NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Scripting & Roster Construction
It's a good thing DraftKings is offering a sizable prize pool for this one, because why else would we tune in to watch Spencer Rattler versus Bo Nix? Vegas is projecting a low-scoring game, with Denver predicted to win 20-17 against the injury-riddled (see details below) Saints. With key injuries and strong defensive matchups on both sides, there isn't much to like in this Showdown contest. As a result, there’s strong reasoning to take a contrarian approach and hope your roster choices hit paydirt.
For roster construction, leaning heavily on Alvin Kamara, the defenses, and the kickers seems like the right strategy this week. While it may not make for an exciting Thursday night game to watch, excitement doesn’t always translate into tournament success in DFS contests. The key to winning lineups will likely come from picking the right tertiary receiver who manages to find the end zone—be sure to check out the 'under the radar' section below for my top recommendations. As for team distribution, a 4-2 or 5-1 split of Broncos-to-Saints players feels like the right strategy.
Injury Roundup
New Orleans has been hit hard by injuries lately. Last week, Derek Carr (oblique) missed the Saints' game against Tampa Bay and is trending toward missing this one as well. Additionally, the Saints' top two receivers, Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee), both missed practice on Wednesday, which doesn't bode well for their passing game in this matchup. With both Taysom Hill and right guard Cesar Ruiz also missing practice, there isn’t much to like about the Saints' offense heading into this contest.
On the other hand, the Broncos come into this game with only one major injury concern. Patrick Surtain II (concussion) hasn’t practiced yet this week and is likely to miss the game. However, the absence of the 2023 Pro Bowl cornerback is less of a worry, given the numerous injuries plaguing the Saints' offense.
_(1000_x_500_px)_png)