Caleb Williams: Franchise Savior but Fantasy Also Ran?

Jason Wood details Caleb Williams' 2024 fantasy outlook.

Jason Wood's Caleb Williams: Franchise Savior but Fantasy Also Ran? Jason Wood Published 08/12/2024

When the Chicago Bears selected Caleb Williams with the first overall pick in April, few doubted he was ready for the moment. Coming out of Gonzaga in the Washington D.C. area, he was a 5-star recruit and one of the top high school prospects at any position. As we know, he initially chose Oklahoma to play for Lincoln Riley and followed Riley to USC, where he started for two seasons, including a Heisman Trophy-winning campaign in 2022. 

Unlike many years when there was debate about who should be selected No. 1, it was clear for months leading up to the draft that Williams would be the Bears' choice. Now, Williams has an opportunity to reshape how we think of the Bears' offense completely. 

The Worst Passing Team in NFL History

In the lead-up to the draft, NFL pundits said things like, "The Bears have never had a great quarterback," but does NFL history back up that reputation?

Per-Game Passing Stats, NFL Franchises (Super Bowl Era -- 1966 through 2023), Sorted by Passer Rating

FromToTeamGmsCmpAttCmp%YdsTDIntTD%Int%RateSkSk%Y/A
20022023HOU35520.633.062.5%218.81.340.894.1%2.7%86.32.67.9%6.63
19662023DAL89918.931.460.2%215.01.481.074.7%3.4%84.32.37.3%6.84
19662023SFO89919.131.760.3%214.41.481.044.7%3.3%84.32.37.2%6.76
19662023GNB89919.232.259.6%213.71.571.104.9%3.4%83.62.37.3%6.64
19952023JAX46720.133.460.1%209.91.240.863.7%2.6%82.12.67.8%6.29
19662023KAN89918.331.058.9%203.01.320.964.3%3.1%82.02.37.3%6.55
19662023MIN89919.432.359.9%210.61.431.114.4%3.4%81.92.57.6%6.51
19962023BAL45119.833.060.1%204.81.320.914.0%2.8%81.72.36.9%6.21
19762023SEA75918.631.658.9%203.21.421.054.5%3.3%81.42.68.2%6.43
19682023CIN87018.731.659.1%202.71.361.014.3%3.2%81.32.47.7%6.41
19672023NOR88519.632.759.8%213.61.421.154.3%3.5%80.92.26.6%6.53
19662023IND89919.032.259.1%210.21.411.104.4%3.4%80.92.16.6%6.53
19662023MIA89918.832.058.8%208.31.421.134.4%3.5%80.32.06.3%6.52
19662023WAS89918.531.958.2%205.91.361.064.3%3.3%80.02.37.1%6.46
19662023NWE89918.632.257.8%209.61.441.134.5%3.5%79.82.27.0%6.51
19662023LAC89919.833.758.6%225.71.451.244.3%3.7%79.72.16.2%6.70
19662023LVR89918.031.457.2%206.41.451.194.6%3.8%79.12.57.9%6.56
19662023LAR89918.431.758.0%205.61.331.124.2%3.5%78.92.37.2%6.49
19662023ATL89918.131.258.1%198.81.321.134.2%3.6%78.72.88.9%6.37
19662023DEN89918.532.157.5%208.41.371.164.3%3.6%78.52.57.7%6.49
19952023CAR46718.932.358.4%202.31.251.043.9%3.2%78.52.57.7%6.26
19662023PHI89918.833.057.1%204.31.391.074.2%3.3%78.42.88.4%6.20
19662023PIT89917.430.557.0%197.51.321.164.3%3.8%77.42.37.4%6.46
19662023DET89918.432.057.3%198.41.261.133.9%3.5%76.32.68.3%6.20
19662023NYG89917.931.556.9%196.21.241.113.9%3.5%76.12.58.0%6.23
19762023TAM75918.832.757.3%204.71.291.183.9%3.6%76.02.47.2%6.25
19662023TEN89917.831.057.4%195.51.221.174.0%3.8%75.92.37.4%6.31
19662023BUF89817.630.956.9%191.21.291.214.2%3.9%75.22.47.8%6.19
19662023CLE85117.831.556.4%194.21.241.223.9%3.9%74.02.47.6%6.17
19662023ARI89918.733.156.6%205.01.211.253.7%3.8%73.82.57.6%6.19
19662023NYJ89917.831.456.6%193.61.201.233.8%3.9%73.62.47.6%6.16
19662023CHI89916.729.756.4%175.01.071.183.6%4.0% 71.42.48.0%5.89

Chicago Datapoints:

  • 32nd (Worst) in Passer Rating (71.4)
  • 32nd in Yards per Attempt (5.89)
  • 27th in Sack Rate (8.0%)
  • 32nd in Interception Rate (4.0%)
  • 32nd in Touchdown Rate (3.6%)
  • 32nd in Passing Yards (175.0)
  • 32nd in Completion Rate (56.4%)

It's been HARD for Windy City residents. But even the worst franchises occasionally luck into greatness for a season or two, right? Not the Bears, at least not when it comes to their quarterbacks. 

Top 25 Chicago Bears Quarterback Seasons, Sorted by Passing Yards (Super Bowl Era)

RankPlayerSeasonAgeGmsCmpAttCmp%YdsTDIntTD%Int%SkY/A
1Erik Kramer1995311631552260.3%3,83829105.6%1.9%157.4
2Jay Cutler2014311537056166.0%3,81228185.0%3.2%386.8
3Jay Cutler2009261633655560.5%3,66627264.9%4.7%356.6
4Jay Cutler2015321531148364.4%3,65921114.3%2.3%297.6
5Jay Cutler2010271526143260.4%3,27423165.3%3.7%527.6
6Mitch Trubisky2018241428943466.6%3,22324125.5%2.8%247.4
7Rex Grossman2006261626248054.6%3,19323204.8%4.2%216.7
8Mitch Trubisky2019251532651663.2%3,13817103.3%1.9%386.1
9Jim Harbaugh1991281627547857.5%3,12115163.1%3.3%246.5
10Jay Cutler2012291525543458.8%3,03319144.4%3.2%387.0
11Erik Kramer1997331527547757.7%3,01114142.9%2.9%256.3
12Kyle Orton2008261527246558.5%2,97218123.9%2.6%276.4
13Jay Cutler2013301122435563.1%2,62119125.4%3.4%197.4
14Justin Fields2023241322737061.4%2,5621694.3%2.4%446.9
15Jim Harbaugh1992291620235856.4%2,48613123.6%3.4%316.9
16Jim McMahon1985261317831356.9%2,39215114.8%3.5%267.6
17Vince Evans1981261619543644.7%2,35411202.5%4.6%235.4
18Jay Cutler2011281018231458.0%2,3191374.1%2.2%237.4
19Jim Miller2001301422839557.7%2,29913103.3%2.5%115.8
20Dave Krieg1996381322637759.9%2,27814123.7%3.2%146.0
21Justin Fields2022231519231860.4%2,24217115.3%3.5%557.1
22Mitch Trubisky2017231219633059.4%2,193772.1%2.1%316.6
23Jim McMahon1983241417529559.3%2,18412134.1%4.4%427.4
24Jim Harbaugh1990271418031257.7%2,1781063.2%1.9%317.0
25Jack Concannon1970271419438550.4%2,13016184.2%4.7%245.5

All hail, Erik Kramer? It's hard to believe that a nearly 30-year-old season would be the franchise's statistical best, but Kramer's 1995 totals remain the benchmark. 

  • The Bears have NEVER had a 4,000-yard passer
  • Chicago has NEVER had a 30-touchdown passer
  • The team has never attempted 600 passes
  • The Bears have never averaged 8.0 yards per attempt

Jay Cutler is inarguably the team's most accomplished passer:

  • 4 of the top 5 seasons
  • 5 of the top 10 seasons
  • 6 of the top 13 seasons
  • 7 of the top 20 seasons

For comparison, there have been 108 quarterback seasons with at least 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in the modern era, while the Bears have none as a franchise.

  • Peyton Manning did it 9 times
  • Drew Brees also did it 9 times
  • Tom Brady did it 8 times
  • Aaron Rodgers has done it 7 times
  • Philip Rivers did it 6 times
  • Patrick Mahomes has done it 4 times

Can Caleb Williams Set the Record as a Rookie?

With the Bears quarterback's historic ineptitude on full display, we can say definitively that it would be a colossal disappointment if Caleb Williams doesn't rewrite the Bears record books over his career. But should we bet on him doing so as a rookie? Let's look at recent history:

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