The New Reality No. 225: Dynasty Trade Deadline

The dynasty trade deadline begins in some leagues as early as the Week 12 kickoff, roughly two weeks away. The key window is upon dynasty teams to explore team direction-specific trades, whether in or out for the 2024 season. Reference New Reality 219, which breaks down how to assess your team strength beyond a win-low record. Also, hedge on the side of contending. With five weeks to go in the regular season for most dynasty leagues, even being out of the sixth spot (typical playoff cut-off) by two games offers a legitimate chance to make a run. Be realistic but optimistic.

Also, something Jordan McNamara and I discussed frequently on the Footballguys Dynasty Show in the past was the big difference between not contending this season and still maintaining a focus on contending the following season. Making a trade tilted for the future beyond the current season is different than gutting a team and creating a steeper uphill climb to compete the following year.

Here are suggested target players, at each position, by team direction with their likely cost:

Contending Teams

The biggest pieces of advice for contending team trades are:

Make a dynasty trade. Carefully select player profiles that are durable beyond 2024, ideally aiding your title journey for multiple seasons. Generally, older productive players are the ideal subset as their price is a fraction of their younger peers who are similarly productive due to age erosion in the trade market.

Older running backs are typically some of the more treacherous acquisitions if paying a premium, which is why the suggested roster-building methodology includes strongly using the waiver wire, plus drafting them in rookie drafts, preventing the need to trade for the position.

If trading away a future pick (as a contender), include 2025 picks instead of 2026. The phrase that applies here is "control the controllable." The known is you are a contender this year - the biggest factor to where those 2025 picks reside within the round. The 2026 picks are unknown, especially relative to the data points known for 2025 picks. Being nine weeks into this season is a significant advantage to projecting pick ranges compared to a null set of data yet known from the 2025 season.

QB Geno Smith, Seattle

Smith has been a regular recommendation for contending team acquisition for the past two or three years. His dynasty trade cost has always been tempered since becoming Seattle's starter, and his performance has been rock-solid from an underlying metrics perspective. A key number to track quarterback level in their career is the ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays. Anything above 1.0 is above the NFL average, and above 1.5 is a strong NFL quarterback. Geno Smith was 1.52 last season and 1.80 through Week 9 this season. The weapons are sound in Seattle, even if they lose Tyler Lockett in the offseason. Offer a 2nd or 2nd+ for Smith if without Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, or just need supplementation at the position.