The season has enough sample size to draw conclusions about NFL offenses and player utilization. However, the fantasy season is barreling toward the business section of the calendar, where at least 2-3 teams in a league are looking toward 2027 already. Here are the key NFL and fantasy observations at the tight end position:
One exercise and threshold test to identify underrated and overrated tight ends is comparing players to the historical average markers for baseline usage and efficiency. Here is what this level of tight end in fantasy averages since 2010:
Top 3 Tight Ends
- 33 routes per game. (RPG)
- 2.07 yards per route run. (YPRR)
- 24% targets per route run. (TPRR)
Top 10 Tight Ends
- 30 routes per game.
- 1.68 yards per route run.
- 21% targets per route run.
Top 3 Qualifiers Across the Board
- Brock Bowers: 39 RPG is unreal volume for his 2.31 YPR and 24% combination. Imagine prime George Kittle or Travis Kelce here for Bowers. He has an easy profile to project a historic season at the position.
Top 10 Qualifiers Across the Board
- Trey McBride: The overall YPRR efficiency is lagging (1.67), but his target earnings are 40 RPG and 26% TPRR are elite, making a top-three finish a breeze this season. His career YPRR is 1.77, so he's not an elite option historically but fits the WR1-for-his-team elusive marker.
Notable Tight Ends with Flaws
- Mark Andrews: Only his 22% TPRR hits a top-10 threshold this season. A career 1.98 YPRR efficiency monster sits at 1.22 YPRR and is still low in routes (24 RPG) despite Isaiah Likely being gone.
- Dalton Kincaid: 2.35 YPRR and 22% TPRR are elite 'lead the position' type markers. However, 22 RPG is tough to finish higher than TE3-4-5 overall historically.
- Sam LaPorta: The anti-Kincaid, where LaPorta has a robust 34 RPG but has merely been above-average in his career (and this year) in efficiency with 1.64 YPRR. Jameson Williams' breakout as the WR2 in the offense has affected LaPorta's upside ever since his rookie season.
- Tucker Kraft: His numbers are rising from a ramp-up in the early weeks of the season to 29 RPG and 21% TPRR through seven weeks, but the lynchpin to hitting strong TE1 thresholds will likely be if Christian Watson or Matthew Golden miss time this season.
- Dalton Schultz: Solid across the board, but his markers (26 RPG, 1.75 YPRR) point to a streamer more than an impact option, especially with more quality depth for Houston at wide receiver.
- Tyler Warren: More volume than efficiency this season with 33 RPG and 22% TPRR. His career 1.58 YPRR (1.30 this season) is a marker of a tight end consistently in the top 10 but will struggle to challenge the top of the position.
- Brenton Strange: Like Dalton Schultz, Strange is solid across the board, but strong wide receivers will sap Strange's ceiling outside of 1-2 injuries at the position.
- Travis Kelce: 2.04 YPRR is on par with his career average, but strangely his TPRR is down this season despite notable wide receiver weakness on the team. His previous elite route volume has waned as well to 28 RPG. Kelce will still have high-end TE1 moments but mixed with lesser results more often in this bounce-back season.
- T.J. Hockenson: His 1.98 YPRR and 26% TPRR are an elite combination, but 20 RPG is a tough volume ceiling marker to navigate around for anything better than TE5-8 for a fantasy finish.
- Isaiah Likely: Strong 33 RPG and 26% TPRR point to a high TE1 finish, but his 1.69 YPRR will likely hold him back from challenging the top of the position.
- Kenyon Sadiq: Multiple games of flashes and his 1.59 YPRR and 22% TPRR combination point to a quality projection later in the season. His 15 RPG is a clear limitation with Mason Taylor firmly in the mix at 21 RPG and the Jets' wide receivers pointing up with Omar Cooper Jr. flashing and Adonai Mitchell back from injury.
- Dallas Goedert: Tanner McKee has not been a detriment to Goedert's fantasy viability in recent weeks, and his 1.80 YPRR and 23% TPRR point to an easy TE1 finish for the rest of the season.
- George Kittle: When Kittle's career is over, the 'what if' will be if Kittle consistently had even 30 RPG in his career, as his 2.35 career YPRR and 23% TPRR rival any tight end in history. Kittle is besting those markers this season at 2.41/26% on just 25 RPG. If only Kittle was not as good of a blocker...
- Chig Okonkwo: Pointing up with opportunity as Terry McLaurin is out for the season. Okonkwo needs to improve his 1.34 YPRR and 16% TPRR in upcoming weeks.
Notable Tight Ends Hitting No Thresholds
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