdowns and 74 interceptions in his career, is going as QB24 in early Underdog and BestBall 10s drafts in anywhere from Rounds 13 through 15.
Expect that price -- and his Footballguys 2024 Draft Ranking, where he's QB21 -- to rise at least somewhat with news of this deal.
The Fantasy Football Fallout
It's worth noting that a critical member of last year's staff, offensive coordinator Dave Canales, was hired to be head coach of the Panthers. Mayfield made it known at the time that who the Buccaneers' next offensive coordinator was would be a factor in a potential return. Bowles followed through by hiring Liam Coen to fill that role. Coen was the Rams OC when Mayfield played the final five games of the 2022 season for an injury-plagued 5-12 squad. So there's a comfort level there, which should benefit all involved.
Meanwhile, Evans and Mayfield get the opportunity to continue working together. That arrangement resulted in Evans's WR7 finish last season, as the veteran wideout hauled in 76 passes for 1,233 yards and 13 touchdowns. While that touchdown total might be hard to duplicate, it's not a reach to believe Evans' initial WR20 Footballguys 2024 Draft Ranking -- which also happens to mirror his current Average Draft Position (ADP) on Underdog -- will inch up. That ADP will undoubtedly rise, given this clarity.
Chris Godwin's WR34 ranking will likely persist; it's hard to forecast much upside beyond that with Evans back. The same is true for tight end Cade Otton's TE22 ranking. Godwin and Otton could outperform expectations, but fellow drafters are unlikely to pay up to determine if that's the case.
Finally, the news is good for Rachaad White, who finished as fantasy's RB4 last season after ranking in the top ten in carries (second), targets (ninth), and red zone touches (ninth). As FantasyPros noted, White also finished eighth in overall target volume among running backs. His initial Footballguys 2024 Draft Ranking of RB8 seems more than reasonable, especially with Mayfield returning to provide some continuity for this offense. As Footballguy Dave Kluge suggested on X this past Monday (before today's news), "I still have some concerns about his rushing efficiency, but he did more than enough in the passing game to quell those."
Beyond that, Mayfield's signing leaves Kirk Cousins as the clear-cut top option at the position in free agency. Other available talent at the position could benefit from Mayfield remaining in place, but Cousins is the domino that needs to fall to get that ball rolling.
Stock Watch
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Overview
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and quarterback Baker Mayfield agreed to a three-year deal worth a reported $100 million, with $50 million guaranteed. Mayfield will get a chance to build on the success he achieved in Tampa in 2023 when he posted career bests by throwing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions. He finished the season well inside the top 12 among fantasy QBs, while his play helped Rachaad White and Mike Evans finish inside the top 10 at their respective positions. All involved benefit from the continuity Mayfeield's return offers.
