DFS First Look: Week 3

Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we’ll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 3 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We’ll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. In future weeks, we will go deeper into player utilization trends.

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 2.

Note: Kansas City at Atlanta is only included on the FanDuel Main Slate. It is not included on the DraftKings Main Slate.

• Upper left: The teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still expected to score more than the average team on the slate. This is an easy way to identify the games most likely to turn into shootouts. We have quite a few potential shootouts this week with high totals. The Eagles open as favorites at New Orleans but the line quickly swung towards the Saints, who are now favored by 3.0 in a game with a 49.5-point total. DeVonta Smith should be popular. The Cowboys are home underdogs against the 0-2 Ravens in a game with a 48.5-point total. CeeDee Lamb is off to a relatively slow start. He could get going this week. The Cardinals appear in this quadrant for the second-straight week. In Week 3, Arizona is a 3.0-point home underdog to the Lions in a game with the highest total (51.5) on the slate. Last week, they smashed in a similar spot with Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr.. having big weeks. 
• Upper right: These are the teams favored and expected to score an above-average amount of points. In both cash games and GPPs, we want to focus heavily on the teams in this quadrant. This should be an especially fruitful part of the slate to look for running backs, given that we should expect positive game scripts. This quadrant is loaded this week. The 49ers are heavy 7.0-point favorites on the road against a beat up Rams squad. With both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel Sr.. out, the carries and targets should be more concentrated. Jordan Mason should again be chalky. The Lions have the highest total on the slate. This could be the week Sam LaPorta makes a fantasy impact.
• Bottom right: These are teams that are favored but expected to score below-average points. Typically, we are interested in running backs (positive game scripts are expected) from these teams, but given the low totals, we should be a bit suspicious of the passing games. The Titans are 3.0-point home favorites agaisnt the Packers and Tony Pollard has been dominating the backfield touches (22 to 8 for Tyjae Spears last week). 
• Bottom left: This is where we want to be careful and only roster players we feel incredibly strongly about. The teams here are underdogs and are not expected to score many points. We have some otherwise talented offenses that are projected to struggle without their starting quarterbacks (Packers and Dolphins). You have to love De'Von Achane's role, but with Miami sitting as 4.0-point road underdogs with a relatively low game total (41.5), it makes the decision whether to play him much more difficult.

Quarterback

• We have another week in which the Top 3 PPD values on FanDuel are dual-threat quarterbacks. Deshaun Watson was solid last week due to cashing in a rushing touchdown and has a nice matchup agaisnt the Giants. I will still have a hard time clicking that button. 
• Are the Cowboys a defense we need to avoid in daily fantasy? It did not look like a unit to be scared of in Week 2 with the Saints offense dominating. Can Lamar Jackson find similar success?

• All but one of the Top 8 PPD values are priced at or below $5,500 in Week 3. The vast majority of builds are going to include one of these salary-saving quarterbacks. Paying up for Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, or Kyler Murray will help you craft a more unique build based upon salary allocation.
• Geno Smith has been very good this season. While the Miami matchup is not ideal, Smith feels like the safest bet of the low-priced quarterbacks based upon his level of play in the first two weeks. 

Running Back

• Jordan Mason's price has sky-rocketed, but he still projects as the top value on the slate. The 49ers are huge favorites and the expected absence of Deebo Samuel Sr. should guarantee Mason has 20+ carries yet again.
• Tony Pollard stands out as a strong play at his sub-$7K price tag, especially if Tyjae Spears' minor injury limits his practice participation this week. 

• The Colts are a defense we want to target this season. Plus, D'Andre Swift has dominated running back touches through the first two weeks. On paper, the play makes sense. However, the Bears offensive line has struggled. This is one of those spots worth really digging into last week. It feels like a bit of a trap, the same way Kyren Williams was last week.
• In cash games, Jordan Mason and Tony Pollard look like the players to target. I am high on both for Week 2. 

Wide Receiver

• Week 3 should be a great week for tournaments. It is hard to see any single wide receiver emerging as overwhelming chalk in the same way Cooper Kupp did last season. Rashee Rice and Brandon Aiyuk should be popular, but my suspicion is that GPP ownership will be flatter than normal. We have quite a few strong options, but no player who checks every box in terms of usage and matchup.
• Rashid Shaheed is averaging 77.5 receiving yards and 1.0 touchdowns in first quarters this season. The problem has been that he has done next to nothing after the first quarter. If the Eagles offense can keep up with the surprisingly explosive Saints offense, we could finally get a full four quarters of Shaheed getting targets.

• Similar to FanDuel, there are a number of strong options in Week 3 at wide receiver. However, there is not one player who truly stands out from the pack. Malik Nabers was dominant in Week 2 but goes from the dream matchup (Commanders) to one of the most difficult wide receiver matchups in the league (Browns). 
• With Deebo Samuel Sr. out, both Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings are great tournament options. The Rams pass defense blew multiple coverages last week against the Rams.

Tight End

• There are three tight ends on my FanDuel target list this week: Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and George Kittle. 

• Roster building is much easier with a cheap tight end, but it is impossible to trust the volume for any of the inexpensive tight ends. I would love to find a cheap tight end to believe in between now and Sunday. If none emerges give me Brock Bowers or George Kittle. Kittle's on/off splits with Deebo Samuel Sr. off the field are extremely impressive. He should be chalk on DraftKings.

Defense