DFS First Look: Week 10

Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we'll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 10 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 10.

Note: The Sunday night Lions-Texans game is on the FanDuel Main Slate but is not included on the DraftKings Main Slate.

Upper Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate's average, making them prime candidates for potential shootouts. The Buccaneers are 5.5-point home underdogs against the 49ers, but this game's 50.5-point total is the highest on the slate, indicating clear shootout potential. Cade Otton stands out as a strong play once again. The Jets are slight 1.5-point road underdogs at Arizona. The Cardinals give up the 11th-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers and the 7th-most points to opposing running backs, positioning New York's key skill players well this week. Finally, the Texans are 3.5-point home underdogs in the Sunday Night Football game (FanDuel only), providing a strong game environment with likely solid ownership on the FanDuel main slate.

Upper Right: These teams are favored and expected to score above-average points, making them key targets for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts in this quadrant make it ideal for targeting running backs. The 49ers stand out in their matchup against the Buccaneers, who are allowing the 5th-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs. Deciding how to approach Christian McCaffrey (assuming he is active) will be crucial this slate. The Buccaneers also give up the 3rd-most DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends, which could make George Kittle a popular pick.

Bottom Right: These teams are favored but expected to score below average. Running backs from this quadrant are worth considering due to anticipated positive game scripts; however, caution is advised when selecting players from their passing games given the low projected totals. Notably, no team favored this week has a below-average implied team total.

Bottom Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs and expected to score below average, so it's best to roster only players in whom you have high confidence.

Week 10 Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages as valuable data points. In this section, we'll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 10 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• The table above highlights why the Week 10 main slate is expected to be lower-scoring than usual. Only two teams have implied totals more than 7% higher than their season-to-date scoring averages.

• With a relatively unexciting slate and few standout matchups, ownership may concentrate on the limited appealing options. One of those spots is the 49ers matchup against Tampa Bay. With an implied total of 27.8 points, San Francisco's key players are likely to be popular picks.

• Justin Herbert has been performing at an elite level since the Week 5 bye, averaging 286.8 passing yards per game over his last four games and achieving an impressive adjusted yards per attempt of 9.45.

Week 10 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 10 Boost"). For the teams below, that scoring boost will be negative. Here are the teams projected to score worse than their season averages:

• Only two teams in Week 10 have implied point totals that are 7% higher than their season-to-date averages. In contrast, nine teams have implied totals at least 8% lower than their season averages.

• The teams with significantly lower implied totals include some of the league's top offenses and best fantasy performers.

• The Commanders, led by star rookie Jayden Daniels, face a tough matchup against the Steelers.

• Josh Allen and the Bills have an appealing matchup against the Colts, but the implied team total suggests a more conservative scoring outlook.

• Similarly, while the Jaguars defense isn't particularly intimidating, the Vikings have a modest implied team total of 25.5 points.

DraftKings

Let's take a position-by-position look at the top point per dollar ("PPD") plays on the DraftKings main slate. The projections shown are based on the Footballguys consensus and broken out by category. For example, the quarterback position shows projected passing fantasy points ("Pass Proj"), rushing fantasy points ("Rush Proj)", and overall projected fantasy points ("Proj"). Each table also includes the team's implied team total ("Total").

Quarterback

• The two players who stand out the most this week are Brock Purdy and Justin Herbert:

  • The Buccaneers give up the most DraftKings points per game (24.0) to opposing quarterbacks. With Brandon Aiyuk out for the season, the rest of the 49ers offense is finally healthy after a Week 10 bye. Purdy offers solid value with his mid-tier price tag in Week 10. It is worth noting that Purdy has 83 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns on 8.0 carries per game over his last two. He has sneaky dual-threat upside.
  • Herbert also presents great value, averaging 286.8 passing yards per game since the Week 5 bye.

• Although Footballguys consensus projections favor Caleb Williams this week, he's hard to trust. He seemed to gain momentum with two big wins in Weeks 5 and 6, but he has struggled significantly since the Week 7 bye. Over his last two games, Williams has averaged only 174 passing yards with no touchdowns and a low completion rate of 49.2%.

Running Back

• Alvin Kamara is a cash-game lock with his high usage in both the run and pass game. He's had six straight games with at least five receptions and averages 8.7 targets per game.

• D'Andre Swift is a high-floor option due to consistent rushing usage (16-21 carries in each of the past six games) and a favorable matchup against the Patriots. His passing game usage has fluctuated, but he was targeted six times last week.

• Paying up for Kamara and Saquon Barkley in Week 10 could mirror past strategies of splurging on elite RBs like Le'Veon Bell and Christian McCaffrey. Both Kamara and Barkley are well-priced, with Barkley facing a Dallas defense that's allowed the 4th-most DraftKings points to opposing backs.

Wide Receiver

Tight End

• The two most popular plays are likely to come from the same game: George Kittle has an elite matchup against a Buccaneers defense allowing the third-most DraftKings points to tight ends and recently gave up season highs of 14 catches and 100 yards to Travis Kelce. Meanwhile, Cade Otton has averaged 8.3 catches, 86 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns per game over his last three.

• Taysom Hill was a top play last week and is in a similarly strong spot for Week 10. He recorded five carries for 19 yards, a touchdown, and four catches for 41 yards on five targets. At just $4K, he's an excellent value.

Defense

FanDuel

Let's take a position-by-position look at the top point per dollar ("PPD") plays on the FanDuel main slate. The projections shown are based on the Footballguys consensus and broken out by category. For example, the quarterback position shows projected passing fantasy points ("Pass Proj"), rushing fantasy points ("Rush Proj"), and overall projected fantasy points ("Proj"). Each table also includes the team's implied team total ("Total").

Quarterback

• Brock Purdy is a standout option this week in the 49ers-Buccaneers matchup, which offers the best game environment for Week 10. Purdy has been effective on the ground, and with his weapons now healthy, his passing potential is even higher.

• Jayden Daniels faces a tough test against the Steelers defense in a classic “unstoppable force versus immovable object” matchup. Pittsburgh allows just 13.0 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, but Daniels has scored at least 19.9 FanDuel points in each of his last six full games.

Running Back

• Alvin Kamara is a cash-game lock on FanDuel, especially at his price point. Surprisingly, he's priced lower than Bijan Robinson and more than $1,000 cheaper than Saquon Barkley.

• J.K. Dobbins remains undervalued, playing at least 65% of the snaps in each of his last six games. In the Chargers' five wins, he has averaged 100.8 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns on 6.1 yards per carry. Los Angeles is a solid 7.5-point home favorite this week.

Wide Receiver

• DeAndre Hopkins is the top cash-game lock on the FanDuel main slate. He's underpriced by at least $1,000 after his breakout performance in the Chiefs offense on Monday night, where he posted eight catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns.
• Khalil Shakir has a high floor. He has at least six catches in each of his last three games. However, in FanDuel's 0.5 PPR scoring, the ceiling is questionable. Shakir has not found the end zone since Week 3.

Tight End

• Cade Otton has to be the choice in cash games. He has three straight games with at least eight catches and 77 yards. He's the go-to target for Baker Mayfield with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined.

Defense