NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Theory
Vegas clearly likes the Ravens’ bounce-back from that 0-2 start. They’re given just about even neutral-site odds – technically, they’re -2.5 thanks to home-field – against the unbeaten Bills. It would be foolish to predict anything but a tight, one-score game that’s decided late, probably by a dazzling quarterback play. To me, that makes it sensible to target Ravens a little more than my gut tells me to. Lamar Jackson looks like the safest overall play, and his weapons look poised to overperform relative to last week.
Injury Report
Both teams are exceptionally healthy tonight.
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